Inflation eased to 15.1% in January as food prices dropped –NBS

From Isaac Anumihe, Abuja

Nigeria’s inflation rate eased slightly in January 2026, falling to 15.10% from 15.15% in December 2025, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

While the tiny drop of just 0.05 percentage points seems small, it signals a continued slowdown in price pressures at the start of the year, following months of gradual relief for consumers.

Looking at the year-on-year numbers, the improvement is much clearer. Inflation was 27.61% in January 2025, meaning the current figure is down 12.51 percentage points compared to the same period last year. On a month-to-month basis, prices actually fell in January, with inflation showing a –2.88% contraction, compared to a 0.54% increase in December 2025. This shows that, on average, the cost of goods and services dropped slightly from the previous month.

Despite these short-term gains, broader inflationary pressures remain high. The twelve-month average inflation rate, which tracks price changes over the past year, stood at 21.97% in January 2026, up from 17.59% a year earlier. This suggests that while monthly price changes provide temporary relief, the overall cost of living is still significant for households.

A key factor in the slowdown was a sharp drop in food inflation, which has the biggest impact on Nigerian households. Food inflation fell to 8.89% year-on-year, down from 29.63% in January 2025. Month-on-month, food prices fell 6.02%, compared to –0.36% in December, representing one of the biggest monthly declines in recent years.

The NBS attributed the fall to lower average prices for several staple foods, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas. The twelve-month average for food inflation also eased to 20.29%, down from 38.47% in January 2025, highlighting a year-long trend of easing food price pressures.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also showed improvement. Year-on-year, core inflation dropped to 17.72%, down from 25.27% a year earlier. Month-on-month, core inflation fell 1.69%, compared to a 0.58% rise in December. This suggests that prices of non-food items like clothing, household goods, and services are rising more slowly, providing additional relief to consumers. The twelve-month average for core inflation also fell to 22.84%, from 27.24% in January 2025.

Regionally, inflation trends mirrored the national pattern. Urban inflation fell to 15.36% year-on-year, down from 29.45% in January 2025, while rural inflation dropped to 14.44% from 25.04%. Month-on-month, urban prices fell 2.72%, while rural prices decreased 3.29%, reflecting deeper price relief in rural areas. However, the twelve-month average inflation remains high at 22.30% in urban areas and 21.03% in rural communities, showing that long-term price pressures persist despite monthly relief.

January’s figures defied many analysts’ expectations. Most had projected headline inflation to remain broadly flat or edge higher, within the 15.15%–16.25% range, due to post-holiday adjustments, fuel costs, and imported goods.

The actual outcome, a slight decline, gives an early signal for first-quarter monetary policy decisions and suggests that recent measures to ease food and non-food prices may be having an effect.

In conclusion, the NBS report shows a welcome easing of prices, especially for staples that directly affect Nigerian households. While monthly declines provide some relief, the overall picture remains challenging, with twelve-month averages still high. Continued monitoring of food prices and core inflation will be essential to ensure that this temporary relief translates into lasting improvements in the cost of living.