Middle East crisis threatens Nigeria as oil eyes $200/barrel — S&P

From Adewale Sanyaolu, Houston,Texas

Escalating tensions involving Iran and the disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are triggering fears of a full-scale global energy shock, with far-reaching implications for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria.

Speaking Monday at CERAWeek, in Houston, Texas, Director, Energy Advisory at S&P Global Commodity Insights, Karim Fawaz, warned that the crisis extends beyond crude supply disruptions to a broader breakdown in refined products markets globally.

Fawaz described the unfolding situation as a “cascading crisis,” noting that refining systems — not just crude flows — are highly exposed. According to him, more than half of global refining capacity is directly or indirectly affected due to reliance on crude and feedstocks from the Middle East.

He emphasised that refined products such as jet fuel, diesel, and petrochemical feedstocks are particularly vulnerable, with global trade flows already showing strain.

“Nearly 40 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports and close to 50 per cent of Africa’s jet fuel imports are tied to the Middle East,” Fawaz noted, adding that petrochemical markets, especially in Asia, are heavily dependent on supplies from the region.
Fawaz outlined two possible scenarios: a base case where disruptions ease within weeks, and a more severe “oil shock” scenario where flows remain constrained for months.