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From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
Last week’s crack in the relationship among the All Progressives Congress (APC) stakeholders, ahead of the commencement of the implementation of the party’s timetable and schedule of activities for the 2027 general elections, was a confirmation of a predicted imminent implosion of the ruling party in the build-up to next year’s polls.
Daily Sun can report that the bone of contention, which rattled their hitherto uneasy calm relationships, was the disagreement among the party’s national leadership, the presidency, the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) and the members of the National Assembly, principally on the contentious issue of automatic return tickets for elective officials.
In retrospect, what has been playing out among the APC gladiators is a predicted, premeditated time bomb, already in the public domain, waiting to explode and destabilise the party ahead of next year’s polls.
Recall that apart from the automatic ticket being the single most important motivating factor for the governors who defected into the APC fold, the National Assembly members had repeatedly appealed to both the presidency and the party’s national leadership to guarantee them the same automatic tickets, to ensure seamless continuation of legislative processes, among other benefits.
Before this recent threat that rattled the peaceful coexistence of the party’s stakeholders, APC leaders were on a rollercoaster trajectory, deploying and concentrating a greater percentage of their time and resources in plotting to weaken and undermine the opposition parties.
From endless litigation to secret manipulation, fuelling and instigating the leadership crisis rocking the opposition parties through the planting of moles, the APC leaders were actually on a smooth ride before the time bomb reached a boiling point last week.
The crack unexpectedly came at the period when the ruling party took the driving seat in determining the fate of the opposition, judging by the utterances and marching orders the presidency, through Rt. Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, the Chief of Staff to President Bola Tinubu, recently handed over to their foot soldiers in the opposition party.
It came to a head when Gbajabiamila, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, directed Leke Abejide, the lawmaker representing Yagba Federal Constituency, to remain in the opposition coalition party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), to “fight and scatter” forces seeking to wrest control of the party from him and factional chairman Nafiu Bala Gombe.
In his remarks at an event in Abuja, he told Abejide: “I know you to be a committed party man, a fighter who does not like to be cheated. My charge to you is to stay in that same ADC. Fight them. Scatter them. Hold on to your party, ADC. Do not allow them.”
“We like what you are doing. Continue. Don’t let the former governor tell you to join the APC. Stay in the ADC. Win your election in the ADC as you will. Bring Gombe. We will support him. Bring him. Do the right thing. You are a fighter. Do the right thing.”
“Nobody can come and take your party away from you, a party that you have given years of your sweat, your money and everything. No. Continue. Good luck in court,” Gbajabiamila charged, in what appeared to be a confirmation that the presidency has been fuelling the crisis in the opposition parties.
But the rumbling in the ruling party may have confirmed the saying that what goes around comes around perhaps a typical example of one receiving the same measure they used to give others.
And in line with the apprehensions and anticipation of many politically conscious Nigerians, the retributive justice threatening to crumble the ruling party seems to be monumental.
The frosty relationship and battle royal among the APC leaders, chieftains and other stakeholders seem to be coming with the force of thunder and lightning, furiously threatening to truncate all the plans the party had put in place to ensure an outlandish victory in next year’s general elections.
Just as the party’s stakeholders concluded arrangements to commence the sale of expressions of interest and nomination forms, the contentious issue of printing multiple forms for all aspirants to democratise the process or limiting it to only the anointed aspirant reared its ugly head last week.
According to a reliable source at the party’s national headquarters in Abuja who confided in the Daily Sun, while the PGF had insisted on the party’s leadership handing over the nomination forms to them to determine who becomes the party’s candidates, the members of the National Assembly on the platform of the ruling party, desperately seeking automatic return tickets, had kicked against the proposal.
The legislators had, in protest, expressed reservations over the possibility of their state governors, in custody of the nomination forms, refusing to give them the forms, thereby denying them tickets in preference to other party members considered more loyal to the governors.
The source further claimed that apart from the face-off between the legislators and the governors, the national leadership of the party was also on a collision course with both the governors and the presidency, which was apparently sustaining the party financially over the planned use of the sale of the nomination forms to legitimately raise funds to run the party.
The hostility and misunderstanding came to a head last week when the APC’s National Working Committee (NWC) moved against the governors’ plans, insisting on taking charge of handling the nomination of candidates in line with its responsibility.
And in what looked like making a bold statement on their readiness to fight for their rights and possibly extricate themselves from the clutching grip of the governors, some members of the party’s leadership hurriedly briefed the media last week, even while the contending stakeholders were still enmeshed in a meeting at the State House to find an amicable solution to the contentious issue.
Setting aside the timetable and schedule of activities for its primaries that it released last week, the leadership of the party threw the contest open by rejecting and dismissing the initial speculated plans to print single nomination forms to give automatic tickets from top to bottom, announcing that it had opened up the sale of forms to every aspirant desiring to contest the elections.
