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Last Friday, the United States imposed fresh tariffs of between 10 and 12.5 per cent on imports from more than 80 countries, including Nigeria, citing concerns over the use of forced labour in global supply chains.
The new tariffs replace the blanket 10 per cent duty introduced earlier by President Donald Trump and took effect at midnight on Friday following the announcement.
According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the measures followed a five-month investigation into the efforts of America’s trading partners to eliminate goods produced with forced labour from their supply chains.
The USTR report alleged that Nigeria and 53 other economies failed to establish or effectively enforce prohibitions on the importation of goods made with forced labour, a finding that formed the basis for the latest tariff action.
The new tariffs, which will exempt oil and gas and fertiliser, followed the Supreme Court struck down in February of earlier duties President Donald Trump imposed last year.
The U.S. regretted that in spite of longstanding and universal agreement, forced labour continues to persist globally and has even increased in recent years, abetted by international trade.
Stakeholders say Nigeria’s inclusion among countries subjected to the higher U.S. tariff band raises fresh concerns about the country’s export competitiveness, foreign exchange earnings, industrialisation drive and the future of its trade relationship with the United States.
Findings by Daily Sun show that the United States remains one of Nigeria’s key export destinations. Bilateral trade has traditionally been driven by crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), fertilisers, agricultural produce, cocoa products, sesame seeds, solid minerals and an expanding range of non-oil manufactured goods.
Available trade data indicate that Nigeria exported goods worth about $5.3 billion to the U.S., while imports from America were estimated at $3.9 billion, leaving Nigeria with a trade surplus of approximately $1.4 billion.
Industry players also note that under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), many Nigerian products previously benefited from duty-free or preferential access to the U.S. market. They argue that the new tariff regime erodes part of that competitive advantage, making Nigerian exports less attractive and potentially reducing their market share in the United States.
While some maritime stakeholders said the hike in tariff will not have a significant effect, some said that it will affect Nigeria’s export competitiveness and foreign exchange earnings, as US buyers will look for other alternatives to get the cheaper products that originated from Nigeria.
Speaking with Daily Sun, former Acting National President of the Association of Nigerian Licensed Customs Agents (ANLCA), Kayode Farinto, said that the only implication is that it is going to increase the prices of these commodities in the market in the U.S.
“And because it is a tariff, so when you are jacking up and adding up about 12 something per cent to an initial established tariff, you don’t need a soothsayer to tell you that it’s going to increase the rate at which you purchase it over there.
“So now, that is why we have always advised the federal government, since we have other alternative markets, which is the China markets, in view of our understanding and the level of agreement vis-a-vis currency swap deal, Nigeria should begin to look elsewhere, from American markets to Far East, European markets and what-a view, to succor the kind of effect of whatever will happen on this American market. So, it’s not a big deal to me, it’s only telling us that we should not put our eggs in one basket, that’s just it.
“To me, it’s nothing, because the Nigerian government is looking beyond the American market. So, we are looking beyond the American market. Thank God our foreign trade with the Chinese is increasing on a yearly basis. So, I’m not afraid, it’s not a big deal, it’s only the American people that will suffer it,” he said.
The Head of Research, Sea Empowerment & Research Center (SEREC), Eugene Nweke, said that the decision by the United States Government to increase import tariffs from 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent on goods originating from Nigeria and several other countries marks another significant shift in global trade policy.
He noted that the measure, which Washington justified on the grounds of alleged inadequate safeguards against forced labour within supply chains, replaces the temporary tariff regime earlier introduced and now applies under a more durable legal framework.
Nweke revealed that the immediate implication of the 12.5 per cent import duty increases imposed on Nigeria products to the US is a loss of price competitiveness.
“An additional 12.5 per cent import duty increases the landed cost of Nigerian products in the American market. U.S. importers may therefore seek cheaper alternatives from countries enjoying lower tariff rates or domestic substitutes.
“The sectors most exposed include, agricultural exports, cocoa and processed cocoa products, sesame seeds, cashew, and leather products, manufactured consumer goods, selected mineral exports and some processed food products,” he said.
