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• APC cringes as Jonathan’s rumoured ambition complicates political calculation
By Omoniyi Salaudeen
The way leading opposition figures are pursuing an alliance to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general election is a paradox. The harder they push for a united front, the harder it becomes for interest groups to coalesce. At present, the contest is defined by a clash between the desire for a single candidate and the personal ambitions of those leading the charge.
Peter Obi’s defection from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the newly formed National Democratic Congress (NDC) has thrown the coalition into disarray, fuelling mutual accusations of betrayal. It is a seismic shift for Nigeria’s opposition landscape. By leaving the ADC for the NDC, Obi has effectively redrawn the battle lines ahead of 2027.
The ADC was conceived as a mega-party—a united front capable of unseating the APC. But the exit of both Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso has left the coalition in a precarious position. It was already buckling under legal disputes and competing ambitions. Obi’s departure proved the final straw, triggering a mass exodus of key figures.
With Obi gone, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains the ADC’s main heavyweight. The split now points to a divided opposition vote, which many analysts believe strengthens President Tinubu’s hand.
High-profile allies like Senators Victor Umeh and Rufai Hanga have followed Obi to the NDC, while Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe has returned to the Labour Party, further hollowing out the ADC’s legislative strength. The NDC, registered by former Bayelsa Governor Seriake Dickson, is now the new home for the Obidient movement. There is strong speculation that the party will field an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket, with reports suggesting Obi may pledge to serve only one term to secure Kwankwaso’s support.
The NDC itself only recently emerged from a legal battle to secure INEC registration. Obi has already warned members against the politics of litigation that destabilised both the ADC and the Labour Party.
Brickbats
Expectedly, Obi’s switch has triggered mutual accusations of betrayal. ADC Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi said the defections were premeditated, citing a meeting in Kano two months ago involving Obi, Kwankwaso, and Dickson. “After that meeting, I reached out to Governor Dickson to ask what had transpired. Kwankwaso had been considering joining the ADC and suddenly things changed. This suggests the defections were pre-planned. It even raises the question of whether Kwankwaso’s involvement in the ADC was a Trojan horse from the onset,” he said.
ADC Deputy National Financial Secretary, Oladimeji Fabiyi described Obi as a leader who avoids confrontation and fights only for himself. “When you look at Peter Obi’s trajectory, he is not a man who likes to face challenges. He is not a leader who fights for the people—only for himself,” he stated.
Senator Dino Melaye echoed the sentiment on X, arguing that Obi lacks the capacity to handle Nigeria’s challenges. “Peter Obi runs from tough situations. If he cannot face party crises, how does he intend to handle Nigeria? Nigeria’s problems are far worse than the ADC’s. He can only operate in an air-conditioned kitchen. Hot kitchens are not for him,” he wrote.
NDC supporters have fired back, accusing Atiku of treating the ADC as a personal platform. Hon Ifeanyi Uzokwe, a House of Representatives member who recently joined the NDC, said he and others left because Atiku claimed the coalition was formed in his house and that “nobody can tell him anything.” Uzokwe added that Atiku made the remark when they asked him to step aside for southern candidates—specifically Obi and Rotimi Amaechi—in the primaries, but he refused.
The 2023 split-vote maths
While Obi’s defection consolidates his core supporters under a new banner, it risks repeating the 2023 scenario where a fragmented opposition handed victory to the ruling party. In Nigerian politics, there is an old saying: “When two brothers fight to the death, a stranger inherits their father’s house.” By failing to present a single candidate, the opposition risks turning 2027 into a referendum on its own divisions rather than on the incumbent’s record.
The 2023 results show why. INEC’s official figures gave Bola Tinubu (APC) 8.79 million votes, while Atiku (PDP) and Obi scored 6.98 million and 6.10 million respectively. Kwankwaso (NNPP) managed 1.50 million. Combined, Atiku and Obi held over 13 million votes—well above Tinubu’s 8.79 million. While it is an oversimplification to assume every Obi voter would have backed Atiku, or vice versa, the split allowed the APC to win with just 36.6 per cent of the total vote, the lowest winning percentage in Nigeria’s democratic history.
