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It is no more news that Nigeria’s next door neighbour, Niger Republic, is on the boil currently, following the toppling of its ‘civilian and democratically’ elected ruler, Mohammed Bazoum by some youthful hotheads in the country’s military.
What is baffling about the matter is how Nigeria could be contemplating taking its tackles to fish for trouble in the poisoned pond of that famished land.
This is so because President Bola Tinubu should have adopted a low profile of sobriety, not necessarily because of the dispute over his legitimacy in office but because he inherited a crushed country from his predecessor and fellow party man, Muhammadu Buhari. He ought to bury his head in work and think of how to pull Nigeria out of the brink instead of rushing to pick up another job as Chairman of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government, which has thrust him up into the biggest distraction, leading to beating the drums of war against Niger.
Perhaps, it needs to be stated from the onset that neither France nor USA would watch his back after they succeed in goading him into a needless war.
It seems that Tinubu has not yet grasped the enormity of the mess he inherited from Buari, who trusts Tinubu to resolve the internecine battle among his kinsmen in Niger after unwisely wasting our lean resources on that country as if it was Nigeria’s 37th state.
According to official statistics, over 130 million Nigerians faced multidimensional poverty. Considering the ravaging situation since Tinubu’s emergence, many more have joined the club of the downtrodden. Also, official records from the Debt Management Office, DMO, put Nigeria’s debt pile at almost N50 trillion. Even the World Bank, as at April 2023, raised alarm that Nigeria used 96 per cent of its 2022 revenue to service its humongous debts.
Apart from the profligate waste that characterised the Buhari administration that handed an empty shell to Tinubu, Nigeria is besieged on all fronts by terrorist fiends, such as Boko Haram ISWAP, bandits, killer herdsmen, unknown gunmen, armed separatists and oil thieves, which have led the new Chief of Army Staff, General Taoreed Lagbaja, to cry out for foreign assistance.
Ironically, Tinubu does not want to take cognizance of the situation, even if he pretends not to know. He also does not want to heed the observation of his COAS but would rather go into war with Niger while also needing foreign assistance at home.
At issue is the overthrow of ex-President Bazoum by the head of the Presidential Guard of Niger Republic, Gen. Abdulrahmane Omar Tchiani, who announced himself the new military leader. Niger is the fifth country in West Africa taken over by military rule in the past couple of years after Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad.
Tinubu and his co-travellers as heads of governments of ECOWAS have failed to interrogate why coups are gradually returning to the sub-region. They have failed to acknowledge that misrule, injustice and corruption are the main drivers of this ‘evil’.
The jubilation that heralded the coup in Niger and other places is an indication that the coupists are popular and appreciated by their people for coming to their rescue.
The question now is, whose interest are the ECOWAS leaders fighting; to protect their fellow corrupt and unwanted buccaneer president and France’s unending hold in the country or to save the people?
Nigeria must avoid being drawn into the proxy war between Russia, France, USA and China; otherwise, it will come out seriously burnt. The interest of these vulture nations is Niger’s uranium, not the people; they are intent on foisting unpopular regimes upon Africa for selfish reasons but that is crashing fast based on the new wind coursing through Africa and taking back the land for African people.
Nigeria is definitely not in a position to assimilate the millions of refugees that would flow into the country as a result of any war in Niger. Nigeria is already rendered prostrate by the devastation of bandits and the Boko Haram goons, which have pushed many out of their homes into deplorable lives in rundown IDP camps.
Venturing into any misadventure in Niger will certainly impose an additional burden on Nigeria. To be sure, these extremists would exploit the situation to foster their networks and Nigeria cannot afford to carry the concomitant disruptions, and allied implications.
It is strange that ECOWAS leaders describe the coupists as illegitimate. Perhaps, that word has been redefined in Africa. So, it is legitimate to subvert the peoples’ will by so-called civilian regimes, as even President George Weah of Liberia has warned, but illegitimate when the military does?
Indeed, Africa has a preponderance of ‘legitimate’ sit-tight geriatric pranksters, masquerading as leaders due to their adroit manipulation of the electoral process to cling to power but the bottom could be dropping off.
Nevertheless, a war in Niger Republic is not an option. It would further complicate an already bad situation and result in the escalation of terrorism, and worsening Nigeria’s economic woes.
It is an attractive argument that such a war would keep military adventurists in power at bay. Yes, but it is also a flawed and illogical argument. The only thing that could keep the so-called military adventurists from power is good governance and observance of democratic ethos. If these were respected, millions of Nigeriens would not be on the streets celebrating Bazuom’s ouster but would be protesting instead.
So, any international intervention must consider all sides of the matter and above all respect Niger’s sovereignty as an independent nation as well as resolve the leadership deficit in Africa. This must be done intentionally, intensely, and diplomatically. Restoring Bazuoam to power should be out of it because evidently, the people have rejected him.
It is worth emphasising that any thinking that war with Niger would be a walkover should be perished. Russian took that fatal gamble in Ukraine and has been seriously bruised after over one year. The spectre of war in Niger has also widened, as Mali and Burkina Faso have voiced their support and readiness to join in defending the country.
This is coupled with the certain involvement of Russia and the Wagner Mercenary, with the USA, also joining in the fray that would make Nigeria’s border a war theatre.
For sure, the junta has warned that “all aggression or attempt at aggression against the state of Niger will see an immediate response and without warning,” even as European countries have begun evacuating their nationals from the country.
Niger has also severed all links, including military agreements, with France, its former colonial ruler, and recalled its ambassador from Nigeria.
Tinubu’s insistence (I believe in his capacity as head of ECOWAS leaders) to restore ‘democracy’ in Niger, has angered residents of Niger Republic, who trooped out to protest against the Nigerian leader, wielding placards that bore deprecating messages. So, Nigeriens now see the matter more or less as Nigeria versus Niger imbroglio; a very sad scenario. Nigeria has also disconnected electricity supply to that country.
It is unfortunate that democracy is regressing in Africa due to the tendencies of seeming political leaders, who aspire to positions, only to become undemocratic despots once that power is attained.
Of course, there are also inordinately ambitious soldiers, who strike but are guilty of the same infractions they accuse those they overthrow.
The Nigerien war-posturing is more than quenching a fire outbreak in your neigbour’s house. Common sense would dictate that you do everything to prevent the fire from extending to your own house, especially a neighbour that had been repeatedly warned on the dangers of storing gasoline at home rather than become an untrained firefighter and get consumed.
To be sure, what happened in Niger is condemnable but avoidable. This is the lesson for all ECOWAS leaders. When people get into office, they should realise that they are there to serve the people, and not otherwise.
Tinubu should please, come out this nightmarish contemplation and let the dead in Niger bury their dead; he has so many dead bodies on his plate in Nigeria to bury. He needs to bury his first before helping anyone else bury theirs.
