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By Uche Usim
The World Bank sees Nigeria maintaining growth momentum through 2027, retaining a 4.4 per cent forecast for that year while lifting its 2026 outlook, as reform efforts begin to reshape the economic landscape.
According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, Nigeria’s economy is expected to expand by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, marking what the institution described as the country’s fastest growth pace in more than a decade. The projection mirrors the outlook earlier published in the Nigeria Development Update released in October 2025.
The Bretton Woods institution also raised its 2026 growth forecast from the 3.7 per cent projected in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and the early gains from policy adjustments.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the World Bank said.
The report attributes the expected expansion to sustained momentum in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural output, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activity. Services are projected to remain the dominant driver of growth, supported by increased consumer activity and gradual improvements in business confidence, while agriculture is expected to benefit from better output levels following recent disruptions.
The Bank noted that ongoing reforms, particularly within Nigeria’s tax system, alongside disciplined monetary policy, are playing a key role in stabilising the economy and supporting growth.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” the World Bank stated.
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These measures, it added, should help to “improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”
Why this matters
The renewed emphasis on non-oil growth underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s long-running diversification efforts, aimed at reducing vulnerability to crude oil price shocks. Stronger performance in services and agriculture could translate into improved job creation, more stable food prices, and a broader revenue base for government at a time of fiscal pressure.
For investors and policymakers, the World Bank’s outlook offers cautious optimism that recent reforms may begin to deliver tangible economic gains, even as inflation risks, infrastructure gaps, and global uncertainties persist.
What you should know
Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank projected that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by reform momentum, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation across the region.
Globally, the Bank expects the world economy to remain resilient, with growth easing slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, an upward revision from its June forecast. The improved outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, even as geopolitical and climate-related risks remain elevated.