Although he hinted that crude oil may be less affected because of separate energy trade arrangements and exemptions for certain energy products, diversification efforts targeting non-oil exports may experience noticeable headwinds.
On the implications for Nigeria’s fragile economy, said that Nigeria’s economy remains vulnerable because crude oil still accounts for the overwhelming share of export earnings; non-oil exports are still developing; manufacturers continue to struggle with high energy costs, inflation, logistics bottlenecks and exchange-rate volatility.
He said that the additional tariff may therefore produce several ripple effects, saying that there will be decline in export earnings, and reduced competitiveness could lower export volumes to the U.S., resulting in lower foreign exchange inflows.
Putting pressure on the naira, he said that any sustained decline in export receipts weakens dollar inflows into Nigeria and could intensify pressure on exchange-rate stability, while export-oriented manufacturers may record declining orders, thereby affecting production capacity.
On employment risks, he said that agricultural value chains, logistics providers, freight forwarders, exporters and port operators may experience slower business activities if export demand contracts, adding that the hike in tariff would reduce exports and could affect tax receipts, port-related revenues and foreign exchange generation. From the maritime industry standpoint, prolonged export reductions may translate into lower export cargo throughput; fewer containerised export shipments; reduced shipping activities in the U.S.-bound trade routes; weaker earnings for freight forwarders; and lower cargo handling volumes at Nigerian seaports. While the impact may not be immediate, sustained tariff barriers could gradually reduce export traffic if alternative markets are not developed.
SEREC recommended that the Federal Government adopt a proactive rather than reactive response to initiate immediate diplomatic engagement with the U.S. Trade Representative to clarify the concerns underpinning Nigeria’s inclusion and strengthen labour compliance systems and supply-chain traceability in export industries to demonstrate adherence to international labour standards.
“Federal Government must accelerate export diversification under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), reducing dependence on any single export market, expand value-added manufacturing so Nigeria exports more processed goods instead of raw commodities, reduce domestic logistics costs through port reforms, improved transport infrastructure and customs modernization to offset part of the tariff burden.
“Provide targeted incentives and export financing for affected manufacturers and agricultural exporters, Intensify trade promotion in emerging markets across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America and strengthen collaboration among the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), the Nigeria Customs Service and private-sector exporters to ensure compliance with international labour and ESG standards.
He said that the new U.S. tariff should not merely be viewed as a trade restriction but as a strategic signal that international markets are becoming increasingly driven by compliance, sustainability, transparency and responsible sourcing.
“For Nigeria, this development reinforces the urgency of accelerating export diversification, improving production standards, strengthening trade diplomacy and deepening industrial competitiveness.
“If properly managed, this challenge can become a catalyst for repositioning Nigeria’s export sector toward higher-value production, stronger regulatory compliance and broader market diversification, thereby reducing long-term vulnerability to unilateral trade measures,” he recommended.
The Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf said that the new tariff regime represents a continuation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, albeit under a different legal framework.
“From Nigeria’s perspective, however, the economic impact of the tariffs is unlikely to be significant. The first reason is that Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S.
These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected.
“Second, the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export market. According to Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, total exports stood at approximately ₦21.6 trillion, of which exports to the United States accounted for only 5.56 per cent. By comparison, India accounted for 13.09 per cent, France 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands 9.22 per cent, and Spain 7.68 per cent. The United States ranked only the fifth-largest destination for Nigerian exports during the quarter.
“These trade patterns significantly moderate Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff regime. While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest. This is essentially a question of materiality,” he explained.
According to him, the products affected account for only a small proportion of Nigeria’s total exports, while the dominant export category to the U.S. remains outside the scope of the tariffs.
Nevertheless, he said that the development reflects a broader structural shift in global trade policy, saying that it reinforces the trend towards greater protectionism, industrial policy and strategic use of trade instruments to advance domestic economic objectives.
“This evolving environment calls for a stronger emphasis on export diversification, enhanced manufacturing competitiveness, increased domestic value addition and deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
“Nigeria should also sustain efforts to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage proactively with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to seek clarity on the implementation of the new measures and minimise any adverse effects on affected exporters.
“Overall, while the new U.S. tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated. The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” he said.
