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By Victor C. Ariole
“The majority of lawfully votes cast” in pronouncing a winner in Brazil is clear and unambiguous. Like they have six presidential candidates on the ballot paper, and for October 2026 elections comprising both Governorship, Congress and Presidential, about 158 million registered electorate, only about 125 million turned out to cast their votes; quite impressive unlike in Nigeria where out of 99 million, only 30 million could be present. It says also how seamless and secure the process is; as people either remain indoors and electronically vote or come out physically for the exercise. Hence, no worries for hazards associated with the presence of thugs or street urchins; even in places like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo where the greatest number of voters reside, seen as favela bases—street urchins-prone. Both the main presidential candidates—Bolsonaro and Lula—cast their votes from Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, respectively. However, Bolsonaro seemed to have won in both, making the run-off of October 25 quite predictable in favour of Bolsonaro. What is more, the minor four presidential candidates’ supporters— except Augusto Cury who obtained 2.89% of the lawful votes cast —,are for center-right, close to Bolsonaro’s ideology of conservatism and market forces. Hence, a herculean task for Lula da Silva who has been seen as complacent—a feeling of taking for granted the Brazilians who have sympathised with him in and out of prison, and back to Presidency.
After a consecutive first and second terms’ tenure, and successfully ushering in his candidate Yusef as President, and Yusef being beaten by Senior Bolsonaro disrupting her second tenure, andin the process creating a room that actualized probing the tenure of Lula and sentencing him to prison, though later vacated that allowed him to come for a third term, Lula failed to keep his followers on assured path. As a Workers’ Party, labour issue ought to be foremost in his mind, but it turned out fighting the provider of labours, as taxes and wages turned out very contentious. Minimum wage in Brazil stagnated at about 1600 Brazilian dollar ($325), and taxes went high, whereas Petrobras, their oil giant was doing well at international level, keeping Lula’s interest in BRICS alive—an interest not shared by Bolsonaro group.
Transparent as the electoral process proves, “mainstream Brazilians” are going to be vindicated come 25th October 2026. Mainstream Brazilians are mostly found in the South, South-East and West central. North East and North where Lula gathers sympathy are not so much so Brazilian mainstream; they seem greatly informal and lean more to the Amazon forest and their likes in Guyana, Surinam and the Carribeans, than inside Brazil.
In effect, like Nigerian case, poverty is returning to the two areas in an unexpected way to an extent that the Amazonian forest is seeking for greater protection, and it is even evading Lula’s groups.
Brazil with its over 214 million inhabitants holds over 50% of the GDP of South American continent where countries like Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname find themselves more or less latching on Brazilian economy. Most of them have also gravitated into far right or right party governance, especially Argentina and Peru, as Venezuela with its left party mindset and governance seemed uneventful in creating prosperity for its people till Trump’s arrest of their President, Maduro.
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Mainstream Brazilians seem interested in joining the league that attracts Trump’s sympathy like Argentina and Peru attract, and it seems to create less invasion ofstreet urchins like it happened when Senior Bolsonaro was accused of instigating coup d’état.
Observation shows that main polling stations in Brazil are not threatened by urchins’ invasion or possibly uprising if Lula fails to win.
Brazil operates both Federal and State police structure like Nigeria intends to do. However, unlike Nigeria, police presence is rarely seen at polling stations, either because both physical and distant electronic votings are allowed or because the process is paperless. It is something Nigeria needs to learn. In the same polling space, a stand-alone distinct judiciary polling booth is present. What it means is that before the result of a localised polling booth is transmitted to the central, that stand-alone judiciary booth puts a stamp of authority on it before transmission to avoid anyfraudulent infection to a larger extent if any at all occurs.
Ability and transparent electoral logistic approach that produced isolated 6 gubernatorial statesout of 18, for a run-off alongside the Presidential run-off of 25th October, is another commendable electoral transparency of the Brazilian system. Meanwhile, the congress including 81 Senators went free from run – off. The Gubernatorial run-offs are basically parties of the right or centre-right contesting for Governorship which indicates also that the Right Parties, either far or center, are not in harmony, hence possibility of center-right agreeing with Workers Party if and only if Lula da Silva makes a favourable concession to the centrists.
Incumbency factor does not work in Brazil and it has been proved by Lula’s protegee Yusef losing election as well as Senior Bolsonaro losing also. Hence, for the Brazilians and theirjudicial proactive guard, for any election, the electronic ballot gadgets count. A great lesson for Nigeria to avoid unnecessary litigation process. Instant result announcement is greatly important—either to call for run-off or to outrightly announce the winner. Nigeria’s 25% of 2/3 of the States including Abuja is not transparent enough, and it could be made very transparent if the Will is there; and majority of lawfully votes cast must indeed be 50%+ of those who really came out to vote.
• Ariole, Ph.D, Professor of French and Francophone Studies, University of Lagos
