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Research has shown that the dominant tone of public sentiment -reflected in television reports, newspaper columns, and public opinion polls – mirrors the anxiety, pessimism or optimism of any Presidential election outcome in any democratic dispensation. But, from investors’ perspective, the capital market is the first place to look at how the winner is received. Not only does the capital market provide a valuable insight into the national mood of an election outcome, it provides something more abstract and more compelling.
So, immediately the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu declared President Muhammadu winner of the February 23 Presidential election, the next day, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was in a state of shock as if there was mourning in the land. It was like something close to melancholia, a serious collapse of self-esteem.
The troubling impact of this was as if the winner didn’t win fair and square, or to use the words of these regional leaders- Prof.Ango Abdullahi, Chief Edwin Clark, Nnia Nwodo, Ayo Adebanjo, who in their statement – said that Buhari’s victory over Atiku Abubakar, was “illegitimate”. I do not agree with them, because, only the court can say so, definitively. However, the mood in the capital market was that of anguish. It was bearish. Within two days, Wednesday and Thursday, last week, investors lost over N295bn. That tells a lot, doesn’t it? Banking stock took the most hammering. It was the worst nightmare since June 2016. In a sense, it showed, according to Business Day report, investors’ disappointment at the defeat of Atiku, who they considered as “market-friendly”.
An index of Nigeria’s ten largest stocks reportedly dropped 4.6 percent by the close of work last Thursday while the country’s benchmark stocks index retreated for a third day, last Friday. The Lagos NSE laggers by index points were Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB), which dropped 6.9 percent, Zenith Bank stock fell 4 percent and Nigerian Breweries PLC down 4.5 percent. Nonetheless, this negative development from the market did not mean much, if anything at all, to the APC supporters, some of whom partied all night, some got themselves drunk, and in their revelry and stupor, ran over some of their own in some parts of Lagos and elsewhere in the country.
It must be acknowledged that every electoral victory, whether legitimate or illegitimate, carries both opportunities and dangers. The consequence of President Buhari’s triumph in a sense, perhaps for the first time, is not deeply concealed from his conscious awareness. He probably has sensed that the mood and circumstances, coupled with the unusual disunity of national mood, the desire for some renewal of purpose, come with perilous times in the next four years for the country and the citizens. It is therefore appropriate to give him credit to have acknowledged that the next four years will be tough. I am inclined to believe that the President understands that the impression of the knowledgeable public, not the mass illiterate that gave him his most votes, still doubts his leadership ability to steer the country in the right direction. However, while receiving members of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) who were in the Presidential Villa to congratulate him on his reelection, the President was reported to have told them that the next four years would be tough. This, to me, is the gritty, painful truth that we all must be prepared to face. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, it is the truth and it is a warning. The storm clouds are everywhere for any discerning mind to see, that Nigeria faces challenges of immediate sort.
The anger and bitterness trailing the outcome of the presidential election in particular, should not be ignored. They are unlikely to go away anytime soon. It presents the President with a task of leadership more difficult than any he had ever faced in the last four years. It’s tempting, but perhaps wrong at this time, to suggest that it’s simply a task beyond the ability of this President. But considering how much time it took him to assemble a Cabinet that turned out to be nothing not better than a Second XI team, how sure are we this time around that the next level of Cabinet members will be a star dust? If this administration, this President, continues to see the office of the presidency as a prize that has been won, and not a duty to be done, the next four years will not only be “tough”, Nigerians may pour onto the streets, fighting themselves. The warning signs have been there since two years now. This government was just saved by the bell. And,unless there is sincerity of purpose and purposeful leadership, insecurity will take a new, more daring dimension, our country may add a new status to being already home to the highest number of world’s very poor people. At the moment, poverty has overrun the country under the watch of the Buhari Presidency. Unemployment may reach a frightening new level beyond the present 21 million Nigerians without jobs.
Don’t look very far why things may look tougher and more painful in the next four years. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in the last three years, the President’s economic results fell short of expectations, as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) only expanded at fraction of potential. At 1.93 percent GDP growth and low investment in 2018, experts say contrary to government’s policymakers’ optimism, the economy cannot achieve better and sustainable growth in 2019 and the years ahead if the GDP continues at this sluggish rate. The most government has achieved in the power sector is 4,000mw,and even at that, consumers are paying higher, between N10 and N23 per kilowatt, depending on whether you are a residential or commercial consumer. Businesses are shutting down because of cost of production. There is no assurance the exchange rate will improve, despite the huge injection of FX by the Central Bank. Repeatedly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group, have warned this government of looming debt crisis, and urged diversification. Yet little has happened in our borrowing pattern and the need to spend prudently. Neither has any tangible result seen in the diversification efforts, in spite of the increased investment in that subsector, while herdsmen/ farmers’ conflicts take the shine off agriculture. The sector expanded less than 2 percent in 2018.
Altogether, the reality and how tough the years ahead will be, will be defined and influenced by the leadership ability the President will demonstrate and commit himself to, how he uses presidential power, the choice of his next Cabinet, equal representation to different ethnic groups irrespective of how they voted for him and other conditions external to his authority. It’s not unkind to say that President Buhari has not mastered when to invoke the prestige of the presidency and when to hold it in reserve. He doesn’t know yet that the Rule of Law is sacrosanct in democracy. That’s why he spoils for a fight when it’s needless, and maintains an imperturbable calm when urgent action is required.
Finally, he may need this unsolicited advice in choosing his next cabinet. He must reverse the current sickening trend where power resides in a few individuals called a ‘cabal’. As a former American President Gerald R. Ford once noted, any administration’s success depends on the ability of the President to work harmoniously with his Cabinet. The President, Ford advised, should have no special confidants within the Cabinet, he should always listen, don’t confide, should not get involved in jurisdictional rivalries, and should handle the broad policy decisions and leave management and programme implementation to the department heads. You can see on a scale of performance, why President Buhari failed to meet public expectations in the last four years. Another opportunity now beckons.
