Why mobile internet alone can’t power Nigeria’s digital future

Nigeria’s telecom discourse is currently centred on one issue: compensation.

Airtime credits, refund disputes and growing consumer frustration have dominated the headlines.

Yet, beyond the noise, a far more key transformation is taking shape and for experts, it could fundamentally reshape how Nigerians connect to the internet in the years ahead.

Central to this is a growing consensus among regulators and industry stakeholders that mobile internet alone may no longer be sufficient to support Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

For more than a decade, Nigeria’s internet expansion has been driven largely by mobile networks 3G, 4G and more recently, 5G. This model has delivered scale, connecting tens of millions quickly and relatively affordably.

Today, Nigeria boasts over 120 million internet users, with more than 80 per cent accessing the web via mobile devices. Nigerian Communications Commission data and industry estimates show that over 140 million Nigerians rely primarily on mobile connectivity, reinforcing the dominance of this model.

However, this mobile-first approach is increasingly showing structural strain.

Mobile networks, by design, face limitations in capacity, latency, and consistency constraints that are becoming more visible as demand shifts toward data-heavy services such as streaming, fintech, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) last week signalled deeper concerns about the sustainability of this model.

Speaking on network quality, the Executive Vice Chairman of the Commission, Aminu Maida, acknowledged growing public dissatisfaction with service delivery but noted that improvements are underway.

According to him, the telecom sector is recovering from years of underinvestment that created congestion and service gaps. He revealed that while only about 300 sites were deployed previously, the industry is now targeting roughly 12,000 network upgrades in 2026, with thousands already completed. These upgrades include new base stations, expanded capacity, and migration from legacy systems to more efficient 4G and emerging 5G infrastructure.

Maida added that although data speeds are improving, issues such as latency and inconsistent user experience persist.

To further ease pressure on networks, the Commission has reassigned about 100 MHz of previously underutilised spectrum to operators, boosting capacity, particularly in high-density urban areas.

Compensation and tighter monitoring

On consumer protection, Maida confirmed that affected subscribers will begin receiving compensation in the form of airtime credits. He clarified that this is not a refund system but a regulatory mechanism tied to operators’ failure to meet quality-of-service benchmarks.

The NCC has also refined its monitoring framework, shifting from state-level assessments to local government-level evaluations. This, he explained, enables more precise identification of service failures and ensures compensation reflects actual user experience.

Operators have also been directed to invest beyond their existing capital expenditure plans, with compliance subject to independent verification.

Despite these interventions, structural challenges remain significant.

Nigeria recorded more than 19,000 fibre cuts within a short period, highlighting the fragility of critical infrastructure. These disruptions not only degrade service quality but also impact productivity and, in some cases, public safety.

The broader economic implications are substantial. According to the NCC, a 10 per cent increase in broadband penetration can deliver up to a 1.38 per cent rise in GDP, underscoring the strategic importance of reliable connectivity.

This aligns with the Federal Government’s digital agenda. The Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, has announced plans to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre infrastructure nationwide to strengthen broadband access and support economic growth.

While mobile internet has enabled widespread access, meaningful broadband penetration remains limited.

Fixed broadband accounts for only a small fraction of total connections, leaving Nigeria with a significant quality gap, millions may be connected, but without the speed, reliability, or latency required for productive digital participation.

Experts warned that mobile infrastructure, constrained by limited spectrum, high energy costs, and congestion in densely populated areas, cannot sustainably power advanced digital ecosystems.

As internet usage intensifies driven by video streaming, social media, and enterprise applications, network improvements are often quickly offset by rising demand.

Industry stakeholders increasingly point to fibre infrastructure as the more sustainable path forward.

Unlike mobile networks, fibre offers significantly higher capacity, lower latency, and greater efficiency, making it better suited for long-term digital growth.

Telecom experts, including Stanley Jegede of Phase3 Telecom, have consistently emphasised the need to expand fibre backbone networks to improve broadband delivery nationwide.

However, the transition comes with its own challenges. Operators continue to grapple with foreign exchange pressures on equipment imports, high energy costs, right-of-way bottlenecks, and infrastructure vandalism.

The NCC has also hinted at possible market consolidation, as smaller operators explore mergers and partnerships to survive in an increasingly capital-intensive sector.

Beyond infrastructure, the Commission is strengthening collaboration with financial institutions and security agencies to improve cybersecurity and protect telecom assets.

Analysts explained these developments reflect a broader transition in Nigeria’s telecom sector from simply expanding access to building a more resilient, high-capacity infrastructure base.

While mobile networks will remain essential for last-mile connectivity, there is growing consensus that they cannot alone support the scale, speed, and reliability required for Nigeria’s digital future.

The emerging model is clear: fibre as the backbone, mobile as the access layer.

For millions of Nigerians, this shift may ultimately prove more significant than current compensation debates, as it will determine the affordability, quality, and scalability of internet access in the years ahead.