Conflict, rising costs could push 34.7m Nigerians into food insecurity –PwC

Nigeria is facing a looming food security crisis in 2026, with as many as 34.7 million people projected to experience acute food insecurity, according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report titled Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth.

The report warns that without urgent and coordinated policy actions, persistent insecurity, rising production costs, and climate shocks will continue to weaken food production, distribution, and access nationwide.

“Conflict, high input costs, and climate shocks are expected to push 34.7 million Nigerians into acute food insecurity in 2026,” PwC stated. The report highlights northern Nigeria as a hotspot, where conflicts have displaced thousands of farmers and disrupted critical agricultural activities such as planting and harvesting. Between January and October 2025 alone, about 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, sharply reducing the agricultural labour force.

Rising input costs are compounding the crisis. The national average price of NPK fertiliser climbed 19.5 per cent in 2025, reaching approximately N52,000 per 50kg bag. “Production costs increased sharply, with maize and soybean production costs up 29.2 per cent and 36.8 per cent,” the report noted. Limited access to finance further restricted input usage, with only 62 per cent of farmers applying agricultural inputs in 2025, down from 81 per cent in 2024.

This led to a 24 per cent drop in input application and an 8 per cent contraction in cultivated land.

Erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells in 2025 also contributed to below-average harvests in several regions, reducing overall food availability and raising the risk of further insecurity in 2026.

PwC’s findings echo warnings from farmers and international organisations. Reports indicate that farmers in North-Central and North-West Nigeria are considering abandoning farming due to rising production costs, insecurity, and massive post-harvest losses. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) similarly projects that around 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season, based on its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.

Food inflation, driven by insecurity, currency pressures, and rising energy and input costs, has already constrained access to essential agricultural inputs, particularly for smallholder farmers. FAO and development partners have repeatedly called for urgent interventions to improve security, enhance climate resilience, and stabilise food supply chains.

PwC stressed that tackling insecurity, lowering input costs, expanding agricultural finance, and strengthening climate adaptation strategies will be critical to preventing the projected food insecurity from escalating into a full-blown humanitarian crisis in 2026.

“Immediate action is required to safeguard food production, protect livelihoods, and ensure millions of Nigerians do not face hunger next year,” the report concluded.