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…4 major contenders rounding off campaigns, hopeful of winning poll
• Their chances, weaknesses
From Romanus Ugwu, Ndubuisi Orji, Okwe Obi, and Adanna Nnamani, Abuja
When the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) last year blew the whistle for the political parties to begin their presidential and National Assembly campaigns on September 28 and governorship and states assembly on October 12, Nigerians waited in bated breath to see what the parties would offer them.
It was the first time in Nigeria’s political history that the parties would have such a long period of time of campaign to market themselves to the electorate. Thus most of the parties not wanting to burn out easily resorted to playing to the gallery with most of them quarreling over the constitution of their campaign councils.
But this year, most of them got over their teething problems while others managed theirs to hit the roads for their campaigns.
Today, the die is cast as the presidential and National Assembly elections hold on Saturday February 25, while the governorship and state assembly polls hold on March 11.
In this report, we will bring to you how the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) have prepared for the elections, their chances and weaknesses:
APC
For the All Progressives Congress (APC), less than one week to the presidential election, the party and its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, seem to have weathered all the odds and now ready for the much-awaited poll.
In every consideration, the ruling party and its candidate, towered, head and shoulder, above other counterparts in taking the messages on their Renewed Hope manifesto to almost every state capital, the grassroots, and many homes.
They did so with near perfection through campaign rallies, town hall consultative meetings, networking with relevant stakeholders, and more importantly advertorials like jingles, flyers, and billboards with potpourri of messages.
In reality, determined as ever, the ruling party and its campaign train actually traversed the length and breadth of the country wooing, lobbying, and convincing the Nigerian electorate on how safe the country would be if they continue to entrust it to their caring hands.
From Enugu to Sokoto, Kaduna to Edo, Lagos to Borno, Bayelsa to Benue, Anambra to Kebbi, and almost all other locations, it is not debatable whether there is any state capital in Nigeria which the APC campaign train has not visited once or even twice.
And even when financial constraints disrupted the campaign programmes of the other political parties, the APC and its candidate waxed stronger, giving different campaign promises from one state to another.
In fact, the campaign of the party was so successful that many APC chieftains do not have any doubt of the ruling party emerging victorious on Saturday. Former National Secretary of the party, Waziri Bulama said: “APC is not just going to win the 2023 presidential and other elections, but will also win it by a landslide.”
However, beyond the razzmatazz of the campaign, the commendable efforts of the party and its presidential candidate to woo the electorate seem to have in many ways moved against the tide with one obstacle or the other that happened in quick successions confronting them.
The perception in many quarters is that the more they try to persuade Nigerians to leave the country into their continued cares by voting for them to retain power at the centre, the more mountainous obstacles continued to erupt against them.
It is either they are managing the controversial allegations of sabotage from the presidency cabal or facing the speculated lack of support by President Muhammadu Buhari and by extension some members of the APC Progressive Governors Forum.
They have equally battled the legal and social conundrum of the deliberate anti-masses APC-led government economic policies like currency scarcity, the lingering petroleum products crisis, and the recurring gaffes from its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Tinubu.
Again, what has become another source of concern to many political pundits is the unnecessary cold war among the party chieftains which has contributed in polarising stakeholders and worsening the situation for both the party and its candidate.
In fact, the challenges were so disturbing that many expressed worries that they are not only happening too close to the presidential election this week, but have equally defied solutions because as they try to paper one widening crack, other shocking fresh incidents would happen to eclipse and worsen the previous cracks.
Curiously, the frequency of the occurrence did not give much room for the ruling party to strategize and perfect for victory, because they invested so much energy and logistics in managing the crises and correcting the unending gaffes by the party’s presidential candidate.
As if they were not enough worrisome situations to affect the party’s fortune, former chief scribe of the party, Waziri Bulama, while enumerating the precipitous obstacles against the APC for the presidential poll in a chat Sunday Sun, admissibly named the deployment of technology by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as an albatross.
According to him; “the major challenge APC will face in this election will be the complete automation of the voting system with the use of PVCs and the BVAS.
“If the technologies are strongly and strictly implemented, it will be a serious challenge to APC. It will not only be the decider of the outcome of the election, but will also change the pattern of elections in this country. In fact, BVAS will be the real game changer.
