By Oluseye Ojo

As Nigeria steadily approaches the 2027 general election, the nation’s political arena is rife with speculations and strategic positioning by various political figures.

At the forefront of the conversation in Oyo State is Governor Seyi Makinde, the incumbent, whose name has gained traction as a potential presidential candidate.

Current political climate

The political environment in Nigeria, particularly ahead of any major election, is dynamic and often unpredictable.

Since the 2023 elections, where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) secured victories in key states, there has been an ongoing debate regarding the capabilities of various political leaders.

With less than two years to the next general election, discussions about potential candidates for various positions are becoming more vigorous, and for many the question is not only “who” but also “what do they stand for”.

Makinde’s name has emerged repeatedly among those discussed as a potential presidential candidates.

Advocates and supporters within the Oyo State political structure, including a group named Progressive Youths for Makinde’s Presidency 2027, have publicly pushed for his candidacy.

They cite his administration’s achievements in areas such as revenue generation, economic sustainability and human capital development as strong bases for his suitability for the national office.

As the national convener of the group, Alex Odianarewo, emphatically stated there is a belief among his supporters that Makinde possesses the qualities necessary to “rescue the country from bad leadership.”

Ambivalence and caution

The enthusiasm among Makinde’s supporters has been seen to be palpable. However, there is a notable ambivalence emanating from the governor himself.

During the inauguration of the South-West PDP Zonal Office, a project he personally championed, Makinde made it abundantly clear that he would determine his political future, negating any external pressures or agenda. He further insisted, “If I want to contest for any position, I will say it myself. Nobody would set an agenda for me, apart from myself.”

For people in Makinde’s political cycle, they his remarks suggested that he is a strategic planner, careful to analyse the landscape and the concrete implications of stepping into a nationwide race.

Political pundits have also argued that behind Makinde’s reluctance lies a deeper layer of political maneuvering. “There are insinuations that his ties to the controversial Integrity Group, which supported Bola Tinubu of All Progressives Congress over Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party during the 2023 presidential election, might complicate his presidency bid.

“Is Governor Makinde simply navigating the turbulent waters of intra-party politics, or does he have a genuine interest in the presidency? Time shall tell. I have also heard speculations that Makinde intends to join the 2027 presidential race because he does not want Atiku Abubakar to get the party’s presidential ticket. Then, time shall also tell,” said a PDP chieftain, who preferred anonymity.

Challenges and criticism from opponents

Despite his supporters fuelling the presidential speculation, Makinde’s aspirations are not without formidable opposition. The APC, particularly through its National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, has responded to Makinde’s ambition with pointed criticisms, urging him to focus on addressing governance issues within Oyo State rather than potential presidential gamesmanship.

Morka said, “While our democracy affords Makinde the liberty to pursue his political aspirations, engaging in reckless executive flippancy at the expense of the role he was elected to fulfil as governor is a disservice to the good people of Oyo State.

“If Makinde knew how to keep APC’s influence at bay, then why has he not employed that strategy to ‘protect’ his party nationally? Like the proverbial bad workman who blames his tools, Makinde and his co-confused PDP leaders should quit pointing fingers at the APC and take full responsibility for their disgraceful failure to manage the party’s implosion and decay.”

Morka’s comments came in response to Governor Makinde’s remarks at the opening of the South-West Zonal Office of the PDP in Ibadan that the 2027 election would be a contest between the ruling APC and Nigerians.

Also, speaking in the same vein, a former APC gubernatorial aspirant in Oyo State, Oyedele Hakeem Alao, publicly lambasted Makinde for what he termed “poor management of the state’s resources,” arguing that the pattern casts significant doubts over Makinde’s viability as a presidential candidate.

He further noted that, “When your performance as the governor of Oyo State is used as a yardstick for the presidency, you will struggle to secure your party’s ticket, let alone become Nigeria’s President.”

The narrative painted by Makinde’s critics might have suggested that his local governance record—a blend of alleged incompetence and unmet expectations—could undermine his national ambitions.

Political observers and commentators are already beginning to question whether Makinde’s ambitions are substantive or merely political performances meant to gain favour among party loyalists or distract from pressing state-level issues.

Fallout from PDP governors’ meeting in Ibadan

When governors elected on the platform of the PDP met in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, on April 14, 2025,  they discussed issues affecting the party and the state of the nation. Makinde, who hosted them, said the meeting was necessary to deliberate on the way forward for PDP as “we reposition the party as the best option for Nigerians in 2027.”

At the end of the meeting,  the Peoples Democratic Party Governors’ Forum (PDPGF) ruled out forming a coalition with any political party ahead of the 2027 elections.

The forum resolved that the door of PDP was open to individuals and groups interested in joining the party, and not the other way round. The governors were optimistic that PDP would take over power in the country in 2027.

According to the communique, “On the nationwide speculations about possible merger of parties, groups and/or associations, the forum resolved that the party will not join any coalition or merger.

