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Economic analysts have attributed Nigeria’s $3.73 billion balance of payments (BOP) surplus in the first quarter of 2025 to the weakening of the naira and the increased domestic production of refined petroleum products, particularly from the Dangote Refinery.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country posted a current account surplus of $3.73 billion in Q1 2025, slightly below the $3.80 billion recorded in Q4 2024, but marginally higher than the $3.69 billion recorded in the same period in 2024.
This latest figure follows a much larger BOP surplus of $6.83 billion reported in 2024, reflecting a trend of external sector improvement.
The CBN data also showed that Nigeria’s goods account balance rose to $4.16 billion in Q1 2025, up from $2.62 billion in the previous quarter, driven largely by improved trade performance. Non-oil exports surged by 30.39% to $2.66 billion, while gas exports increased from $2.10 billion to $2.66 billion. At the same time, non-oil imports declined from $7.37 billion to $6.77 billion, contributing to a healthier trade position. The secondary income account also posted a robust surplus of $5.29 billion.
Total exports grew by 9.79% to reach $13.91 billion during the quarter, while imports declined to $9.75 billion from $10.05 billion in Q4 2024. The drop in import figures was largely attributed to reduced imports of petroleum products and other non-oil goods.
On the financial account, the CBN reported a balance of $7.58 billion, slightly down from $7.82 billion in the previous quarter. This was largely due to reduced portfolio and other investment liabilities, as non-residents reversed investments in CBN bills and the country faced significant external debt service payments. A drop in loan liabilities from other depository corporations also contributed to the decline.
Commenting on the development, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), pointed to the depreciation of the naira and the Dangote Refinery as key factors.
“Our largest imports in recent times have been non-oil. Import is dropping because of exchange rate depreciation. Depreciation of the naira makes import more difficult for importers,” Yusuf said.
“With the full commencement of the Dangote Refinery, a lot of fuel importers are beginning to look inwards. For me, the decrease between the last quarter and this in the balance of payments surplus is quite marginal,” he added.
Dr. Adam Abudu, of the Society for Peacebuilding and Economic Advancement, echoed similar views and urged the federal government to back local investors more consistently.
“We can say one thing and mean another thing. If you have a policy to encourage domestic investors, you should be consistent with it. That’s how it should be,” he said.
“We have Dangote, who built a refinery. This refinery is currently producing large quantities of oil for both domestic consumption and export. Government needs more Dangote Refineries to have a continuous balance of payments surplus,” he added.
Dr. Abudu also praised the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
“The ongoing reforms are also showing results, given the fact that we have recorded two consecutive quarters of balance of payments surplus. We have to sustain the momentum for the next few quarters too,” he said.
Despite the improved BOP figures, Nigeria’s external reserves fell to $37.82 billion at the end of March 2025, down from $40.19 billion at the end of December 2024. Additionally, net errors and omissions—which serve as a proxy for untracked financial flows—stood at $3.85 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $4.02 billion in the previous quarter.
A balance of payments surplus essentially means Nigeria exported more than it imported. Complementing the CBN’s data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N5.17 trillion in Q1 2025, up 51.07% from N3.42 trillion in the previous quarter. The country’s total trade volume for the period reached N36.02 trillion, a 6.19% year-on-year increase.
One of the most notable shifts was in Nigeria’s petrol import bill, which dropped significantly to N1.76 trillion in Q1 2025 from N3.81 trillion in the same period in 2024. This sharp decline has been largely credited to the increasing output from the Dangote Refinery, which continues to ramp up its operations and supply the domestic market.
