Kwankwaso has boxed himself into tightest corner politically – Keyamo

By John Ogunsemore

Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo on Sunday said former Kano State Governor, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso may have boxed himself into the tightest corner of his political career by refusing to align with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The Senior Advocate of Nigeria stated this in a lengthy X post in which he outlined what he described as “facts” about Kwankwaso’s predicament.

Keyamo, an APC chieftain, argued that Kwankwaso’s refusal of the ruling party’s “olive branch” has left him with limited options amid internal turmoil in the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), including a wave of defections that could erode his influence in Kano, his political stronghold.

“Kwankwaso wants to be president, but none of the major political parties will pick him as a candidate in 2027,” Keyamo stated, noting that both the APC and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are likely to zone their tickets to the South, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is dominated by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

He dismissed the NNPP as a “one-state party” weakened by recent defections, including Kano governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, and questioned its ability to hold Kano in the 2027 elections.

Keyamo further claimed Kwankwaso would not back a Northern candidate like Atiku in 2027, as it could delay his own presidential bid by up to 16 years, leaving him at age 86 by 2043.

He said, “Kwankwaso WILL NOT support a Northern candidate because that ends his own Presidential ambition since he MAY have to wait for another 16 years after 2027 to get a shot at the Presidency – 8 likely years for the Northern Candidate and another 8 likely years when it rotates to the South again. That’s a gamble he WILL NOT TAKE. He will be 86 years old by then.

“So, this entirely rules out an ATIKU-Kwankwaso cooperation in 2027.”

He suggested Kwankwaso’s viable path lies in 2031, but only if he forges alliances now—potentially with the PDP, APC, or Labour Party (LP)—each of which requires suspending his 2027 ambitions or accepting a vice-presidential role, options Keyamo deemed unlikely.

“If his grip on Kano slips in 2027, it will water down his clout and influence in 2031 to be handed a Presidential ticket by any of the major Political parties.

“This is the time he can cash in on his presumed dominance of Kano politics and take a chance,” Keyamo explained.

The minister warned that without merging with a major party, Kwankwaso risks becoming a “local champion” like the late President Muhammadu Buhari with his defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) before its merger into the APC, and that the NNPP’s grip on Kano may “soon vanish” due to current challenges.

Keyamo said, “With the PDP now gasping for breath, it may be easier for Kwankwaso to return to PDP on some terms (like taking over the entire structure in Kano and some North West States and returning Kano to PDP). And that will signal the death of NNPP. But with the zoning of the Presidential ticket to the South, that would mean a suspension of his 2027 Presidential ambition till 2031.

“If Kwankwaso decides to pitch tent with the APC, he is in no position to dictate so much terms to the Party. With the exodus of key figures from NNPP to APC in Kano, the APC’s structure in Kano is now in better stead to challenge the NNPP in 2027.

“The APC is therefore not so desperate for a Kwankwaso in Kano, but would be glad to welcome him into the Party. He still remains an asset.

“But one thing is sure: the APC cannot throw its entire structure in Kano under the bus for a Kwankwaso, especially with the Governor parting ways with him.

“However, the attraction of the APC for him is that the APC still has the national spread and structures to retain power in 2031. So, an APC option for Kwankwaso will also mean a suspension of his Presidential ambition till 2031.

“The 2027 Labour Party option for Kwankwaso is narrower because he simply cannot and will not run as Vice-Presidential candidate to Peter Obi. Take that to the bank.

“His own people will not even support him to give a likely fresh 8 years to the South (forget all the noise of ‘I will serve just one term).”

He maintained that from the scenarios painted, “Kwankwaso is in a very difficult political crossroads,” adding that “the decision he makes now may retire him permanently from politics or revive his Presidential ambition”.