Naira hits highest level in 9 months as Dangote predicts N1,100/$

…Stronger dollar supply, reform momentum, global calm boost FX outlook

By Uche Usim

The naira continued its upward march on Tuesday, appreciating to N1,337 per dollar at the official foreign exchange window from N1,344 recorded a day earlier.

This is comes from figures published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The latest close represents the currency’s strongest official showing since May 29, 2024, when it settled at N1,329.65/$, a signal that recent stabilisation efforts may be gaining traction.

Momentum was equally evident in the parallel market, where the naira strengthened to N1,382.5/$ compared with N1,393.35/$ on Monday. The modest narrowing between official and street rates reflects improved dollar liquidity and easing speculative pressure.

Analysts link the rebound to firmer FX supply conditions, steady monetary tightening and improving sentiment among portfolio investors.

Global dynamics have also played a supporting role. The United States dollar index held largely steady amid diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran and ongoing negotiations involving Ukraine and Russia, developments that have marginally improved global risk appetite.

Investors are also awaiting minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee and fresh GDP data for clearer guidance on potential interest rate cuts. Such signals typically shape capital flows into emerging markets like Nigeria, influencing exchange rate performance and investor positioning.

The strengthening currency comes just days before the CBN’s 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting slated for February 23 and 24, 2026. At its November 2025 meeting, the MPC retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27 per cent, sustaining a restrictive stance aimed at curbing inflation and anchoring FX stability. In September 2025, the committee trimmed the MPR by 50 basis points from 27.5 per cent to 27 percent and narrowed the asymmetric corridor to +250/-250 basis points from +500/-100.

The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, recently reiterated that Nigeria is playing a key role in advancing Africa’s single currency agenda, a move seen as reinforcing policy credibility and long-term currency stability.

Amid the improving FX landscape, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, struck an optimistic note, projecting that the naira could strengthen to as low as N1,100 per dollar this year if reform momentum is sustained.

Dangote made the remarks on Tuesday in Abuja at the launch of the Nigeria Industrial Policy, attended by Vice President Kashim Shettima and senior government officials. He said manufacturers are already feeling the impact of ongoing reforms.

“I mean, today, if you look at it, Your Excellency, I believe with the policies that you have implemented in government, people now have started seeing the result, and manufacturers are very, very happy,” he said.

According to him, aggressive import substitution and expanded domestic production would significantly reduce demand for foreign exchange.

“Today, the dollar is N1,340. Mr. Vice-President, I can assure you that, with what I know, by blocking all this importation, the currency this year will be as low as N1,100 if we are lucky. The only thing is for, maybe, the government to stop the naira from getting stronger so that they will keep collecting more naira.

“But it’s a catch-22 situation where, now, if the naira gets stronger, it means that everything will go down. Everything will go down because we are an import-based country, which we shouldn’t be. What we should be doing is manufacturing all the things that we need.”

Dangote emphasised that industrial policy must be reinforced with reliable electricity, infrastructure upgrades and incentives that protect local investors.

Should the naira advance toward N1,100/$, or even below N1,000/$ as some market participants anticipate, the macroeconomic ripple effects could be significant: lower import costs, reduced inflationary pressure, improved purchasing power and renewed investor confidence.

Still, economists warn that exchange rate performance hinges on multiple variables, including oil prices, capital inflows, fiscal discipline and global monetary conditions.

For now, the naira’s ascent to a nine-month high signals growing confidence in reform efforts. Whether that confidence translates into a sustained rally will depend on policy consistency, global stability and the signals that emerge from the CBN’s upcoming MPC deliberations.