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Bimbola Oyesola
World merchandise trade is expected to remain below trend into the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO’)s latest Goods Trade Barometer.
The indicator’s reading of 96.6 marks a slight improvement compared to the 95.7 registered in August, but it remains well below the index’s baseline value of 100, signalling below average growth.
The Goods Trade Barometer provides “real time” information on the trajectory of world merchandise trade volumes relative to recent trends. Some components of the barometer have stabilised since the last reading in August, while others remain on a downward trajectory reflecting heightened trade tensions and rising tariffs in key sectors.
Indices for export orders (97.5), automotive products (99.8), and container shipping (100.8) have firmed up into on-trend territory. However, the indices for international air freight (93.0), electronic components (88.2), and raw materials (91.4) have all deteriorated further below trend. Electronic components trade was weakest of all, possibly reflecting recent tariff hikes affecting the sector.