“However, the PDP as a major political party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join us with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”

The forum took the position based on the move by some opposition parties to form a coalition to oust President Bola Tinubu and APC from the presidency in 2027 through ballots.

Following the meeting, Nyesom Wike, a former two-term PDP governor of Rivers State, at a media chat in Abuja four days after the PDPGF meeting, fired the forum. He took a swipe at proponents and opponents of the proposed coalition.

His words: “None of the factions is being truthful. Those who say they want to form a coalition are not truthful to themselves, those who say they don’t want the coalition are also not truthful to themselves. It is just a matter of interest.

“Let me start from those who say they don’t want coalition—that is the PDP Governors’ Forum. They are not sincere to themselves, they are not sincere to the party.

“I called the governor, Seyi Makinde, my friend, and said: ‘Listen, I heard what you said, but you know you did not say the truth as regards some issues. You said in 2023 that one of the reasons why PDP lost is impunity, you are right. People who believe they have all it takes and so refused to respect the constitution of the party, regarding power-sharing between the North and the South.

“And now, you are also making the same mistake by the impunity of the Governors’ Forum. You are repeating the same thing. What happened in 2023 may likely repeat itself. If you don’t stop this impunity, it will affect the party.

“Everybody wants to be President. Nobody wants to say, ‘Okay, let me build our party,’ so that at the end of the day, our party will be in a formidable position as an opposition party to take over power.”

In less than one month after the incident, the entire PDP structure in Delta State, including the governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, and his immediate predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, who was the 2023 vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar on the PDP platform, dissolved into APC. Thereafter, some notable figures in PDP have either indicated interest and readiness to join APC or have joined the ruling party.

Political commentators have also noted that the mass defection and internal crisis rocking PDP might make it difficult for any presidential candidate from PDP to stand any chance against President Tinubu of APC.

But as a member of the PDP’s Integrity Group, Makinde’s reputed closeness to the Minister of Federal Capital Territory, Wike, who is a key figure in the ruling APC-led federal government  cabinet, might either bolster his credentials or create friction within party lines.

It has also been observed that the spectre of ethnic nationalism looms large over Nigeria’s political discourse.Discussions around region-centric ambitions often reinvent debates about who can authentically represent Nigeria’s diverse demographics.

Makinde’s Oyo roots juxtaposed against the backdrop of Nigeria’s complex socio-political fabric may invite additional scrutiny regarding his appeal to a broader national electorate, especially when he want to contest against President Bola Tinubu.

But the publicity secretary of PDP in Oyo State, Michael Ogunsina, during a telephone conversation with our correspondent, said: “I must say that Governor Seyi Makinde is eminently qualified. He has a latent capacity, and the mental intelligence needed to lead this nation.

“Seyi Makinde has a knack for excellence, and he knows how to handle complex things in a very simple manner.

“Now, these agitations for a Seyi Makinde presidency are actually being promoted by people who are not from Oyo State. They feel that, if this man can change the story of Oyo State, if we give him the privilege, he can also make a change, he can change the story of Nigeria positively.”

Road ahead

From a tactical perspective, Makinde’s eventual decision to pursue any presidential aspiration demands steady hands on the governance wheel of Oyo State. His management of local issues will be pivotal not only in setting his performance narrative but also in shaping voter perceptions heading into 2027. However, there is an inherent tension between addressing immediate state challenges and courting national ambitions.

The governor’s commitment to focusing on solidifying party unity is essential. His insistence that the next general election will be “APC versus Nigerians” signifies a politically astute awareness of the dichotomy between party loyalty and public sentiment. This sentiment, as expressed during his opening remarks for the South-West PDP Zonal Office, calls for intra-party collaboration as a precursor to winning broader public support.

Makinde’s extended outreach to consolidate party support amid calls for unity suggests that he recognizes the battleground that will develop over the next year and a half. Maximizing resource pools, ensuring strategic partnerships, and refraining from overcommitting too early may be keys to his potential success.

While speculations on Makinde’s 2027 presidential ambition could have been substantially dominating headlines, the reality encompasses a complex interplay of ambition, governance, and political strategy. His artful avoidance of premature declarations combined with internal party dynamics provides a rich tapestry for analysis.

Personal assistant to Governor Makinde,  Alhaji Akeem Azeez, when contacted, said his principal has said publicly that authentic information on his aspiration for the 2027 presidential poll would always come from him.

He added that the governor has not set up any team to prosecute the ambition.

“So, everything you hear from him is the authentic information. He has not authorised anyone to speak on his behalf as far as the 2027 presidential poll is concerned,” Azeez said.

In the same vein, the Publicity Secretary of PDP in Oyo State, Michael Ogunsina, when contacted corroborated Akeem Azeez’s submission, saying: “The governor has said it everywhere that nobody can set an agenda for him. He has not communicated officially to anybody that he wants to become president in 2027.  If he has done that, I would have known. But for me, I desire him to be the president.”