Follow Us on Google
By Adewale Sanyaolu
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.5 per cent in 2026.
Olusegun Omisakin, NESG’s chief economist and director of research and development, spoke on Thursday at the launch of the group’s ‘2026 Macroeconomic Outlook’ report in Lagos.
On Tuesday, the World Bank increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecasted in June 2025.
The global financial institution also upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2027 to 4.4 percent from 3.8 percent.
In the NESG report, themed “Consolidating economic stabilisation gains: pathway to sustainable growth in Nigeria,” the group outlined key targets for the economy in 2026, including a 16 percent inflation rate and an exchange rate of N1,480 per dollar.
The external reserves are also expected to rise to $52 billion.
Omisakin said the country is currently in a consolidation phase, having recorded notable improvements in GDP, inflation control, and foreign reserves management, but warned that significant challenges remain.
The NESG economist highlighted four pillars critical to sustaining Nigeria’s economic gains which include macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, institutional strength, and social protection.
On macroeconomic stability, Omisakin emphasised the need for single-digit inflation in the long term, foreign reserves above $50 billion, and maintenance of positive real interest rates.
Structural transformation, he said, requires attention to agriculture, manufacturing, power, and export diversification.
“We have the manufacturing sector growing at 1.5 percent and the agricultural sector by two percent. This is a risky signal, as we have huge sectors that are not fulfilling the fundamentals of our consolidation goals in terms of job creation and inclusive growth, and infrastructure development,” he said.
On institutional strength, Omisakin noted the need for improved implementation of new tax laws, fiscal discipline, and transparency in public spending.
Social protection and job creation, the economist said, must shift from merely insulating citizens from economic shocks to actively integrating them into productive activities.
Also, the NESG official flagged several risks to economic consolidation, including policy inconsistency, sectoral constraints such as security challenges and low agricultural productivity, external shocks from global markets, and capacity gaps in institutions.
“We want to also advise that we take the issue of tax very seriously in terms of the implementation and the capacity within the institution to carry out what is necessary,” he said.
The research director said the NESG’s 2026 projections are framed to build a foundation for sustained growth through 2027 and beyond, with the focus on agriculture, manufacturing, and the financial sector deepening.
Omisakin stressed that failing to consolidate the gains could see growth slip back to 2–3 percent.
He urged the government to implement the consolidation agenda with discipline and transparency, stressing the critical nature of the current economic moment.
“For private sector, the need to partner, not only to partner with government, but also to hold government accountable for reforms, which is one of the critical missions of NESG,” he said.
Omisakin further called on international partners to maintain technical and financial support, amplify Nigeria’s credibility on the global stage, and actively monitor and report on the country’s economic consolidation progress.
Also speaking, Niyi Yusuf, chairman of NESG, said Nigeria has emerged from one of the most challenging adjustment periods in its recent economic history.
Yusuf said 2024-2025 marked a stabilisation phase characterised by major structural reforms in foreign exchange management, energy pricing, and monetary policy.
He said the measures, though painful, were necessary to restore macroeconomic stability and reduce systemic volatility.
The chairman noted that while GDP growth strengthened to 3.8 percent in the first nine months of 2025 — up from 3.2 percent in the same period in 2024 — growth remained services-driven, accounting for nearly 60 percent of GDP.
The NESG boss added that manufacturing and agriculture underperformed, constrained by high energy costs, security challenges, and logistics issues.
“Stabilisation alone does not equate to prosperity. Growth remains modest and uneven, driven by a narrow set of sectors, with weak transmission to employment and household incomes,” he said.
“Oil purchasing power remains under pressure, and welfare outcomes continue to lag behind macro indicators.
These realities underscore a critical point. Stability is a necessary condition for growth, but it is not sufficient.
Yusuf said consolidation represents a medium-term transition phase, where the gains achieved from stabilisation must be reinforced and translated into productivity improvements across the economy.
“The structural bridge between reforms and results, and in this phase, reduction in macroeconomic disruption must be deliberately leveraged to remove bottlenecks that constrain output, investment, and competitiveness,” the chairman added.
Yusuf said for Nigeria, consolidation calls for a change in focus, with policies moving from sectoral inconsistency to coherence, from reactive measures to system building, and from temporary fixes to stronger institutional frameworks.
