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The Federal Government has projected that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will rise to 10.34 per cent by 2030 under the National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030.
Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, disclosed this at the 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited on Thursday.
The webinar, with the theme, “Achieving Investment-Grade Rating By 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria,” focused on the role of credit ratings in attracting investment, reducing the cost of funds and supporting economic transformation.
Uzoka-Anite said the government was targeting an average real GDP growth rate of 7.79 per cent over the plan period, with growth expected to rise from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent by 2030.
She said the target was part of the Federal Government’s plan to transform Nigeria into a diversified, resilient and globally competitive $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The minister also projected that public debt would decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030.
Similarly, the debt service-to-revenue ratio is expected to fall from 62.93 per cent in 2025 to 21.01 per cent by 2030.
Uzoka-Anite said government revenue was projected to increase from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030, while capital expenditure is expected to rise from 36.03 per cent of total government expenditure to 57.43 per cent within the period.
She said the government’s projections were anchored on stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, improved fiscal management, debt sustainability, economic diversification and institutional reforms.
According to her, the government’s roadmap to investment-grade status rests on four pillars: fiscal health and domestic revenue mobilisation; debt sustainability and liability management; economic diversification, investment and productivity; and institutional strengthening and policy credibility.
She said the investment-grade ambition should be regarded as an outcome of stronger economic fundamentals rather than an end in itself.
Uzoka-Anite further said the private sector was expected to account for about 72 per cent of cumulative investment under the NDP, while gross capital formation is targeted at 40 per cent of GDP by 2030.
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She said recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange reforms, public financial management measures and tax reforms, were aimed at strengthening the economy and improving Nigeria’s fiscal position.
According to her, “Under the NDP 2026-2030, real GDP growth is projected to increase from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent in 2030, averaging 7.79 per cent over the Plan period.
“Public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030, while the Federal Government debt-service-to-revenue ratio is projected to fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent over the same period.”
Speaking earlier, Founder of DataPro Limited, Mr Abimbola Adeseyoju, said credit ratings had evolved from being a passive measure of risk to becoming a catalyst for economic transformation.
Adeseyoju said sovereign credit ratings influence investment flows, the cost of funds and the capacity of countries to finance infrastructure, industrialisation and sustainable economic growth.
He identified structural reforms and fiscal sustainability, capital market depth and transparency, as well as the need to domesticate the African narrative in global ratings, as key factors that could help African countries achieve investment-grade status.
He argued that global rating methodologies should be objective and transparent while taking into account the realities and growth potential of African economies.
Adeseyoju said DataPro was committed to providing credible and actionable market intelligence that would help bridge the gap between capital seekers and investors.
He added that achieving investment-grade status would require deliberate policy execution, sound market infrastructure and stronger cross-border collaboration.
“Credit rating is no longer a passive measure of risk; it is a catalyst for economic transformation. Sovereign ratings influence investment flows, cost of funds, and the ability to fund infrastructure, industrialisation and sustainable growth,” he said.
