Follow Us on Google
By Leonardo Corado
Ohio drew a line in the sand this month, and the biggest names in prediction apps stepped right over it. The state’s deadline for 10 platforms to shut down their sports contracts came and went on Friday, October 16, and as of the end of business that day most of them were still up and running as if nothing had happened. What started as a regulatory warning has turned into a full standoff between a state government and some of the fastest-growing apps in sports.
The fight lands at a moment when these platforms have never been more visible. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine made that clear when he described watching playoff baseball with their marketing on screen. “I watched baseball last night,” he said. “I’m seeing ads up there from them.” For a governor whose administration is trying to shut those same markets down, the ads were a reminder of how quickly the apps have moved from the margins into the mainstream of American sports.
How prediction apps won over young fans
The numbers back that up. In the 2026 American Sports Fan Survey from the Siena Research Institute and St. Bonaventure University’s Jandoli School of Communication, 15% of Americans said they had staked a prediction in sports using Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood or another prediction app. That figure climbed to 33% among men aged 18 to 49 and 42% among avid sports fans. Kalshi and Polymarket also let users sign up from 18, younger than the 21 age limit for gambling in most US states, and their reach now goes well beyond the box score. Before Drake’s ICEMAN dropped in May, users could trade on which words he would rap, with more than $224,000 moving through Kalshi’s “What will Drake say in Iceman?” market.
Ohio sends 10 letters at once
Ohio’s response was blunt. The Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist letters dated October 2 to 10 platforms offering sports event contracts, namely Coinbase, Gemini Titan, MooMoo Financial, Novig, Plus500US, Polymarket, ProphetX, Robinhood Derivatives, Underdog Predict and WeBull.
The letters gave each company 14 days to respond and shut those markets down, and warned of civil penalties or fines equal to the money the companies had made from sports contracts. “Plainly stated, (the prediction market company) is operating online sports gaming,” the commission wrote.
For a state that has offered and regulated sports betting since the start of 2023, the position is straightforward.
In Ohio’s view, a platform taking sports predictions is a sportsbook, and the move to send all 10 letters at once was designed to make that point to the entire industry rather than one company at a time.
The deadline passes and the Apps stay up
The industry’s answer was to keep operating. As of the end of business on the deadline day, most platforms were still up and unchanged. Polymarket and Robinhood responded with statements stressing that the federal government, not the state, oversees them, while the rest either did not respond or had no comment. Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson made clear that the state does not plan to let it rest. “They need to come into compliance, or we’re gonna force them into compliance,” he said, adding that he would be able to recoup the money the companies made from sports contracts in Ohio.
It is a familiar kind of fight, with a state on one side and well-funded companies on the other insisting the state’s rules do not apply to them. What gives Ohio’s stance its weight is the courtroom. On September 25, the US Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that federal law does not preempt Ohio’s gaming laws as applied to sports event contracts, a decision that went against Kalshi. The letters followed a week later.
Why Kalshi got no letter
Kalshi itself did not receive one, because it had already received a court order and been told in the case what the state wanted. Ohio had fined the company $5 million in April. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever summed up the industry’s frustration in one line. “Markets can’t operate when the rules change at every state line.”
Ohio is not acting alone. It is looking to join Michigan, Nevada and Washington as states restricting certain event contracts, and Tennessee was included in the Sixth Circuit decision. Hanging over all of it is a potential Supreme Court review that could ultimately decide who has the final say.
What it means for fans
For users, the immediate picture is a split screen. Sports contracts on these apps are now caught in a standoff in Ohio, with the state promising enforcement, while licensed sportsbooks are carrying on exactly as before. The age gap adds another layer. A 19-year-old can sign up for a prediction app that a licensed sportsbook in most states would turn away, even though Kalshi says its average user is 33. Knowing which kind of platform is actually available in a given state has suddenly become part of being a sports fan.
The timing could hardly be sharper. Milwaukee has just punched its first World Series ticket in 44 years, and every high-profile game brings more attention, more ads and more contracts to the very apps Ohio is trying to rein in.
No side backing down
Neither side is blinking. Ohio says the law is settled and enforcement is coming, while the platforms insist only Washington can make that call. Until a higher court settles it, fans are left caught in the middle of a fight over the apps sitting on their home screens.