“However, apart from engaging Nigerians very vigorously and persuading them to come out and vote for the APC, our fallback would be our growth in confidence and the continuous improvement President Buhari has made in the electoral institutions.”
Equally appraising the chances of the party, Secretary General of a political pressure group, Zikist-Aminu Kano Patriots (ZAP), Steve Igweze, told Sunday Sun that though Bola Tinubu’s emergence conformed to the pro-zoning convention, he did not, however, help matters with his incessant gaffes and uncoordinated speeches.
“On our chances or expectations of Asiwaju Tinubu, we of ZAP, are not used to any rating, rather we are pro-zoning convention. We rate zoning convention as a veritable instrument of equity, fairness, and natural justice which has since the inception of the Fourth Republic acted as the glue binding our fragile country.
“In this contest, we support Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi, out of the four presidential front runners, for we are worried in the true spirit of zoning convention; that it won’t be the best in our circumstance for a northerner to succeed President Buhari.
“In our assessment of Tinubu, we rated him very high more than Obi, immediately after he won the APC’s presidential primary election. But to be sincere, Asiwaju’s incessant gaffes and uncoordinated speeches, more or less, have doused our enthusiasm. And when we asked our members, debt-ridden especially from the North, they expressed the same misgivings and doubts about his health and overall fitness to run a debt-ridden and insecurity-engulfed country.
“Added to his challenges is what one can call unforced error of attacking serially President Buhari, especially his latest Naira redesign monetary policy. The unforced error has added salt to injury, as kids we were admonished not to attack the tiger whether alive or dead, especially the tiger in power. I am still confounded about how Asiwaju appropriated the monetary policy as targeted only at him. It was a huge goof that did not go down well with many, mostly when we remember the bullion van saga,” Igweze argued.
However, pouring cold water on the apprehensions and doubts, Temitope Ajayi, member, Directorate of Strategic Communication of the APC PCC, while defending his principal, told Sunday Sun in a chat that victory is sure for Tinubu.
“Asiwaju will win the election handsomely. Among the front runners, he has worked hard the most. He has presented most clear, achievable and realistic governing vision. He has met and interacted more with the various sections of the society more than any candidate.
“While others disappeared from the campaign train for days he was moving from state to state back to back and even did two states per day to cover more grounds. In terms of ground work, APC is doing more with campaign mobilisers in every ward and unit across the country.
“In Lagos alone, APC has over 50,000 vote canvassers moving from house to house and door to door. We have 21 governors mobilising in their states and hosting campaign activities across each local government. So, Asiwaju and APC have put in the work to win the election,” he boasted.
The APC PCC member equally dismissed the claims that the Federal Government policies are targeted at Tinubu.
“There is no basis and truth in the conjecture that cash policy was targeted at Asiwaju. I don’t think government makes policies to target a particular citizen. There is no sense in such beer parlour gist. We should not dignify such nonsense,” Ajayi argued.
On the challenges, he said: “I don’t know of any particular challenge facing him. He is working hard to win the election and working more than his opponents. Maybe working more than his opponents is challenging.”
PDP
Also, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) says it is the party to beat in the polls, especially in the February 25 presidential contest.
The main opposition party, which lost power in the 2015 general elections, has not hidden its desire to take over the control of governance of the country, through the February 25 presidential poll.
The PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, told Sunday Sun, that the opposition party, which has campaigned round the country is set for the election.
He stated that there are evidence that the party’s message resonated well with the electorate in the various parts of the country, expressing optimism that Nigerians would pitch their tents with the PDP.
The PDP spokesman explained that the party’s presidential candidate in the course of his nationwide campaigns had engaged Nigerians on issues that are germane to the country, including restructuring of the polity, how to tackle the security challenges and the myriad of problems confronting the country.
According to him, “we are very prepared as a party. We have campaigned vigorously round the country. We have stayed on issues. Our candidate has engaged Nigerians passionately; identifying the issues that are relevant to our country. He has campaigned and had conversations, discussions and engaged every section of this country. And raising issues that are germane to the progress of this country. And that is clearly encapsulated in the five points agenda of our presidential candidate, which are all in tandem with the manifesto of the PDP.