The 2027 cycle looks set for déjà vu. With Obi and Kwankwaso now in the NDC and Atiku holding the ADC, the opposition is essentially repeating the 2023 structure. The tactical advantage has shifted to Tinubu’s camp while the opposition fragments and the ruling party consolidate.
This three-way split makes it nearly impossible for any single opposition candidate to meet the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent of votes in two-thirds of the states.
The APC’s victory in the recent FCT Area Council elections served as a dry run, showing a party building structure while the opposition struggles to unite. If the NDC and ADC both contest in January 2027, they are likely to cancel each other out in key battlegrounds like the North-Central and South-South.
The narrative that the opposition is too divided now dominates conversations among political players, especially APC supporters—and for good reason. Historically, a fragmented opposition in Nigeria has paved the way for the incumbent’s victory.
Bolaji Abdullahi expressed concern over the implication of Obi’s move to the NDC. “It was difficult even as a single coalition to challenge an incumbent. What Peter Obi and Kwankwaso have done is to make it even more difficult, but not impossible. They have turned it into a three-horse race rather than a two-horse race. A two-horse race was difficult enough, but it was easier to manage.
“Now we have a three-horse race. It’s not impossible for us to win, because the mission is very clear. But what they have done is to help President Bola Tinubu, because at one point it was very clear that it was him versus the Nigerian people. What they have done now is to hand him a lifeline. Peter Obi and Kwankwaso, by their action, have handed President Tinubu a lifeline. There’s no contradiction about it. What they are looking for is a political party that guarantees them tickets from day one,” he said.
The Secretary of the Ijaw Elders Forum, Efiye Bribena, argued that the opposition is now more strategic than in 2023. “The issues are not like 2023 concerning Obi’s defection to the ADC. We really don’t know whether Atiku is going to contest, because it’s not certain that the ADC will present a presidential candidate.
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“Again, the opposition is more strategic this time in their planning. They might field a single candidate. Obi’s defection could be part of that plan, given the complications that have emerged in the ADC. It could also be a move to look for a less complicated platform. So I don’t think the same scenario will play out in 2027. If it does, the results won’t be any different from the 2023 election. It would make it easier for the APC to benefit from a divided opposition.”
An ADC chieftain in Lagos, Tunji Shelle, added: “The scenario looks like they want to hand the return ticket to Tinubu, but it’s not going to be that simple. Most of us don’t know what direction the North will go as a region. The current calculation looks like a North-South dichotomy.”
Senator Ayo Arise, a Tinubu supporter, told Sunday Sun that the opposition poses no real threat. “The fact that they have resolved to present a single candidate does not necessarily mean victory. Most of them have been in government before. The APC campaign committee’s job is to make the issues clear to the public and drive the message to the grassroots. President Tinubu has done a lot to improve lives across several sectors. As long as we have popular candidates at the grassroots, I do not see the opposition as a threat. Opposition will always be there, but it is not a threat to the APC,” he said.
He pointed to social welfare programmes, NELFUND student loans, and nationwide road projects as policies the APC will campaign on at the local level.
Obi’s move to the NDC weeks after the Ibadan Declaration—which promised a single opposition candidate for 2027—suggests that proposal may have been dead on arrival. The Presidency has already dismissed the opposition’s moves as constant lamentation. While the APC uses the 2026 FCT elections as preparation for 2027, the opposition remains mired in blame games. If it continues to prioritise ego over a real merger, it risks handing Tinubu a clear path to re-election.
The Jonathan factor
The speculation about a potential return of former President Goodluck Jonathan has further complicated the calculations. Because he is eligible for only one more four-year term, his candidacy poses a strategic threat to several political blocs.
For northern political actors, a Jonathan presidency offers the shortest route back to power. If a southerner serves a full eight-year term from 2027, the North would wait until 2035. But a Jonathan victory in 2027 would legally require a handover to the North by 2031, cutting the wait time in half.
To that extent, any move toward Jonathan is a direct threat to Tinubu’s second-term viability and could fracture the APC’s base.
Legally, the situation is murky. Experts argue he is eligible, but opponents cite the Fourth Alteration to the Constitution, which bars anyone sworn in to complete a predecessor’s term from being elected to the office more than once. That provision remains a legal landmine.
