After months of consultations, former governor of Kaduna State and a major supporter of the Tinubu Presidency, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, has finally dumped the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Despite the ‘no vacancy in Aso Rock’ rhetoric, which is eminently and strongly promoted by the APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje and others, El-Rufai has also vowed to mobilize the opposition leaders to join the SDP and defeat the APC in the 2027 general election. Is this real or an empty threat? Only time will tell.
El-Rufai’s defection did not come as a surprise to many keen observers of the political situation in the country. His being denied ministerial position is cited by many people as one of his reasons for ditching the APC, a platform he used to become two-time governor of Kaduna State. It was a party in which he wielded so much power that he ruled his state with iron hands. He dealt with the opposition in the state and experimented with the same-faith ticket before it was exported to the centre in the 2023 presidential poll. However, it must be noted that the SDP was the first political party to deploy the same-faith ticket in the 1993 presidential poll adjudged to have been won by Chief MKO Abiola. Unfortunately, that election was annulled.
Apart from not being appointed a minister, El-Rufai no longer had influence in the Tinubu administration as was the case when erstwhile President Muhammadu Buhari was in the saddle. Like many Northerners, El-Rufai has the feeling that Tinubu is not fair to them in terms of appointments, which favour the president’s region. Here, Tinubu is probably copying Buhari’s example in matters of appointments. But that does not make it right in a federation.
Federal appointments must reflect our diversity. That is the ideology behind the setting up of the Federal Character Commission (FCC). It is equally the spirit behind Section 14 (3) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), which states unambiguously that “the composition of the Government of the Federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there should be no predominance of persons from a few States or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in that Government or any of its agencies.”
Both Buhari and Tinubu intentionally breached this section of the Constitution. The only advantage Tinubu has over Buhari is that he can still correct the error as he is still in power. It will be commendable if Tinubu can remember other parts of the country in his new appointments. Giving every appointment to his kinsmen is not helping his presidency. It is not good for his reelection bid. He must resist the creeping nepotism in his presidency.
El-Rufai is of the opinion that the APC has lost focus and democratic principles. The former Kaduna State governor was quoted as saying: “I have diligently served the APC and made my contributions to its viability as a political platform. However, developments in the last two years have confirmed a troubling disregard for democratic principles and progressive values that I hold dear.”
He also said: “At this point in my political journey, I must seek another political platform for the pursuit of progressive values I cherish.” On what he will do in his new party, El-Rufai said: “As a member of the SDP, I am committed to fostering a united democratic platform to challenge the APC in upcoming elections.”
El-Rufai’s dumping of his former party attracted some media mention in spite of the salacious Natasha/Akpabio saga in the Senate, which has refused to abate since it broke out. Although both are national political stories, it appears Nigerians are giving undue attention to the Natasha story more than any other one. Nevertheless, that did not diminish the import and significance of El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP.
Defection is normal in Nigerian politics. Almost every major politician that matters in the country has at one time or the other cause to change party, a multi-purpose vehicle for winning elections. This can explain why defection is even celebrated even in the Senate and other places.
While Nigerians are watching the El-Rufai’s new move and what it portends for 2027 for the APC, SDP and other parties, especially PDP, LP and NNPP, the APC is busy being dismissive. It even accused El-Rufai of inordinate ambition which is bound to fail. The APC position should be expected. It is not unusual. Regardless of the outcome of El-Rufai’s new epiphany and adventure, the APC will never be the same again. The party has lost a strong ally, whether the members will admit it or not. Before El-Rufai’s defection, some notable Northerners have dumped the ruling party citing some reasons, including maltreatment of the region.
What is happening to the APC now is not markedly different from what happened to the PDP before the 2015 general poll. In Nigeria, history is always bound to repeat itself. Do we learn useful lessons from history? Put differently, do our politicians learn useful lessons from history? While some commentators believe that the El-Rufai move will scatter things for APC, others do not think so. Those in the latter group think that El-Rufai has lost relevance in Kaduna politics hence his move to the SDP. They also say that the opposition cannot withstand the formidable APC when the time comes. Moreover, El-Rufai is a controversial politician. This makes it difficult to know where he actually stands. He is shrewd and intelligent. He also has the capacity to intellectualize and even politicize issues. Some other people believe that El-Rufai is difficult to control. He has a high sense of the dramatic and can exploit it at any point in time. They think that El-Rufai can be contradictory at times.
All these notwithstanding, his supporters believe that he still has political relevance in Kaduna State and the entire North. They cite his closeness to Buhari and argue that the political unity between the two can sway supporters to his cause. As we approach the 2027 election season, El-Rufai is one politician who should not be dismissed or waved aside. He has the capacity to challenge the ruling APC. His dumping the party wasn’t a day’s decision. He must have put everything into due consideration and consulted widely with friends and allies before dumping the ruling party. If more big wigs dump the APC in the coming months as being anticipated, implosion in the party cannot be ruled out. And if there is implosion in APC, the centre cannot hold. However, only time will tell, how far, the El-Rufai challenge will go.