“We have discussed the key issue of restructuring. We have discussed the security of the country. We have discussed the issue of the empowerment of the various sectors, especially youth and women. We have stayed on issues as a party. And these are issues that are relevant to the Nigerian state and the Nigerian people”.
Ologunagba added that Atiku has “demonstrated capacity. He has shown that he is experienced. He is experienced as former vice president and, of course, chairman of the National Economic Council.
He has made concrete plans to proffer solution to the myriad of problems of the country. We are satisfied with what we have done. We are confident that the team we have will win; particularly since the Nigerian people are looking for hope. And they have found out that the capacity, energy, mental alertness in our candidate. And he has remained presidential above the sail.
“Even when people go low, he (Atiku) has always risen high. That is why we are confident that our candidate will win . And we know Nigerian people have already got the message. They are connected to us. We are confident. We are connected with the Nigerian people. We care about Nigerian people
“Nigerian people have gone through a lot in the last seven and half years. And they can compare between 2015 and what we have now.”
Opposition party’s optimism notwithstanding, there are concerns among party stalwarts that the crisis between Atiku and the five aggrieved PDP governors, popularly known as G-5 Governors, may work against the opposition party in the affected states.
The G-5 Governors, including Governors Nyesom Wike; Samuel Ortom; Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi; Okezie Ikpeazu and Seyi Makinde of Rivers, Benue, Enugu, Abia and Oyo states respectively have been at loggerheads with the PDP and Atiku since the nomination of Delta State governor, Ifeanyi Okowa as the opposition party’s vice presidential candidate.
The governors, who have boycotted all party functions since the crisis started, are insisting on the replacement of Iyorchia Ayu as PDP national chairman by a Southerner, to create a North/South balance in the party, as condition for supporting Atiku in the presidential poll.
While many efforts to resolve the PDP crisis have not yielded the desired results, the G-5 Governors are allegedly torn between the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, and his All Progressives Congress ( APC) counterpart, Bola Tinubu on who they will support.
Nevertheless, a member of the PDP National Executive Committee (NEC) say there is no cause for alarm, noting that the party’s victory in the February 25 poll is certain.
The NEC member, who pleaded anonymity because of his relationship with one of the G-5 Governors, told Sunday Sun, that some of the aggrieved governors have soft-pedaled in their opposition to Atiku.
According to him, some of the aggrieved governors are already shifting ground. The NEC member explained that the shift by some of the G-5 Governors is responsible for the support allegedly given to the PDP presidential campaign in Oyo, Benue, Abia and Enugu, during the party’s presidential campaigns in those states.
“Apart from Governor Wike, all the other governors are standing for election. So, they know that will not be easy to ask the people to vote for the PDP for the National Assembly seats and vote another party for the presidential election. Eventually, they have no choice than to work for Atiku in the presidential poll,” the NEC member stated.
Sunday Sun gathered that the PDP is also exploiting the seeming crack in the APC, ahead of the presidential poll, to push its case vigorously, especially in the northern parts of the country.
NNPP
For the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), its presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, is not leaving any stone unturned ahead of the February 25 poll.
Kwankwaso, who served as Kano State governor, is not coming to test the waters as this is not his first presidential outing.
It would be recalled that the former Minister of Defence unsuccessfully contested against President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 on the platform of the APC. He, also contested against Atiku Abubakar in 2019 on the PDP platform, but lost.
But this time, the former lawmaker seems ready to clinch the plum job with the unveiling of Bishop Isaac Idahosa, a Senior Pastor of the God First Ministry Lekki Light Centre, as his running mate.
When he unveiled his manifestos in Abuja, he promised to prioritise education, health, security, employment, education and welfare of workers, if elected.
“My pledges to you are anchored around my deep commitment to making our country work for all of us and in the overall interest of all Nigerians.
“This is a product of my over three decades of hands-on experience in governance and leadership at the executive, the legislative, as well as the diplomatic levels, as well as my over 17 years of experience in the civil service,” he stated.
Speaking on the preparedness of Kwankwaso, Spokesman of the NNPP Presidential Campaign Council, Major Agbo said: “We are set. All the things that is needed to be done have been done.
“As I talk to you now, we just returned from the Southeast. Our presidential candidate has visited 600 local governments so far out of 774.
