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From Adewale Sanyaolu, Houston,Texas
Nigeria’s claims of nearing energy self-sufficiency have come under renewed scrutiny after the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr. Heineken Lokpobiri, acknowledged that the country still depends on imported petroleum products.
This contradicts assertions that domestic refining can fully meet local demand.
Speaking on the state of the downstream sector at the CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference in Houston,Texas, Lokpobiri acknowledged that while local refining capacity has improved significantly, it remains insufficient to fully cover national consumption.
The minister’s position directly clarifies the current state of supply, despite rising expectations around increased local refining capacity.
The minister noted that Nigeria is making measurable progress, with domestic refining contributing a growing share of supply.
However, he stressed that imports remain a critical component of the country’s fuel supply mix for now.
“We are not yet at a point where local production alone can satisfy total consumption,” he said, underscoring the need to sustain imports while capacity continues to build.
The minister emphasised that Nigeria’s daily fuel consumption stands at about 50 million litres, while domestic refining output remains below that level, making imports necessary to bridge the shortfall and ensure supply stability.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) aligns with this position, showing that although local refining volumes have risen in recent months, they are not yet sufficient to fully meet national demand.
“We are not yet at a point where local production alone can satisfy total consumption,” Lokpobiri said, stressing that imports remain part of the supply framework for now.
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Beyond the supply gap, the minister highlighted what he described as a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s petroleum sector following recent reforms.
He noted that Nigeria has moved away from a subsidy-driven regime that, for years, placed a heavy fiscal burden on the country and distorted the downstream market. According to him, the removal of subsidies has not only eased pressure on government finances but also curtailed widespread fuel smuggling and arbitrage that previously thrived under price differentials.
Lokpobiri said the deregulation of the downstream sector is beginning to deliver results, with a more transparent and competitive market structure emerging. This, he added, is helping to restore investor confidence and attract new investments into refining and related infrastructure.
The minister also pointed to ongoing efforts to rehabilitate existing refineries and support new refining projects, noting that these initiatives are critical to closing the gap between production and consumption.
He emphasised that while Nigeria is making steady progress toward boosting domestic refining capacity, the transition will take time, requiring sustained investment and policy consistency.
At the same time, Lokpobiri underscored Nigeria’s ambition to evolve beyond meeting local demand to becoming a supplier of refined petroleum products within the West African region.
However, he maintained that achieving that goal depends first on significantly expanding domestic capacity.
Recall that the Dangote refinery had in January this year said it can supply 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily against an estimated national consumption of 50 million litres, alongside 25 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) compared with an estimated daily demand of 14 million litres.
It also stated that it has the capacity to supply 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily, far above the estimated maximum domestic consumption of four million litres.
According to the refinery, the availability of volumes above prevailing demand provides critical supply buffers, enhances market stability and reduces reliance on imports, particularly during periods of peak demand or logistical disruption.
