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The 2023 presidential election is unique in different ways. This is the first time that three major political parties are contesting the position of the President and it’s debatable who amongst them will emerge. The 1999 presidential election was between the All Peoples Party (APP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The 2003 was between the PDP and the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP). The 2007 was dominated by the PDP only; 2011 was between PDP and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). 2015 was between the PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC). 
In all the earlier elections, the winner was reasonably predictable before the election day. In 2007 when Obasanjo saw Buhari as the likely strong opponent of his party, he cleverly made a choice of a younger person from the same state of Katsina like Buhari to succeed him. That was the only year Buhari didn’t make up to eight million votes in the presidential election. But 2023 is witnessing the entrance of three major political parties namely the Labour Party led by Peter Obi, the Peoples Democratic Party led by Atiku Abubakar and the All Progressives Congress led by Bola Tinubu.
Intriguingly, Peter Obi joined Labour Party some few weeks before the close of nomination for the post of president. His entrance created an instant connection with the youths who have become tired of the old order. Initially, they were swept aside with a wave of the hand as a media sensation, but surprisingly within a little while, opinion poll after opinion poll started forecasting an Obi Presidency to the chagrin of the other two major political parties. That was when the nation came alive to the possibility of a new order and an election result never witnessed before in history. Some have opined that the possibility of a run off is high as there might not be a clear winner in the first round. This in itself is history as it has not happened before in Nigeria. The possibility of a relatively unknown party sweeping off the two already established political parties is also ruffling not a few feathers. This novel election is giving the status quo some sleepless nights coupled with the recent amendments to the Electoral Act which introduced the BVAS, for a rocket science accreditation formular, which destroys the possibility of impersonators voting in the election. The new Act introduced the electronic transfer of results from the polling units to the central INEC server, thereby, eliminating the evil concoction and manipulation of manually generated and manually collated election results in the collation centres, starting from the ward to the local government, to state and Federal Government, during which time, a lot of water usually passed under the bridge.
This unique presidential election is already posing some ominous signs upon the nation. The first is the security situation. The Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, has publicly admitted that the Armed Forces are under tremendous pressure in this election from some quarters. This security tension is complicated by the statement of intimidation by the APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu. Hear him, “We won’t attach everything to destiny. Go and study the anthropology of it. Political power is not going to be served in a restaurant, it’s not served in a la carte, it’s what we are doing, it’s being determined to do it at all costs. Fight for it, grab it, snatch it and run with it.” This reminds us of the do or die politics of the People’s Democratic Party during the 2007 general elections. The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress was very categorical about his strategy for this election – take it by force.
INEC offices are constantly being burnt especially in those areas where the presidential candidates of the opposition are perceived to be strong. The target of these arsonists are the PVCs which is a requirement to vote in the upcoming election. These PVCs are selectively denied to the people that bear same ancestral names with that of the presidential candidates of the opposition. In Lagos, facts have emerged that people who bear names like Okoro or Uju are not allowed to collect their PVCs or their names skipped during sharing of the PVCs. This is because of the impression created in the minds of these electoral manipulators that the late surge in the registration of voters for the upcoming election was as a result of the late picking of the presidential ticket of the Labour Party by Peter Obi. This is in addition to the corrupt tendencies of some INEC officials, who are cashing in on the situation to demand for bribe before releasing the PVCs to their rightful owners. Some have been asked for N5,000, some N2,000 before their PVCs were given to them. Some people simply pay and collect to avoid being denied their right to vote, but some other ones get frustrated and leave. This amounts to voter suppression. It is instructive to note that the campaign train of the Peoples Democratic Party has come under violent attacks many times in different parts of the country.