Jonathan’s candidacy would also create tension with the South-East, which has been vocal about its turn for the presidency. For South-West actors, his entry would directly challenge the region’s hold on the executive and force a recalculation of alliances.
As 2027 approaches, Jonathan’s silence or eventual statement remains one of the most volatile variables in Nigeria’s political landscape.
Bribena dismissed the idea of Jonathan re-entering the race. “I don’t think Jonathan is going to throw his hat into the ring. If you listened to him during that press conference, he was talking about making wide consultations. But there isn’t time for wide consultations—the race is already here.”
He added that the push to draft Jonathan is meant to serve northern interests. “The speculation about Jonathan’s interest is a deliberate ploy by some northern interests to muddy the waters. Some people from the North want Jonathan to contest because they’re sure he cannot do more than four years. Those are the people trying to drag him into the race. Even if he does enter the race, it won’t be on the NDC platform, because the NDC has conceded the ticket to Obi.”
Shelle said Jonathan’s entry would trigger surprises from all fronts. “If Jonathan is cleared to contest, there will be surprises from different angles. The APC will be shocked, because the bulk of the votes will come from the North. The South will be divided among so many interests. Southerners will generally go for a credible candidate. Northerners will be told where to go, and they’ll vote the way they’re directed,” he stated.
Timeline challenge
With the 2027 election only months away, time is the opposition’s biggest adversary. The Obidient movement is betting on Obi being on the NDC ballot, while Atiku’s camp insists the ADC will overcome its legal hurdles and bounce back.
“There is nothing wrong with our party. Perhaps something is wrong with those leaving. They are the ones who can explain why, especially Mr Peter Obi. We have flimsy court cases that cannot stop us. From a legal standpoint, we have nothing to lose,” Fabiyi said.
But time is not on their side.
Obi brings name recognition, a loyal youth base, and credibility with the middle class. His defection gives the NDC instant visibility and legitimacy. Transferring 6.1 million votes to a new party in eight months is not automatic. Some supporters remain loyal to him; others will stay with the LP platform.
The big question is whether Obi can build enough momentum in eight months to confront the incumbent. Momentum requires more than a defection or a name. It requires structure, message, and money. The NDC needs a functional nationwide footprint, ward-level agents, and credible candidates in all 36 states. Building that from scratch in eight months is tough when the APC and PDP already have established machinery.
The APC has incumbency advantage. The NDC needs deep-pocketed backers and a unified donor base—fast. Tinubu is being heavily criticized for the cost of living, inflation, and security. That is the opening. But he also controls federal appointments, budget disbursements, and party machinery. Unless there is a major economic shock or an APC split, incumbency remains a heavy advantage. He also has eight months to reframe the narrative with projects and palliatives.
With primaries, candidate selection, and campaigning all overlapping before May 2027, the NDC must resolve internal leadership, avoid the factionalism that killed past third-force movements, and present a unified ticket. The APC and PDP have already started that work.
To make an impact, the NDC may need a formal merger with the LP and other opposition blocs, not just individual defections. It also needs a clear policy platform focused on inflation and insecurity, not elite politics. Early wins in the upcoming Osun off-cycle election and other by-elections would help prove viability and attract voters.
If Obi, Atiku, and others run on separate tickets, Tinubu will likely win. With Obi as its standard bearer, the NDC can become a serious challenger—but only if it consolidates the opposition quickly.
Bribena, however, did not see time as a major constraint. “Unlike last time, the Obidient movement and the Kwankwaso movement now have the opportunity to set up structures before the next election. And eight months is more than adequate to do that,” he declared.
Shelle is betting that Obi will not get the NDC ticket. “Obi thinks he’ll get the NDC ticket on a platter. To the best of my knowledge, Kwankwaso too cannot be trusted. Let’s wait and see what will happen. Other parties will do another realignment with the ADC, and it’s going to be fine.
“The NDC was carefully registered by Seriake Dickson to take care of the interests of the Niger Delta. He was deliberate about building the party up to a stage where it would serve his people’s interests. Now, strange bedfellows have moved in. That’s why you now see some people clamouring for Jonathan to come back. These are the complications the opposition parties are facing,” Shelle lamented.
