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By Dotun Oyelami
For a quarter of a century, Nigeria has been an inspiration of democratic persistence in a turbulent region. Since 1999, despite its profound challenges, Africa’s most populous nation has maintained an unbroken, if imperfect, democratic system. This hard-won stability, modeled on a presidential republic with a separation of powers, between Executive, Legislative and Judiciary, is evidence to the desire for self-determination.
However, this resilience was recently tested by the revelation of a botched coup plot under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, a stark reminder that the threat of military intervention remains a live wire. The subsequent arrest and detention of several high-ranking officers, and the urgent rejig of the country’s intelligence apparatus, underscore a dual reality: Nigeria is both a target for anti-democratic forces and fiercely determined to defend its constitutional order. This internal alarm echoes a far broader and more disquieting regional trend.
Yet, just beyond its borders, a different story is unfolding, one of resurgent military takeovers that threaten to redraw the political map of the continent. The recent successful coups in Niger, Gabon, and Mali are not isolated incidents. They are symptoms of a deeper malaise, a pattern that has also seen attempts fail in countries like The Gambia and Sudan. This wave of authoritarian power grabs is not confined to the mainland; in Madagascar, a recent political crisis saw a consolidation of power by the ruling elite, bypassing democratic norms and further illustrating the flexible playbook used to truncate civilian rule. To understand this wave, we must look beyond the simple narrative of “power-hungry soldiers” and understand the complex realities of modern African governance, which are increasingly shaped by external actors seeking to fill a vacuum of influence. No player has been more active in this space recently than Russia, whose strategy of exploiting local grievances through disinformation and shadowy military contractors like the Wagner Group has proven devastatingly effective at destabilizing nations and rolling back democratic gains.
Military coups do not happen in a vacuum. They germinate in the soil of public frustration. Across the Sahel and beyond, citizens grapple with a painful trifecta: crushing poverty, rampant corruption, and a pervasive lack of security. When elected governments fail to deliver basic services, provide electricity, or protect citizens from jihadist violence, the populist appeal of a “strongman” promising to clean house becomes potent. The coups in Niger and Gabon were directly preceded by disputed elections, reinforcing a public sentiment that the democratic process was merely a facade for elite entitlement.
Compounding these governance failures are the ancient fissures of ethnic and religious intolerance. In many nations, political allegiances are drawn along tribal lines, and state resources are often perceived as spoils for the winning group. This marginalization of large segments of the population fractures national unity, making it easier for a military faction, often representing a specific ethnic or regional bloc, to justify seizing power under the banner of “liberation.”
Regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) were designed to be the guardians of constitutional order. However, their credibility has been severely weakened. Inconsistent responses to coups, coupled with sanctions that often punish populations more than juntas, have led to a backlash. The emergence of the “Alliance of Sahel States” by the juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is a direct challenge to this old order, creating a bloc of military-ruled nations that deepens regional division.
This internal fragility has created an opening, and external powers have been quick to step in, turning Africa into a new arena for geopolitical competition.
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Partner or Predator?
No external actor has been more active in this space recently than Russia. Its playbook is sophisticated, exploiting local grievances to expand its global influence. Through state-funded media, disinformation campaigns, and shadowy military contractors like the Wagner Group, Russia presents itself as an alternative to former colonial powers and a hesitant West.
In countries like the Central African Republic and Mali, Wagner mercenaries offer security in exchange for lucrative mining concessions. But this partnership comes at a steep cost: the suppression of democratic space, documented human rights abuses, and the propping up of authoritarian regimes. The case of Burkina Faso is particularly telling, where analysts suggest Russian actors may have actively instigated a coup, rather than merely capitalizing on the aftermath.
This strategy is not limited to military might. As seen in Angola, Russian operatives have been arrested for running disinformation campaigns aimed at stirring protests and destabilizing a democratically elected government. The goal is to weaken institutions from within, making countries more pliable and dependent.
Nigeria watches this unfolding drama with acute concern. Its own history is a stark reminder of the dangers, marked by five successful coups that led to decades of military rule. Today, the nation faces the same demons that fuel instability next door: economic inequality, a severe security crisis, and overstretched armed forces. The reported coup attempt within its own borders is a chilling warning that no nation is immune.
The fall of democratic governments in neighbouring Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso has created a dangerous security vacuum on Nigeria’s doorstep, allowing jihadist groups to flourish and expand, directly threatening its own national security.
The battle for the soul of Africa is not a simple fight between democracy and autocracy. It is a more nuanced struggle between governance that delivers for its people and governance that fails them. Military juntas and their external backers offer a seductively simple, but ultimately hollow, solution. True, lasting stability cannot be imposed at the barrel of a gun; it must be built from the foundation.
It requires strengthening institutions, not strongmen. It demands elections that are truly free and fair, and leaders who are accountable to their people, not to foreign interests. The resilience of Nigeria’s 25-year democratic experiment, for all its flaws, remains a powerful counter-narrative. The continent’s future hinges on its ability to address the root causes of discontent and prove that democracy is not just a ritual of voting, but a vehicle for a more just, secure, and prosperous life for all its people. The throne of democracy in Africa is unsteady, but it is a throne worth fighting for.