“We did all these by road. His footprint is out there for public consumption for the things an NNPP government will do. So, we are set and we are sure that we will win this election.”
Contrary to clamour for endorsements by traditional rulers, clerics, ethnic and pressure groups, the National Publicity Secretary clarified that the former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives was not keen on endorsements which he said has not aided most politicians in winning elections.
“Do we need their endorsements? We have spoken to those who think well. We are just returning from Ebonyi, Enugu and Abia states.
“Has Obi received the endorsements from the North? You do not need endorsements.
“All you need to appeal to the electorate across all sections especially those who think well and who are convinced that have the capacity to do well.
“Who has endorsement helped in this country? Those who have been endorsed, have they been able to change anything? We are not after endorsements.
“We are not even interested. We will continue to talk to the electorate and we hope that they will vote for our candidate, who until today remains the best among the all the candidates.
“What makes a politician good is his or her antecedents in the past,” he said.
Before then, he had warned certain groups in the North, perceivedyo be the most populated region, to desist from using the name Arewa to endorse “unpopular candidates.”
Kwankwaso, who spoke through a member of the NNPP -PCC, Abudulmumin Jubrin, said: “We have credible information in our possession that shows that some people have been compromised and these people have concluded plans to turn the event into an endorsement platform for a particular candidate.
“We are, therefore, advising you not to do anything that will ridicule the legacies of Sir Ahmadu Bello and other famous Northern leaders like Sir Tafawa Balewa, Malam Aminu Kano, Sir Kashim Ibrahim, and JS Tarka etc, by attempting to endorse an unpopular candidate at the expense of a more competent, more experienced and more credible one.
“We believe that it is very wrong for any group to clandestinely plan to endorse any candidate in the name of the North, especially when we have more than one candidate from our region.
“And our candidate enjoys more acceptability amongst the Northern masses and across the country than any other candidate.
“It is common knowledge that Nigerians especially Northerners will come out in mass to vote for him because of the trust they reposed in him, because of his track record, his competence, his empathy, educational qualification and his wealth of experience.”
Indeed, regardless of the plethora of endorsements and preparedness, certain factors will work in his favour.
The engineer would be banking on his experience as a civil servant, member of the House of Representatives, lawmaker, minister, two-term executive governor of Kano. In the Northern region, particularly as he is seen as a political god who has been leading the red cap movement known as Kwakwasiyya.
Also, his developmental strides like the roads he built, scholarships he gave to indigenes of Kano State when he was governor, to study abroad, will count for him.
Political pundits see him as a grassroots mobiliser especially in the North just as he has the war chest to prosecute the election.
However, his platform (NNPP), which he is contesting on is relatively unknown in most parts of the country except in the North.
Also, even his home state, Kano, is controlled by the ruling APC just as his battle with Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, will work against him. Ganduje is a political acolyte of Tinubu, who will fight tooth and nail to maintain his footprints by winning Kano for his party.
In addition, Ibrahim Shekarau, a former governor of Kano State, who would have worked for him, dumped NNPP for the PDP because he (Shekarau), had alleged that most of the people he brought to NNPP were not given slots during the party primary. Up till this moment, NNPP had accused INEC of refusing to replace the names of some candidates who dumped the party.
Also, the votes from the North will sharply be divided among PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, Kwankwaso and Tinubu’s running mate, former governor of Borno State, Kassim Shettima.
In addition, experts believe that his running mate, Pastor Idahosa, is a political neophyte who lacks the financial wherewithal and structures to influence enough votes from the Southern region to bolster their chances.
LP
Since campaigns began in September last year, Labour Pary (LP) has remained resilient, proving itself insurmountable despite its deficiencies and initial doubts from several quarters.
With its message of turning the country’s economy around, the party’s campaign team has effectively travelled through all the six geopolitical zones of the country.
The party has also held numerous successful consultations and town hall meetings which have resulted in endorsements from a wide range of business, political, cultural and religious organizations, as well as individuals.
For instance, former President Olusegun Obasanjo; prominent elder statesman and leader of the South-south region, Edwin Clarke; Afenifere leader, Chief Ayo Adebanjo; and most recently, the Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom, have endorsed Obi.
Also, the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF), among several others, have given the LP presidential candidate their blessings.
