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By Uche Usim
Former President Muhammadu Buhari’s return to power in 2015 as a democratic leader, after three failed attempts, marked a chapter that will be studied for years to come.
Expectations were high. Many thought he was going to hit the ground running and hurriedly offload the transformational programmes he had in store for Nigerians.
But when it took him six months to assemble his cabinet in an economy that was already slowing down and manifesting various economic malaises, hopes waned and tongues wagged. The delay created room for the vessel he captained to drift as if there was no commander.
Growth dropped to 2.35 per cent in the second quarter of 2015, compared to 6.54 per cent during the same period in 2014. At the same time, global oil prices crashed, falling to around $40 per barrel by December 2015. To make matters worse, militants in the Niger Delta started bombing oil pipelines, which cut off over 600,000 barrels of daily oil production. This created a double blow-lesser revenue and declining export.
The Jonathan administration had prepared a transition budget that projected N633 billion for capital spending, far lower than the N1.55 trillion spent in 2014. That amount was already too small to boost the economy, but Buhari’s delay in coupling his cabinet only worsened a bad case.
Living cost
Between May 2015 and May 2023, Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in prices, jumped by a staggering 216 per cent. Inflation was just 8.7 per cent when Buhari took office in 2015. By the time he left in 2023, it had soared to 22.2 per cent, the highest in 17 years.
For context, it meant that if you earned N300,000 a month in 2015, you would need over N900,000 in 2023 to buy the same things. Without that increase in income, you would have to cut back on what you buy by about two-thirds, meaning less food, fewer school fees paid, and possibly skipping medical care, just to survive. Many families were forced to make tough choices between education, health and daily meals.
Naira value
In May 2015, the official exchange rate was N196 to $1. The black market rate was around N200, just a N4 difference. By May 2023, the official rate had worsened to N461 per dollar, while the black market rate ballooned to N760. That’s a 65 per cent gap between the two markets and a huge drop in the naira’s value.
Imagine a Nigerian family whose child was studying abroad. A $10,000 school fee that cost them N2 million in 2015 would now cost N7.6 million. For a business importing machinery or raw materials worth $100,000, the bill would have climbed from N20 million to N76 million in eight years. That massive cost increase translated into higher prices for goods and services, what economists call “imported inflation.”
And then came the problem of access. Many people could not get dollars at the official rate, so they had no choice but to go to the black market. This created opportunities for abuse, some businesses got dollars cheaply and resold at much higher rates. Even worse, some companies in the same industry got different rates depending on their connections. The result? Uneven playing fields, unfair competition and some businesses were pushed out entirely.
To be fair, a weaker naira could have made Nigerian products cheaper and more attractive to buyers in other countries, in theory. But that would only work if the country had enough quality goods to export in the first place.
Soaring debt, rising prices, slow growth
According to an analysis by BudgIT, between 2016 and 2022, the federal government under President Muhammadu Buhari earned about N26.7 trillion but spent more than twice that, N60.6 trillion. It left a gaping hole of N34 trillion, which was mostly covered by borrowing.
Heaps of debt
When Buhari took office in 2015, Nigeria’s domestic debt was N8.8 trillion. By the time he left in mid-2023, it had climbed to N44.9 trillion. External debt (borrowed from foreign lenders) also jumped from $7.35 billion to $37.2 billion. This does not include N25 trillion in special loans from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which acted like an emergency ATM for the government. In total, Buhari took Nigeria’s public debt from around N42 trillion to a dizzying N77 trillion.
As a result, the cost of just repaying the debt (not reducing it) jumped from N1 trillion in 2015 to over N5 trillion by 2022. Nigeria was using nearly all of its income, 96 per cent, just to service debt. That’s like a person earning N100,000 a month and using N96,000 to repay loans, with only N4,000 left to live on.
Cash printing and rising prices
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On Buhari’s watch, the Central Bank somewhat derailed. Instead of focusing on controlling inflation, it got heavily involved in government spending. It pumped a lot of cash into the system, growing the money supply from N18 trillion in 2015 to N55 trillion by 2023. Experts said that this flood of cash, along with other factors, led to rising prices.
