Follow Us on Google
From Juliana Taiwo-Obalonye, Abuja
The Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, has dismissed viral social media attacks on President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies as “arithmetic illusion,” accusing critics of cobbling together disparate figures to create sensational but misleading claims of missing trillions.
In an article titled “Tinubunomics and the Arithmetic of Illusion,” Yakubu said the current economic debate in Nigeria is being distorted by “enthusiasm with huge numbers” and “casualness” in how those figures are assembled and presented to the public.
“A striking feature of Nigeria’s current economic debate is the enthusiasm with which huge numbers are circulated—and the casualness with which they are assembled,” he said. “Tax collections are added to oil receipts; oil receipts are added again under customs or ‘subsidy savings’ borrowing is treated as income; and the resulting total is presented as proof of incompetence or theft.”
Yakubu described such approaches as fundamentally flawed and not grounded in the principles of public finance. “This is not an economic analysis. It is an arithmetic illusion,” he declared.
The Budget Office chief argued that many of the viral criticisms of “Tinubunomics” stem from a basic misunderstanding of core fiscal concepts and the structure of Nigeria’s federation. “At the core of most viral critiques of Tinubunomics lies a fundamental failure to distinguish between revenue, cash, and financing, and between federation-wide collections and federal budgetary resources,” he said.
According to him, “Revenue is not the same as cash available to the Federal Government. Borrowing is not income; it is financing and creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend.”
He explains further that, once these distinctions are ignored, any type of scandalous figure can be manufactured and pushed into public discourse.
“Once these distinctions are ignored, any number—no matter how dramatic—can be manufactured,” Yakubu stated.
Yakubu outlined what he described as a “familiar pattern” in the way some commentators and influencers construct claims that the Tinubu administration has “handled” figures such as ₦150 trillion to ₦180 trillion, then ask where the money has gone.
“The familiar pattern runs as follows. Aggregate tax collections are cited, often correctly, in gross terms,” he explained.
“Oil revenues are then added without clarifying whether they are gross or net, federation-wide or federally retained, or whether costs, deductions, and under-recoveries have been netted off. Customs receipts are layered on, sometimes without stating whether they are already embedded in non-oil revenue totals. Borrowing is then added as though it were free money. Finally, ‘subsidy savings’ are thrown into the mix, as if stopping a fiscal leak produces a vault of idle cash.”
He said this approach inevitably produces attention-grabbing totals that do not reflect the actual fiscal position of the Federal Government.
“The result is a large headline number—₦150 trillion, ₦170 trillion, ₦180 trillion—followed by the question: where did the money go?” Yakubu said. “The answer is straightforward: much of it never existed in the form being implied.”
On one of the most politically sensitive issues, petrol subsidy removal, Yakubu insisted that it is wrong to portray subsidy reforms as having generated vast pools of cash that the government can simply spend at will. “Subsidy reform, for instance, does not conjure discretionary cash. It closes a hole,” he said.
“Under the old regime, underpricing manifested through arrears, opaque netting, and quasi-fiscal obligations. Reform first eliminates these hidden drains. The fiscal benefit appears gradually—through reduced deficit pressure, better budgeting discipline, and explicit, targeted support—not through a sudden pile of spendable ‘savings’.”
Yakubu also faulted how some critics present Nigeria’s rising debt stock, especially in naira terms, as fresh borrowing by the current administration.
“Debt figures are similarly abused,” he said. “A significant portion of Nigeria’s recent increase in debt stock in naira terms reflects exchange-rate revaluation of existing external obligations, not fresh borrowing.”
He stressed that when the currency is adjusted, the naira value of existing dollar-denominated debt rises automatically, and treating this revaluation as new debt is misleading.
“When the exchange rate adjusts, the naira value of dollar-denominated debt rises automatically. Treating this accounting effect as new borrowing is a category error, not a discovery,” he argued.
The Budget Office DG further decried the tendency to conflate federation-wide revenues with resources actually available to the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN).
“Most persistently, federation-wide collections are presented as if they belong solely to the Federal Government. They do not,” he said.
“Revenues in a federation are shared, earmarked, netted, and statutorily allocated. Federal budget reality is determined by FGN retained revenue plus deficit financing, not by gross federation inflows aggregated for political effect.”
Yakubu maintained that such conflation turns legitimate fiscal debate into “theatre” rather than serious accountability.
Defending the administration’s policy thrust, Yakubu said what has been branded “Tinubunomics” was never sold as a magic wand that would deliver instant prosperity, but as a difficult reset being undertaken under severe constraints.
“Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance,” he maintained. “It is a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within hard constraints: inherited debt service, FX realism, security spending, legacy arrears, and competing constitutional obligations.”
According to him, the logic of the current economic strategy is “structural” and focused on rebuilding fundamentals rather than chasing short-term applause.
“Its logic is structural—restoring price signals, strengthening revenue administration, rebuilding credibility, and re-pricing the public balance sheet while protecting the most vulnerable,” Yakubu said.
Yakubu criticised what he called a “household ledger” mentality in analysing national finance and warned that constant outrage driven by social media narratives does not equate to genuine accountability.
“Those who insist on treating national finance as a household ledger will always find scandals where none exists. But accountability does not begin with social media addiction. It starts with audit logic.”
He then set out what he described as the “proper” way to interrogate the performance of the Federal Government on the fiscal front.
“The proper way to interrogate government performance is simple: examine federal retained revenue; separate it clearly from financing; track expenditure across debt service, personnel, capital, and transfers; and then assess outputs—roads built, power delivered, rail extended, schools and clinics rehabilitated,” he advised.
“Anything else is not subject to scrutiny. It is a theatre. And no amount of theatrical arithmetic can substitute for fiscal discipline.”
