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From Fred Itua, Abuja
Former President Goodluck Jonathan’s much-anticipated return to presidential politics has run into a legal obstacle as a pending Federal High Court judgment on his constitutional eligibility now stands between him and a formal declaration of intent to contest the 2027 presidential election.
The former president and his allies, who have quietly been building the scaffolding of a comeback bid, are holding their breath as the court prepares to rule on one of the most consequential eligibility questions in recent Nigerian political history. Until the judgment is delivered, all other preparations remain suspended in careful, deliberate silence.
At the heart of the matter is a suit challenging Jonathan’s constitutional right to contest the presidency, arising from the contentious question of whether his completion of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s term between 2010 and 2011, followed by his election to a single term of his own, disqualifies him from seeking a fresh mandate under Nigeria’s constitutional provisions on term limitation.
Jonathan and his backers argue that having served only one full elected term, he remains constitutionally entitled to contest. A source close to the former president, who was part of a group that quietly purchased a presidential Expression of Interest Form from the Aminu Turaki faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was unambiguous about the stakes involved. “If the judgment goes in his favour, he will declare. If it does not, the ambition will be abandoned,” the source told Daily Sun.
The development adds a dramatic new dimension to an already volatile political season. Nigeria’s opposition space is currently in a state of considerable flux, with the PDP struggling to consolidate a credible platform and Peter Obi continuing to position himself as the preferred choice of a disenchanted urban electorate under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Particularly revealing is the account of a recent meeting between Jonathan and Obi, during which the latter reportedly left having concluded that the former president was not actively pursuing a presidential bid. That conclusion, according to the source, was premature.
“Obi made the wrong reading of the situation,” the source said pointedly, suggesting that the meeting was more exploratory than conclusive and that Jonathan’s intentions remain far more alive than Obi may have appreciated.
Yet, the picture that emerges from within Jonathan’s camp is one of a man surrounded by significant internal contradictions and a growing wall of opposition from those whose support his campaign would most need.
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His wife, Lady Patience Jonathan, has distanced herself entirely from any presidential project, having aligned herself closely with the political circle of President Bola Tinubu’s wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu.
Beyond the domestic front, Jonathan is also reported to lack the backing of three of the most powerful political figures from his own South South base. Nyesom Wike, the Federal Capital Territory Minister, whose influence over PDP structures remains formidable, is not supporting the project. Neither is former Bayelsa State Governor, Seriake Dickson, whose backing would be considered essential for any Jonathan presidential campaign rooted in Ijaw political solidarity.
Several former close aides who served prominently during the Jonathan presidency are equally reported to be absent from the emerging coalition, a development that speaks volumes about the reservations held by those who know him best.
What Jonathan does appear to have, according to the source, is a significant bloc of Northern voices, particularly from the North West, who have been pressing his candidacy with considerable energy and have reportedly assured him of massive regional support should he declare.
It is this Northern encouragement, sources say, that has kept the former president’s presidential flame alive despite the reservations and outright opposition gathering closer to home.
The irony of a former Southern president whose most enthusiastic backers are in the North, while key figures from his own geopolitical base remain conspicuously absent, will not be lost on political analysts watching the situation with growing interest.
The Jonathan eligibility question is, therefore, not merely a legal technicality to be resolved in a courtroom. It sits at the intersection of constitutional interpretation, political strategy and opposition arithmetic, and its resolution will have consequences far beyond the former president’s personal ambitions.
A favourable ruling would immediately reconfigure calculations across parties, compelling the PDP leadership, rival aspirants and coalition builders alike to contend with the re-entry of a former president whose name still commands genuine national attention.
An unfavourable ruling, on the other hand, would extinguish the project entirely and return Nigeria’s crowded opposition space to the familiar contest between Obi, Atiku Abubakar and whoever else emerges from the ongoing realignments. Either way, the court’s decision is one of the most politically consequential judgments Nigeria will see in the months ahead.