The CBN tried to fight inflation by raising interest rates from 12.5 per cent to 18 per cent, but it did not help much. Inflation still shot up to 22.5 per cent by April 2023 and food prices were even worse, up by 24 per cent. Despite spending over a trillion naira on farming support programmes like the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, food inflation remained high and many farmers reportedly failed to repay their loans due to a legion of factors, including ravaging insecurity, flooding, corruption and others.
Fewer jobs, unstable economy
In Buhari’s eight years, unemployment rose sharply, from 10.4 per cent in 2015 to 33.4 per cent in 2020. Businesses struggled to survive due to inconsistent exchange rate policies, which made it hard to plan or access foreign exchange. The difference between official and black-market dollar rates created room for corruption and unfair advantage.
The government also failed to remove fuel subsidies, even after promising to do so. Over N10 trillion was spent keeping petrol prices artificially low. Despite high oil prices in 2022 (up to $114 per barrel), Nigeria couldn’t take full advantage, as oil production dropped below 1 million barrels per day, one of the lowest in years.
As a result, non-oil revenues had to carry more of the burden, rising from 44.6 per cent of government income in 2015 to 59.4 per cent in 2022. Yet, government spending remained uncoordinated. Reports show many government agencies spent money without approval, making it harder to manage the economy effectively.
The administration also suffered the COVID-19 pandemic which disrupted the economy in no small way.
What did his administration build?
Buhari’s government was not all doom and gloom as some financial analysts may want to infer.
He invested heavily in infrastructure. Rail projects like Warri-Itakpe, Abuja Light Rail, Lagos-Ibadan and the ongoing Kaduna-Kano and Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano lines were part of his legacy. Major roads, such as the Apapa-Oshodi Expressway and Bodo-Bonny Road, also saw progress. He also launched the Road Tax Credit Scheme and the Petroleum Industry Act, moves that aimed to fix long-standing problems in the oil sector. Airports in Lagos, Abuja, Kano, and Port Harcourt were upgraded. Power sector reforms like the $2 billion Siemens deal were announced, though results are still pending. He also cleared debts owed to oil companies (Joint Venture Cash Calls) and supported laws like the Startup Act and National Collateral Registry to help businesses grow.
Other major spending included security upgrades, such as new aircraft for the Air Force and expanded powers for states to build railways and manage electricity, small steps toward restructuring.
His administration passed the Petroleum Industry Act, a transformational fulcrum being used to gradually reposition the industry.
The people
Despite these big-ticket projects, life did not improve for the average Nigerian. Inflation, poor exchange rates, and slow economic growth meant people’s savings lost value and basic needs became harder to afford. The government spent over N1 trillion on social programmes, yet 133 million Nigerians are still trapped in poverty.
Buhari’s time in office will be remembered for a huge increase in debt, from 18 per cent to 35 per cent of the country’s GDP. Inflation hit 22.4 per cent. Poverty reached record levels. Though he built rail lines and roads, and passed some important reforms, the big picture tells a different story: lots of spending, but not enough meaningful impact on people’s lives.
In his final days, the failed attempt at a currency redesign only worsened an already struggling economy. For all the money spent, there was little to show in terms of lasting improvement in quality of life. Economic growth needs clear vision and discipline, something that many analysts say was missing during Buhari’s time at the helm.
As Nigerians think back on President Buhari’s time in office, one big question stands out: how will today’s leaders fix the problems he left behind and steer the economy in a better direction?
With the way the world’s economy keeps changing, experts say it is very important for the government to share accurate and timely information, like how the country’s economy is growing or shrinking. When investors and businesses get honest updates, they are more likely to invest and plan with confidence.
The current administration has a lot to learn from past mistakes. To grow the economy, leaders must base their plans on real facts and figures and they must be open about how they spend public money.
Many Nigerians still appreciate Buhari’s efforts in trying to improve security and reduce corruption. These lessons should not be wasted. They should guide future leaders to make better choices, build a stronger economy and truly improve the lives of Nigerians.
