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Key members of OPEC+ are expected to maintain their gradual approach to increasing oil production quotas in the coming months, as the alliance moves toward fully reversing a previously suspended tranche of output cuts by September, at least in principle.
According to a Bloomberg report on Thursday, the group has already reinstated roughly two-thirds of the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreed in 2023, with plans to roll out further quota increases in three additional monthly phases.
However, the impact of these planned increases remains limited in practice, as escalating tensions linked to Iran continue to disrupt key Middle Eastern supply routes, including flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite these geopolitical headwinds, the Saudi Arabia- and Russia-led alliance has continued with cautious and largely symbolic quota adjustments, even as global oil markets remain tight and prices elevated.
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Bloomberg cited delegates familiar with the discussions as saying OPEC+ is committed to proceeding with its phased restoration strategy, although actual production gains are being constrained by operational bottlenecks and regional instability.
The plan envisages a full reversal of the remaining production cuts by September, with three further monthly quota hikes expected before then. Yet much of the recent output adjustment remains largely theoretical, as several member countries struggle to meet revised targets due to infrastructure limitations and supply disruptions.
The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 7, where production levels for July will be reviewed.
Before the latest Middle East escalation, eight core OPEC+ members had already begun a cautious process of restoring supply previously withdrawn to stabilize the global oil market amid a glut.
