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The decision by the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to field a fellow Muslim as his running mate for the 2023 presidential election, was an action taken in fulfillment of his long-held ambition, which began in 2005, to install an all-Muslim leadership, ignoring the religious diversity of the country.
Tinubu started out on this journey by nursing the ambition to be running mate to Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, or General Aliyu Gusau in the 2007 presidential election, which was won by Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). He also held meetings with General Ibrahim Babangida to see the possibility of becoming a running mate to General Gusau, should he become PDP’s candidate for the election. His plans were well laid out, but he failed.
Details of Tinubu’s plan were captured in a meeting he had with then Consul-General of the United States of America in Nigeria, Brian L. Browne, on August 27, 2005. The document containing details of the discussion is titled “Lagos State Governor Discusses His Options for 2007.” The document is also part of a cache of documents published by Wikileaks marked Public Library of US Diplomacy and classified on September 14, 2005.
The summary of the document reads: “In an August 27 conversation with the Consul-General, Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu stressed he was hedging his bets and political ambition on the 2007 election by no longer placing sole reliance on riding the coattails of Vice President Atiku. Tinubu sensed Atiku’s stock was declining and could descend further. He thinks Atiku will leave the PDP and thus weaken the party.
Tinubu vaticinated that National Security Advisor Aliyu Gusau, a Babangida loyalist who has amassed sensitive, damning information on many of the players, could emerge as a key broker and perhaps dark horse in the PDP presidential scramble. Consequently, Tinubu has held meetings with 2003 presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari and former head of state, Babangida. While Tinubu wants to be somebody’s vice presidential candidate, he also eyes a senatorial seat as a possible alternative. Tinubu no longer sees Atiku as a likely winner of the PDP presidential nomination.
“On Tinubu’s chances with Atiku, the document read: “During a relaxed August 27 evening meeting with Consul-General, Lagos State Governor Tinubu provided his analysis of the current electoral topography, particularly in the rival People’s Democratic Party.
“Although now in different political parties, Governor Tinubu and Vice President Atiku have a close relationship dating back to the early 90s; their friendship is one that defies party lines and perhaps political logic. Whispered in the backrooms as well as aired in the public domain by less discreet tongues has been the possibility of an Atiku-Tinubu ticket under the banner of a new ‘progressive’ party.
“In the past, Tinubu had talked with verve to us about this option. At this last meeting, however, he was more cautious. Tinubu was noticeably less sanguine about Atiku’s presidential chances.”
On his options with Buhari, the diplomatic document read: “In light of Atiku’s mire, Tinubu has begun to hedge by holding discussions with Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples’ Party (ANPP) about the VP slot on a Buhari ticket. Buhari finished second to Obasanjo in the highly controversial 2003 elections. What was not controverted by most objective analysts was that Buhari won a sizable majority of the northern vote. If he is to run again, he needs a southern VP candidate who can command a large voting bloc. Assuming he continued to control the North in 2007, all Buhari needs to take the election is to win one of the three southern zones, Tinubu calculated. Tinubu said his command of the AD in the southwest and his close connections with four of the six South-South governors (Ibori of Delta, Igbinedion of Edo, Attah of Akwa Ibom, and Alamieyeseigha of Bayelsa) makes him an attractive partner to Buhari. The drawback to teaming either with Atiku or Buhari is that this would produce an all-Muslim presidential ticket.”
The document noted that Tinubu did not see anything wrong with a same-faith ticket. This is an indication that he was deliberate in his decision to ignore Nigeria’s religious diversity in the pursuit of his ambition even when the consul-general pointed that out to him. his assessment of the political situation at the time was that he could work out an alliance that would bring him into the circle where he would easily become running mate to any of the trio of Buhari, Atiku and Gusau, in the event that Babangida declines to contest and throws his weight behind Gusau.
It, therefore, suggests that Tinubu’s decision to pick former Borno State governor, Kashim Shettima, as running mate was not an issue of competence but one that deliberately speaks to his attitude towards Nigeria’s religious diversity. That this idea was nurtured from 2005 till it blossomed in 2014 when some like minds in the APC fought to stop it now points to a fixation that is injurious to national unity.
Made to realize that the same-faith ticket may not fly in 2007, Tinubu disclosed to the consul-general his ‘Plan B’ – to instead go to the Senate and be rewarded with the Presidency of the Senate for backing either Atiku or Buhari to win the 2007 election. He believed that he would easily win a Senate seat from Lagos and, thereafter, bargain to become the Senate President.
Here is how the diplomatic communication captured it: “While Tinubu did not see this (Muslim-Muslim ticket) as a big problem with Atiku (due to Atiku’s noted religious laxity and his pro-Western outlook), it would be a heavy cross to bear for a Buhari-Tinubu ticket because of the perception in many southern Nigerian minds that Buhari is a religious zealot. Because of this factor, Tinubu asserted he had begun to shift his focus, which had been exclusively on the vice presidency, to see the Senate as a nice place to land upon exiting the governor’s mansion.
“Tinubu said he is seriously considering the Senate in 2007. This would be an easier campaign and, given his political hold in Lagos, one more likely achieved than a run at becoming the nation’s number two citizen. If he selected this route, he would support either Buhari or Atiku with the understanding that, if either won, Tinubu would be appointed Senate President, the number three citizen in Nigeria. Moreover, he also believes he could influence the selection of either Atiku’s or Buhari’s running mate.”
He failed to achieve his dream to be running mate in 2007. He also failed to achieve his dream of a Senate seat and the presidency of the Senate. But he succeeded in imposing a running mate on Buhari in 2014. Will he achieve his “life ambition” to rule Nigeria with a Muslim-Muslim ticket?
