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The postponement of the 2023 Population and Housing Census by President Muhammadu Buhari is a very welcome development. However, the President does not need any commendation for shifting the exercise earlier slated for May 3-7, 2023, to the incoming administration. This is because there was no compelling need in the first place to contemplate a census at this importune time.
Even if Nigerians agree with him on his claim that the NPC had gone far in its plans, it is doubtful if it was really necessary to put people under avoidable stressful conditions for an exercise that was bound to fail.
Truly, Nigeria is due for a census, considering that its last ‘attempt’ was 17 years ago and we all know how critical a census is to national planning and development.
Nigeria made its last ‘attempt’ at census close to the 2016; attempt because what was done was the usual charade dictated by ethnicism that allocated figures to tribes at whim, rather than facts in the national interests. These indicators are still there. So, it is good that the exercise, initially stated for March 29 to April 2 was shifted to May 3 to May 7 was again postponed in the hope that the incoming administration would rectify and do the basic things preparatory for a dependable head count.
The recurrent tendencies of our policy-makers to pursue unprofitable ventures have become burdensome for suffering Nigerians, financially and emotionally. The proposed 2023 national census is one of such and one cannot but wonder if the guys at the National Population Commission, NPC, are not just toeing the path of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and just wanted some funds to fritter away.
In fact, the NPC will expectedly expend a whopping N869bn to conduct a successful census. Out of this huge sum, N626bn would be spent on the actual census while N243bn would be used for follow-up operations through 2025.
When you add this to INEC’s N499bn, one would ask who in Nigeria really wants a census at this particular time; what for?
Of course, the census is a desirable exercise for any nation that wants to get its acts together, as it helps in planning. However, for over 60 years, post-independent Nigeria has yet to morph into a nation. It has remained a disparate association of tribal enclaves, a reason each census exercise is nothing but a political jingoism to satisfy ethnic interests. This is why I always laugh at the touted over 200 million people. Nigeria could be much more than that or much less because, for all I care, these are chicanery projections. Simply, the 2023 census, postponed or not, is not only an ethnic-driven narcissistic ritual but also futile and a needless waste of scarce resources.
The NPC knows why they are upbeat about the purported census but that is far from altruistic interest. It is an opportunity for them to line their pockets with money and not because they care a hoot about the country’s population.
Nigeria lacks the capacity to conduct a credible census because of inherent fault lines that make capturing the demographics near impossible. The impish headings of each exercise belly the very essence of getting the geographical spread of the populace. A census should be able to provide accurate and acceptable data on the population and housing needs. The data must be efficacious and reliable for national planning.
A condition where very many Nigerians are languishing in IDP camps far flung from their ancestral homes is far from suitable for the conduct of a census. A condition where swathes of Nigerian territories are still under the grips of terrorists and bandits is not fit for a census. A situation where Nigerians are starving, living under harsh and highly deplorable standards cannot pass the test of a census. A country where people’s religion, origin, and language are not part of the demographics cannot fit a census but rather a political gimmickry that can never drive the development goals of any country.
It is not enough to ask people not to travel to their state of origin to be counted. More important is to assure them that wherever they are, their demographics must be captured to reflect their true identity. How come people are treated as aliens by their host communities and marked for decimation yet are used to boost the population of those places to the detriment of their own people?
Fair is fair; It is a disservice to people when you take away their roots and faith because they are assumed to be ‘Nigerian’, even when where they are domiciled refuses to assimilate them. What kind of Nigeria is that?
For instance, the Igbo have been systematically reduced to a minority status in a country everyone knows they are one of the majority tribes. Igbo people are credited to other states where they are usually second after their hosts simply because that is where they live and do business. Yet they are humiliated and haunted by the host communities whenever it suits them.
Why cannot tribe, state of origin, tongue, and faith be part of the headings of the census? Which one Nigeria are we talking about; does it exist only when the Igbo are shortchanged? Is there one Nigeria at all or are we still suffering the hallucinations of General Yakubu Gowon? Nigeria can never work if we ‘go on with one Nigeria’, the kind Gowon did; NEVER!
There can never be reliable data for research and planning under the circumstance Nigeria finds itself, especially so because no previous census has been reliable due to gratuitous political meddling, resulting in sexed-up figures.
Indeed, the census exercises in this country in 1962, 1963, 1973, 1991, and 2006 were all marred by barefaced irregularities and disputations. There are no indications that Nigeria has learnt any lessons to warrant going into yet another head count. Rather we now have much deepened ethnic mistrust, religious dissensions, discrimination, political brigandage, convoluted insecurity, corruption, etc. Some of these conditions destroyed previous exercises have heightened and if the monsters are still left on parade, any activity towards a census would merely be tantamount to finding bread for the boys.
It was even unimaginable that the census was timed to coincide with the just concluded controversial general election. The reason for this unwise decision is yet unclear but whoever thought to match the two emotive programmes did not wish the country well. Thankfully it has been delayed after the initial hiccups. However, there can never be a good time for the census if the environment is not first made favourable.
Nigerian policy-makers have always been left to grope in the dark for want of credible data that will aid their planning hence the wishy-washy and ineffective policies that have not been able to get the country off its Lilliputian feet. What we have as census are conjured and cobbled-up figures ferreted out of the hat of a boogeyman.
The country lacks accurate records of births and deaths. Birth and death certificates are procured at street corners. Even the dead draw salaries in Nigeria. Go to the courts to swear an affidavit; you never get to see the oath commissioner because they have positioned touts at the entrances, who collect your information and do the runs, only to hand you the stamped and signed. It is quite easy to swear an affidavit for your own death or even change your name to the president’s. What a country!
Let us be truthful to ourselves for once, Nigerians, we do not know how many we are! That is sadly responsible for our backwardness because it is difficult or impossible for a mother to cook a meal without knowing how many mouths she would be feeding or cooking for.
Nigeria of today lacks the temperament and mood for an acceptable census. Addressing the anomalies and injustice and inequities in the polity is of more urgent need than another trip down wasteland.
The postponement of the 2023 census will achieve nothing if, at the end of the day, it is still the usual ritual we engage in under the alias of a census. We must not keep deceiving ourselves about the need for a headcount unless the government finds the courage to prise the exercise from the grip of political and ethnic hawks.
