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By Ibrahim Abdukarim
Nigeria has often been described as a paradox because of the sharp contrast between its massive natural wealth versus multidimensional poverty, especially its vast oil and gas reserves, and the widespread poverty, infrastructure decay and economic hardship in the country. This is why every election season, how to resolve this paradox dominates the debate among those seeking for the office of the President, the highest political office in the country.
After a groundbreaking outing as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, will be on the ballot for the second consecutive time in the forthcoming presidential election, scheduled to hold on January 16, 2027. However, unlike in 2023 when Obi ran with a running mate who had little or no political influence in Northern Nigerian, in the person of Datti Baba Ahmed, he is contesting in 2027 with former Kano State Governor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso under the platform of Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). Kwankwaso is the leader of Kwankwasiyya Movement, an offshoot of legendary Aminu Kano talakwa politics in the northern region.
It is therefore my contention that with the organic followership of Obedient Movement and the Kwankwasiya Movement, plus the well-honed Consumption to Production Plan, it will amount to wishful thinking to underrate the OK Movement ensemble. The movement is currently the most formidable force today in the politics of Kano State, the state with the second largest number of registered voters, after Lagos State, which Obi won in 2023.
So, unlike in 2023, when Obi could not make serious incursion into northern Nigeria, he has a strong footing in the far North today, running under the NDC platform with Kwankwaso as his running mate and president in waiting come 2013, when it is the turn of the north. Similarly, unlike in 2023 when Obi’s party then, LP, could not make serious incursion into the North, NDC has also strong candidates for Governorship, National Assembly and State Assembly elections in the 19 states of Northern Nigeria today.
Notable among the Governorship Candidates are Senators Aisha Binani of Adamawa and Kabiru Marafa of Zamfara States.If Obi came third in 2023 with six million votes when he had no councilors, one could imagine what would happen in 2027 when his party has more gubernatorial and legislative candidates than LP.
Besides political alignment, Obi still resonates mostly with youths, who regard him as their alter ego and his production plan as the Nigeria they are yearning for. They are convinced that Tinubu and Atiku are the same ten and ten pence. Thus, because of his strong youth appeal, based on his frugal and transparent antecedents, he stands a better chance of benefitting from the voters resentment of the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu, widely admitted by commentators and confirmed by national surveys, such as the Yiaga recent Africa poll, in which majority of surveyed voters expressed disapproval of the government’s current economic performance.
Based on the country’s demographic distribution, the youth population constitute 70-75 percent of the country’s 103 million registered voters. By youth population, I mean those under the age of 40. The youths see Obi as their alter ego not only because he is 65 years old, but because the neoliberal economic policy succeeds only under an accountable and transparent government.
On the contrary, they find it hard to differentiate between Tinubu and Atiku. While Atiku had bad accountability records as the Vice President, the Niger Delta have been thrown into confusion over the discordant voices on the construction of the outrageously priced Coastal Highway.
In addition to youth appeal, an Obi government is widely seen as an opportunity for a break from conventional politics to an era of structural reforms that will bring transparency, accountability and fiscal discipline into the management of the country’s economy. Obi has a reputation for frugal administration from his time as the Governor of Anambra State. There is no doubt that he will be religious in budget implementation.
It is widely believed that his government will raise the hope of Nigerians for strict budget discipline and reduced government overhead. Owing to his business background, public track record, perceived personal incorruptibility and commitment to transparency over political patronage, he stands on a firmer foot to rebuild Nigeria’s financially exhausted economy
A cursory glance on Obi’s production plan shows that Nigerian Youths are the backbone of the OK Production Plan, anchored in leverage, not only hope. Nigeria is among the few countries with over 60% of youth population.
Obi wants to leverage not only on the prudent management of our resources, but proven trustworthiness by the international community, to catalyse production by heavily investing in manufacturing, agriculture, technology and regional enterprise. Moving our economy from consumption to production will drive economic growth and GDP, create employment opportunities, encourage trade and specialization, foster innovation and technology, and increases government revenue through collection of income taxes, corporate, among others, for funding of infrastructure and security.
Permit me to state that Obi and Kwankwaso whilst not saints do not suffer the trust deficit of Tinubu and Atiku. One understands that they have started negotiations with investors for Kolmani Gas and Oil fields between Gombe and Bauchi, Mambilla Hydroelectric Power, Anambra Oil and Gas fields, Osun/Omeo States and Zamfara huge mineral deposits and other dormant projects.
In Agriculture, the OK government plans to upgrade Muhammadu Buhari’s Anchor Borrowers Program (which Tinubu abandoned) with huge investment and establishment of processing plants. The government also plans to adopt and upgrade the National Livestock Transformation Plan and launch huge Ranch Farms of over 100,000 Cows each in the Ranch Cities that will be located in Sambissa Forest, Fagge Kano and Saminaka Forests in the first phase.
In the electricity sector, the OK government intends to unbundle the Mambilla Power Plant, Anambra Basin, Owena, Kolmani, Niger Delta Gas Reserves and construct Super Transmission Grid to generate, transmit and distribute over 10,000 megawatts in the first phase.
The strategies for developing the oil and gas sector include supporting the Dangote Refinery and other private refineries, and most importantly, repair the country’s moribund refineries. They intend to invite the companies that manufactured the refineries, because they stand in a better position to repair their machines. OK will retain fuel subsidy removal, but will place transparency and accountability on the front burner, where every Nigerian will have access to its account books.
My understanding of Obi’s solution to recurring issue of fuel subsidy is to deploy insecticide and clean up the fuel value chain. For him fundamentals of tackling the endemic corruption, reducing fuel prices and fixing the refineries is War Against Corruption in NNPCL.
OK agenda also prioritises education and human capital development, drawing from Obi’s educational reforms in Anambra State-such as returning mission schools and boosting academic performance. The movement sees human capital development as a driver for national growth. Besides, Obi has advocated for harnessing the skills and resources of global Nigerian diaspora to rebuild the country’s infrastructure and innovation.
Where will an OK administration get the money from to do all these things? Local, and international investors, because of Obi’s transparency and accountability records, local and international investors and Nigerians in diaspora have pledged to support and partner with his Production Plan to lift millions out of poverty.
Finally, Obi intends to confront Nigeria’s insecurity through personal leadership, dual-track approach and intelligence-driven security reforms. He has pledged to personally coordinate security operations, oversee leadership from the front and spend working holidays within Nigeria to understand the challenges firsthand.
He has also pledged to adopt a dual-track approach of negotiating and engaging with bandits who want genuine peace, while dealing decisively with those that continue with their violent acvtivities. Finally, Obi’s security strategy emphasises modernising the security architecture through intelligence gathering and technology-driven operations, rather than relying on conventional military response.
• Abdukarim writes from Abuja.