INEC has come out to confess that if the attacks continue unabated, they may not be able to cope with them and this may mar the election. Attacks against INEC offices and staff are not the only security threats. The prevalence of bandits, terrorists, kidnappers, armed robbers, ritualists, insurgents all over the country pose an existential threat to the 2023 election because one has to be alive first before he can vote. If fear becomes pervasive in the land, people may simply stay back at home and refuse to step out to vote during the day of the election. About 32 people were recently kidnapped in a train station in Igueben, Edo State, waiting to board the next available train. They are still in the bush while a ransom of N630 million has been demanded. This is coming on the heels of the kidnap of almost 100 passengers from the Abuja – Kaduna bound train during which billions of naira was paid as ransom. The rail transportation was halted nationwide to sort out the security threat. From the current incident, it’s obvious it has not been properly sorted out. When one adds the scare of the unknown gunmen in the Southeast, the thugs and agberos in the Southwest, the killer herdsmen in the North-central, it would have been complete that unless the ruling party ups its game in the area of security, our 2023 election is reasonably under threat.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is, undoubtedly, the institution constitutionally imbued in paragraph 15(a) and (e) of Part 1 of the third schedule to the 1999 Constitution, as amended, with the power to organise, undertake and supervise all elections to the offices of the president and vice president, the governor and deputy governor of a state, and to the membership of the Senate, the House of Representatives and the House of Assembly of each state of the federation; arrange and conduct the registration of persons qualified to vote and prepare, maintain and revise the register of voters for the purpose of any election under this Constitution. In the prosecution of those powers, INEC is constitutionally reportable or accountable to no one.
However, those powers are largely ceremonial and not actual. The first limitation on the powers of INEC is the legal process of the method of appointment of its members. The Independent National Electoral Commission which comprises a chairman and 12 other members known as National Electoral Commissioners are appointed by the president subject to confirmation by the Senate, so also are the 37 Resident Electoral Commissioners who undertake the functions of INEC in all the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory. The major qualification of these members is that they should be non-partisan and persons of unquestionable integrity. Presidents from 1999 have been guilty of the desecration of this provision by appointing persons who are card-carrying members of political parties and who are persons of questionable character. These appointees of the ruling party in INEC which incidentally has the majority of the members of the National Assembly, in most cases, pander to the will of their appointors and manipulate election results to favour the ruling party, A president had openly boasted that he had the power to influence INEC decisions through a mere phone call. No doubt that even in the latest appointments of the INEC Federal Commissioners, there are still allegations that some of them are card-carrying members of the ruling party. This is an ominous sign for our 2023 election.
INEC also depends on the executive arm of government to make funds available to enable it carry out its constitutional duties. The only thing a sitting government needs do to frustrate INEC from not fulfilling its mandate is to starve it of funds, afterall who that pays the piper dictates the tune. A court of law recently chided INEC for stopping the registration of voters about 90 days before its constitutional limit was attained for no legitimate reason. Unfortunately, the court couldn’t order INEC to complete the registration in arrears because the constitutional window has been closed. All those not registered have now been officially and illegally disenfranchised with no remedy in sight.
This is another ominous sign for 2023 election as those disenfranchised citizens have the tendency to create serious trouble for the country if their preferred candidate fails to win and they feel their votes would have made a difference. We must put the blame of this failure squarely on the doorstep of INEC because there is no evidence that INEC ever made a budget for its programmes and was rejected by the ruling party.
We must, therefore, urge INEC to release the remaining PVCs in their custody and ensure that those burnt by the arsonists are replaced and reprinted within the time available. They must embark on publicity to encourage the registered persons to go and collect their own. Some of them may not even be aware that their PVCs are ready. INEC must rein in their corrupt officials who demand bribe before releasing the PVCs of Nigerians. These officials are the true enemies of democracy. The security agencies should be patriotic and loyal to their fatherland not to any political party and ensure free and fair election. However, we must note that tackling insecurity is the duty of everyone and we should all assist the security agencies with relevant information to assist them carry out their onerous task of securing the 2023 election. None of these measures can replace the eternal vigilance of Nigerians to defend their votes come 2023. If you see something, say something.
