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AS Nigerians, and indeed, the whole world await the final outcome of last Saturday’s Presidential poll, fittingly considered the most consequential presidential election in Nigeria, tension is rising to fever pitch. Uncertainty and confusions have gripped the citizens. It is not for nothing. The turnout of voters was, as expected, high. But, what happened in many parts of the country has cast a huge blanket of suspicion on the integrity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). To whom much is given, shouldn’t much be expected? Nothing that INEC asked for that the Buhari government didn’t grant to it. The Chairman of the Commission, Prof Mahmood Yakubu literally promised the ‘moon’, but in the end, he delivered the ‘cheese’. It was an abysmal failure that is excusable.
What happened at various voting locations in the country last Saturday, speaks volumes of the lack of sincerity of purpose and unflinching commitment of the umpire and some of its personnel charged with overseeing the conduct of the elections. For instance, what happened at a secondary school in Lugbe, Abuja, was the most unconscionable election heist never seen in decades. It was a farce and a façade. It was the discovery by anxious voters, of INEC and some security officials, holed up in the school building thumbprinting ballot papers. They paid the price as angry voters dragged them out, and unleashed mayhem to them. It was an ugly spectacle that was seen in some polling stations across the country. Lagos and Rivers states will go down in this election where thugs attacked Labour Party supporters.
I have had cause to say in this column two weeks ago that Nigerians are not aberrational, defeatist, ungenerous or lacking in any of the qualities of citizenship, patriotism or humanity on which they have prided themselves. In fact, their hopes are modest, their fears are rational. However, today, we have a nation whose citizens have become disillusioned and completely cynical about the performance of its political leaders and institutions such as INEC. And those attitudes, the disillusionment and suspicion about the performance of our government and key institutions like INEC, are well-founded. Truth is, Nigerians no longer trust INEC anymore. The failure of Mahmood-led INEC has resulted in doubts about our collective future and the survival of democracy in Nigeria.
That was why, two weeks ago in this column, I stated, matter-of-fact, that, “I smell trouble in the Presidential poll”. My fear was borne out of my suspicion that, contrary to INEC’s assurances, it might not deliver transparent polls acceptable to a vast majority of our people. It was also based on the desperation of some of the presidential candidates and their diehard supporters who see election as a “do-or-die” affairs. For them, nothing but a win at all cost, will satisfy their appetite for power. This has led to citizens’ erosion of confidence in the future. And now, it’s threatening to destroy both the social and and political fabric of the country. It’s grim and despairing. You see, these doubts have been accumulating for years. It’s just that it has reached a tipping point now with INEC seen as having bungled the presidential election. It doesn’t matter that INEC has admitted that it failed to perform as expected. In a statement signed by Festus Okoye, the Chairman of the Information and Voter Education, the commission admitted facing challenges of immediate sort in uploading its Results Viewing Portal( IReV). Was this deliberate or a grand plot to compromise the outcome of the elections? Or is the electoral umpire working towards a predetermined outcome? Perhaps time will tell. But, whatever happens in the next few days when the winner of the presidential election would have been announced, INEC should be held accountable. As former President Goodluck Jonathan said in his memoir, “My Transition Hour”, “democracy is not just about fulfilling all righteousness by treating people to the ballot box that you bring out day “. Indeed, democracy is much more than that. It boils down to legitimacy and ensuring that the people have the necessary dividends. Is that what Nigerians got last Saturday? Absolutely No.
That is why, in the words of elder statesman and leader of Afenifere Chief Ayo Adebanjo, “if we miss this opportunity to elect the right person as President, forget about Nigeria”. He has been consistent on this, and his latest admonition came two weeks to the presidential election at the mega campaign rally in Lagos organised by the Labour Party Presidential Council for its candidate, Peter Obi and his running mate, Yusuf Baba-Ahmed. If care is not taken, whoever INEC declares the winner of the presidential poll will grapple with legitimacy issue. It could be trailed by violence of immeasurable proportions. I hope and pray our worst fears are not confirmed.
There is no doubt that Nigeria is in deep and serious trouble. Only good leadership will rescue Nigeria from this deep hole. Many years ago, James Sundquist, an American author and resident scholar at Brookings Institution in his book titled: “SETTING NATIONAL PRIORITIES’, wrote that if people are to take the trouble to vote, they must expect something from the leaders they choose… At a minimum, they want a programme that will address the central problems that concern them, not necessarily one with all the answers, but at least one with a philosophy and approach that give promise of succeeding”. Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party Presidential candidate, more than any other candidate, did set the public agenda for the presidential campaign. He argued -articulatively and emphatically -the need to have a transparent polls, and a new president we all can be proud of. It’s because Nigeria is broken and only a President elected in a free, credible and transparent election, can fix it. Clearly, it appears he has been cheated in the most cruel and disengenous way imaginable .
But, as I said here two weeks ago, the biggest worry of the presidential election is the possible outcome and reaction. That’s where I smell trouble. What, for instance, will happen, if either Bola Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate or Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, is declared winner of the presidential election’? Will an Atiku or Tinubu victory not trigger unrest in the country? Put differently, what, if, per chance, a “sick country is handed over to a sick man”? It’s important at this point for the relevant security agencies to begin to weigh these scenarios and prepare for emergency response to avoid possible violence.
All along, many have expressed palpable fear that the desperation in the APC camp presents a present danger if their candidate loses the election. The atmosphere is tense.Why, for instance, did the APC launch what it calls “the Jagaban Army? Is this a preparation for ‘war’. What’s happening in Lagos and elsewhere, is aberrational. Things are getting out of hand. Anger and frustration are reaching a frightening level. This democracy must not collapse.
But by far, the gravest concern we should worry about is what could happen if the will of the Nigerian electorate is believed to have been scuttled?. That’s exactly the point Mr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, the Director of Publicity and Advocacy of the Northern Elders Forum(NEF) drew our attention to recently. He said the “concerns are deep and genuine”. He noted that the nation is beginning to hear “worrying rumours about the likely consequences of a certain candidate losing the election and the other winning the presidential election. He claims that “an Atiku or Tinubu victory could trigger some unrest in parts of the country”. I share the same worry. With poverty, unemployment, inflation and cost of living at all-time high, the country is sitting on a tinderbox.
