Jonathan: To run or not to run?

As we move towards the 2027 election season, the name of former President Goodluck Jonathan has featured prominently in the political discourse as a possible candidate for the election. Following the belated zoning of its presidential candidate to the South, some politicians in the North are reportedly rooting for Jonathan’s return to Aso Rock based on the fact that he is constitutionally limited to do only one term in office.

His supporters believe that since Jonathan had spent one term and the remaining part of the Yar’Adua tenure, his one term in office is guaranteed to enable power return to the North in keeping with the North/South power rotation principle. Even at that some people have said that Jonathan is constitutionally barred to contest the 2027 election. Others said he is qualified. All of them cited some court judgements to back their claims.

In keeping with the rotation principle too, the former Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, has promised that he will only do one term. Obi further argued that four years is enough for a committed leader to achieve much. He listed world leaders who achieved much in office in one term. Global figures Obi listed who spent one term in office, whether by choice or accident, included Abraham Lincoln, John F. Kennedy and Nelson Mandela. Obi was quoted as saying that great leadership is not measured by the number of years in office, but the quality of service. “Mandela served one term and walked away. That was leadership. Power must serve the people, not the self,” Obi said.

Obi’s one term solemn promise has attracted criticisms from many Nigerians, especially his political opponents. They not only doubted Obi’s sincerity, they also dismissed his promise. Obi’s one term harshest criticism came from Anambra State governor, Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo. Apart from saying that the one term proposal was unrealistic, Soludo called for psychological evaluation of those promising to do one term in office, in apparent reference to his political opponents in the Anambra November gubernatorial election. Many people believe that the attack was on Peter Obi. Consequently, Obi dismissed Soludo’s reservations on the one term proposal and further reinforced his promise by saying that “I maintain without equivocation: if elected, I will not spend a day longer than four years in office.” However, some Nigerians believe that Obi as a man of integrity will not fail in his one term promise. They say that Obi is a man of his words. He is not the usual Nigerian politician. Obi is different. He tells the truth.

Former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi has also promised to do one term in office if elected. Former presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar has promised to do one term in office. Some Nigerians do not believe them. Former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai has dismissed the one term promise by some politicians saying nobody will believe them. Speaking from hindsight, El-Rufai said one term is not enough for a president to make an impact.

As far as 2027 is concerned, only the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has unanimously agreed on its presidential candidate, President Bola Tinubu. Although it says the contest will be open, nobody will challenge the president. He will be given the right of first refusal. The withering PDP is jostling between Obi and Jonathan. Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde, is said to be interested in the plum job as well. He is not seen as a serious contender. His influence is not beyond the South-West region.

The ADC has not narrowed its choice, though some people are giving it to Atiku Abubakar. But it is not yet certain who will fly the flag of ADC in 2027 election. The ADC coalition will also contend with Atiku, Obi, Amaechi and any other interested member. The problem with the opposition as we prepare for the 2027 election season is who will fly the party’s flag among the major contenders, Atiku, Obi and Amaechi. Will they speak with one voice? Will they rally behind one candidate? Obi and Amaechi have told their supporters that they will contest the 2027 election and that their names will be on the ballot. This is not surprising. Nigeria has so many political parties they can choose from. Many parties will be willing to yield their platforms to them. Despite the internal crisis in the Labour Party, it is still there for Obi. Atiku may not be considered in the PDP if its recent overdue zoning of the 2027 presidential contest to the South is anything to go by.

So going by the power rotation arrangement between the North and South which commenced in 1999, the 2027 contest will be largely among Southern candidates. Arising from this premise, the contest will be between President Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi, Goodluck Jonathan and Rotimi Amaechi. May be a few other candidates may crop up later because 2027 is both near and far. It is ironical that the once rejected Goodluck Jonathan is now being wooed to return to Aso Rock on a golden platter. It is like the rejected stone will ultimately become the cornerstone.

But the major worry in all the plans to bring Jonathan to Aso Rock is that the man concerned has kept mute. His studied silence is deafening. He has never said he will run or he will not run, leaving many people guessing. Some commentators have advised Jonathan to flee from the 2027 politics. Some are cheering him to give it a try. Perhaps Jonathan needs hearing from the revered English bard, William Shakespeare before baring his mind on this contentious issue of the moment. In Hamlet, William Shakespeare wrote: “To be nor not to be, that is the question: Whether ‘tis nobler in mind to suffer/The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,/Or take arms against a sea of troubles/And by opposing end them?”  Will Jonathan take this political gamble or let it go?

Although some people close to the former president have vowed with their full strength that Jonathan will not contest the 2027 election no matter the prodding and pushing around by politicians from certain part of the country who believe that it will take a Jonathan to defeat Asiwaju. I don’t really understand why some people believe that putting Jonathan’s name on the ballot will easily translate to victory. Electoral victory is not as easy as that. Some have argued that their rooting for Jonathan is not altruistic. It is based on fear of the unknown concerning term limits. In spite of their permutations, the 2027 election will be different in so many ways. It is not about quick fixes or imposition of candidates on the people. It is about candidates selling themselves to the electorate.

Although two plus two is not always four in politics as it is in real life. In Nigerian politics, things are not as real as they appear. It is like the more you look, the less you see. Any miracle can happen in a twinkle of an eye. Based on the foregoing, I will neither tell Jonathan to run nor not to run. The decision is his and his alone. He should be willing to reveal his stand. Perhaps he is busy studying the situation before disclosing his stand.