Preventing the North East from becoming Nigeria’s Vietnam

For many years, through my public interventions in the media including on this page every week, I have cautioned against the resort to the so-called “non kinetic” containment strategy by the leadership of Nigeria’s security and intelligence community in the war against terror. I have always maintained that the non-kinetic containment strategy, which is essentially an appeasement of terrorist, bandits and criminals, has achieved nothing other than the emboldening of domestic and foreign enemies that are waging an existential war on the Nigerian state. Rather than abate, Nigeria’s insecurity is not only heightening but has taken a dangerous multi-dimensional and amorphous nature that is threatening the continuous existence of Nigeria. Unfortunately, the managers of the Nigerian state and its national security appear clueless, at worse, or confused, at best, about the way out of thissecurity cul-de-sac.

From negotiations with bandits who abduct Nigerians for ransom to the rehabilitation and reintegration of surrendered Boko Haram terrorists through the Operation Safe Corridor initiative, as well as a clear lack of political will to deal decisively with Nigeria’s heightening insecurity, the managers of the Nigerian state have inevitably set the state up for failure under the pressure of unrelenting terror and banditry. This was why, after many years of trying to dissuade the leadership of the security and intelligence community in Nigeria to jettison this strange idea of non-kinetic containment absurdity, the reference to terrorists as “prodigal sons” who should be given a second chance by the Chief of Defence staff, General Olufemi Oluyede, was rebuffed with heavy criticism from a broad section of Nigerians. To many Nigerians, it was an assault on our collective sensibilities to attempt to make light of our heavy burden of insecurity by describing our tormentors as prodigal sons.

And unlike our tormentors, the biblical prodigal son was neither a bandit nor a terrorist; he did not abduct or kill people. He only mismanaged his portion of inheritance in disobedience of his father’s wise counsel otherwise. And after realizing his mistake, he came home peacefully to ask for forgiveness from his father. But whenever, our ‘prodigal sons’ come back home, they leave a trail of sorrow, tears and blood. And this time, when they came home, it was General Oluyede’s commanders, officers and men that were their victims.

In addition to the many military casualties over the years since the launch of the war on terror more than a decade ago, the recent fall of commanders of the rank of Brigadier General, along with several battalion commanders, should permanently shut the door on the on-going non-kinetic approach by the military high command and open widely the door on decisive kinetic containment strategy by deploying the full might of the Nigerian state against domestic and foreign ‘prodigal sons’. Any time service personnel fall on the battle field defending us against enemies of the state, a part of Nigeria and a piece of every Nigerian dies also.

While it may seem that the military have succeeded in containing the insurgency to the northeast corner of the country, the war is nevertheless still raging with heavy civilian and military casualties. And many worry that what appears to be a successful containment of the insurgency to the north-east might in reality be a confinement strategy by the Boko Haram insurgents to draw Nigeria’s security forces into an intractable war, from where it will drain and exhaust the armed forces of Nigeria from one theatre of war and thereafter take over the country by a simple call to prayer. The unending war on terror and the continuous loss of both civilian and military lives calls to question the current combat strategy of the armed forces and a need to review it urgently. For, indeed, if this current trend of continuous loss of military lives continues unchecked, in a little over two years from now, the Boko Haram group may achieve its long-term objective of defeating the Nigerian state. Therefore, this is a patriotic call to action to avert Nigeria’s road to Sudan.

The armed forces of Nigeria, like counterparts all over the world, are not oriented for the asymmetrical and unconventional warfare that is being waged by Boko Haram. And this explains the limited success achieved so far in the theatre of war. To change the tide in the war against terror and bring to a decisive end to the decades-long conflict, the armed forces must change the war from asymmetrical and unconventional to symmetrical and conventional warfare as a final solution to this challenge. Now is the time to get serious and get to work with the urgency the times require. Going forward, the communication from the military high command must inspire confidence in the Nigerian people, instil patriotism in service personnel in a manner and tone that should scare the enemy.  And to achieve this final solution, Operation Hadin Kai should be renamed ‘Operation Wetie’, as the new module of operation should shift from ground operations to sustained periods of aerial bombardment [wetting] of the entire combat area [Borno/Yobe axis] and to be followed with armoured and artillery clearance operations.

To avert civilian casualties, a safe corridor deep into Nigeria should be opened for mass evacuation of non-Boko Haram elements in the combat area, after which a comprehensive wetting of the area is sustained until insurgents are defeated once and for all. The leadership of the Nigerian state and the armed forces must adopt this option as the final solution before drone-flying insurgents acquire sufficient airpower capabilities enough to open another vista of the terror war on the Nigerian state. The only repentant terrorist is a dead one.

The current spate of loss of military lives may be a strategy of the Boko Haram insurgents to make the North East theatre of war on terror Nigeria’s Vietnam, where they hope to exhaust the security forces of the Nigerian state before the entire country is left unprotected, hence, falling under their control. Therefore, the authorities of the Nigerian state must not mistake the confinement of Boko Haram insurgency to the North East as a successful containment strategy. With bandits and other terror groups running riot across the country, the Boko Haram strategy of confinement to the North East serves its purpose of making the region the Vietnam of Nigeria.