The LP, unlike the other two leading candidates, may not have enough powerful individuals behind it, but Obi’s charisma and the promise of a new Nigeria seem to have struck a chord with the populace, particularly the younger generation.
His message of hope has been constant and unshakable, and the LP candidate and his running mate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed have maintained a campaign based on issues without resorting to name-calling and personal attacks.
The LP’s selection of candidates, as well as Obi’s character, integrity, and love for the common people, are among the party’s selling points.
The youths, who account for a sizable portion of the voting population and are largely responsible for Obi’s online popularity, have continued to back him in large numbers.
The LP campaigns were extremely successful, as evidenced by the size of the crowd the party was able to gather at most of its rallies, especially in the northern region, which was thought to be the party’s weak point.
More so, several polls conducted by the various independent bodies, including the most recent by Anap Foundation which was conducted by NOI Polls Limited (NOIPolls) has also shown the LP standard bearer, Mr Obi, as most preferred candidate for Saturday election.
Yet, other observers, including opponents, have asserted that actual votes are not determined by online surveys, but on grassroots support.
Notwithstanding the increasing praise, it is important to remember that LP had a bumpy road to “stardom.” The party’s ongoing leadership disputes have been an issue. Although certain states are still experiencing internal crises, the party has been able to somewhat reduce the bickering, particularly at the national level.
The LP has also been the target of several assaults on its members and supporters, some of them have resulted to deaths and permanent disabilities.
Moreover, the fact that over three million students might not be able to cast their ballots in the election because they were unable to obtain their permanent voter’s cards before the INEC deadline will be a major setback for the LP, given that the majority of its followers are young people.
Similarly, the majority of the INEC’s ad hoc election personnel, which numbers close to a million if not more, are young individuals. They are not also permitted to cast ballots. This might also work against the LP.
The party has nevertheless maintained optimism about its chances of winning despite all odds.
The Chief Spokesperson for the LP presidential Campaign Council (LPPCC), Yunusa Tanko told Sunday Sun that: “Our chances in the election are as bright as the morning star. We are the first political party to complete their campaigns and so we have laxity of time now to continue to double down on what we have done and areas that we were not able to cover and the areas that we didn’t get the kind of response that we expected and you can see our presidential candidate actually doing market storm now, going to major markets in the country to associate with the people.
“So, we are expecting a large turnout of voters especially the Nigerian youths who have been the fulcrum of our support, who have been leading this particular movement and we believe that the 12.5 million youths registered will vote for Peter Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed. So, we are very hopeful that the election will go in our favour, with the hope that the Electoral Act will be implemented to the letter and that people will be allowed to perform their civic duty to ensure that they vote for the right candidate of their choice. So, we are very hopeful.
“Those particular areas are some areas where we had a shut down. For example, where we were denied the opportunity of using choice areas of campaign, in Kogi and Edo even though the campaign turned out to be carnival-like. We had issue in Lafia, then some areas in Lagos, where our people were attacked and some northern parts where we had some issues Like Jigawa and Yobe states. We are trying to double down on all of those particular areas.
“Right now as you are talking to me, I am about to go on air by 9:30 to speak to the people again on Radio Hausa, in order to galvanize them. This is what we have been continuously doing. About 1,000 people in Southern Borno have decamped from APC and PDP, to join the party. And everybody has been asked to go back to their own units and mobilize and canvass. We are sharing materials, Tshirts and caps to everybody, giving them phone numbers of people they can reach to so that they can mobilize towards the election. So that is how elections are being won you have to convince the people to vote for you and we are doing that.”
To protect it’s votes and guard against the possibility of being cheated out of it’s deserved position, the LP chieftain said: “What we are doing in that regard is to make sure that all of our agents are uploaded and where we do not have agents, we are having independent agents to monitor some of the areas and then mobilizing some of our members at the polling units to make sure we have nothing less than 200 people at every polling unit. That way, it will checkmate any form of rigging because it’s the people that will be in control of the polling unit and every officer too is expected to be at his own polling unit to monitor and make sure that he does not allow any form of rigging within his own domain. There are also individual people who have also been positioned to deploy technologies like drones to monitor areas where possible election rigging will take place so that we will have them as evidence in case we have to go to court.”
