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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its economic growth forecast for Nigeria, projecting a growth rate of 3.1 percent for 2024, down from the previously anticipated 3.3 percent announced in April.
This downgrade of 0.2 percentage points reflects a cautious outlook influenced by lower-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter of the year.
In its July 2024 World Economic Outlook, the IMF cited the subdued performance in early 2024 as a primary reason for revising Nigeria’s growth forecast downward. Despite this adjustment, the IMF maintained a steady forecast of 3.0 percent growth for Nigeria in 2025, indicating cautious optimism for recovery in the following year.
The IMF also revised its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa downward to 3.7 percent for 2024, from the previous projection of 3.8 percent in April. This adjustment largely stems from Nigeria’s economic performance, highlighting its significant influence on the broader regional outlook.
Looking ahead, the IMF anticipates a slight improvement in economic growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2025, with a revised forecast of 4.1 percent, up from the earlier projection of 4.0 percent. This adjustment reflects expectations of recovery and improved economic conditions across the region as global uncertainties gradually subside.
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On a global scale, the IMF maintained its forecast for stable economic growth, projecting a growth rate of 3.2 percent for 2024 and 3.3 percent for 2025. This consistency underscores the expectation of balanced economic conditions globally, with growth rates converging among advanced economies over the coming quarters.
Specifically, in the United States, the IMF revised its growth projection downward to 2.6 percent for 2024, reflecting a slower-than-anticipated start to the year. Looking towards 2025, growth is expected to further moderate to 1.9 percent as fiscal policies tighten and consumption dynamics adjust.
Regarding inflation, the IMF anticipates a continued decline globally, particularly in advanced economies, although the pace of disinflation is expected to slow in 2024 and 2025. This adjustment is influenced by persistent inflation in service prices and higher commodity prices, despite falling energy costs.
Overall, the IMF’s latest economic forecasts highlight nuanced adjustments reflecting evolving global economic conditions, with cautious optimism for recovery and stability in the medium term across different regions and sectors.