In what looked like a confirmation of the rumbling among the major gladiators, the party’s Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Duro Meseko, and the National Leader of Persons with Disabilities (PWDs), Tolu Bankole, were very emphatic during the media parley last week in confirming that there would be no automatic ticket, even for President Tinubu.
According to Meseko, the party’s deputy spokesperson: “There was a rumour that our nomination forms would be restricted or limited to certain individuals. I am here to inform all party faithful and aspirants that our nomination forms for every party member seeking office under the APC are open. Nomination forms are open for all members of the APC contesting elections.”
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“For emphasis, the nomination forms for presidential, governorship and other elective positions are open for any interested Nigerian to purchase,” he announced, dismissing the speculation that the crack had pushed the party’s leadership to reclaim its mandate of taking full control of proceedings in nominating candidates for next year’s general elections.
Even as the APC NWC courageously dismissed mounting speculation of a crisis culminating in an imminent implosion of the party, there are nonetheless bold signs across the state chapters of the party indicating the possibility that it might cave in very soon under the heavy weight of contending forces and clashing interests ahead of next year’s polls.
Considering that the influx into the APC was largely driven more by the personal interests of political officeholders seeking a viable platform to secure re-election tickets than by the interests of the people and the electorate, the chickens seem to have come home to roost, with the impending implosion of the party at various state chapters resulting from visible clashes of interests among desperate members and chieftains.
Across the states from Lagos to Nasarawa, Ogun to Adamawa, Rivers to Taraba, Enugu to Kwara , there are already palpable clashes of interests among stakeholders over who gets what, between founding members and those who joined the party later.
The ruling party seems to be facing complicated situations stemming from members of the party’s leadership who apparently lack the courage and moral rectitude to challenge their state governors, having retained their positions through the governors’ magnanimity and endorsements, the superiority complex of the PGF, the hopelessness of the legislators, and the entangling dilemma of the presidency over the difficulties in managing the conflicting interests of stakeholders fighting among themselves.
However, amid the rumblings, the battle seems to have been won, at least temporarily in favour of the state governors, who have reportedly taken custody of the nomination forms to ultimately pick candidates of their choice, leaving both the legislators and the party’s leadership on the losing end.
A disgruntled source privy to the stakeholders’ meeting held at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa last week lamented, in a chat with the Daily Sun: “The governors have actually won the battle to take custody of the nomination forms, despite the protest from the legislators and the party’s leadership, but they have not definitively won the war.”
“The implication of what happened is that all aspirants are at the mercy of the governors to decide who gets what position. What the resolution to hand over the forms to the governors also means is that they have gotten automatic return tickets, while the tenure-tied ones have gotten the tickets to become the party’s candidates, expectedly for the upper chamber of the legislature. It was an intricate but clinically executed operation by the governors against the other stakeholders of the party,” the source lamented.
Regardless of how one views the decision, it marks an end to the presidency’s dilemma, torn between using the governors as field marshals to win the presidential election in their localities, and failing to grant the automatic ticket request of National Assembly members who continue to serve as the presidency’s allies in facilitating its policies and programmes seamlessly, which had complicated the situation.
The decision was actually a monumental loss to the party’s leadership, which had been angling to use proceeds from the sale of nomination forms as revenue, since the NWC cannot afford to declare war against its benefactors who are the governors, who are ever ready to shoulder and bankroll the party’s financial responsibilities.
On the surface, the resolution looked like a perfectly executed operation, apparently in favour of the governors, to restore sanity in the party. But the backlash may be worse than imagined, given the impending crises that will bedevil the party at various state chapters.
In state chapters like Rivers, Ogun, Kwara, Nasarawa, Lagos and some parts of the South-East, where things are gradually falling apart among many disgruntled party stakeholders, the decision will certainly escalate the already frosty relationships among them.
In some states, there will certainly be a straight battle between tenure-tied governors seeking automatic tickets to graduate to the upper chamber and incumbent legislators also desperately seeking re-election.
However, the states more vulnerable than others in light of this resolution include Rivers, where the presidency’s diplomatic approach to handling the political crisis between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and state Governor Sim Fubara will face a fresh litmus test, and Lagos, the President’s home state.
The decision, in every ramification, could undoubtedly prove counterproductive in Rivers State, where it will worsen the crisis between the gladiators especially as Wike’s rainbow coalition has vowed not to give Governor Fubara a re-election ticket leaving pundits to ask the pertinent question of whether Wike will stand in the way of the APC leadership’s effort to ensure that its preferred candidate emerges victorious in next year’s February governorship poll.
With a political landscape in Rivers State defined by the dynamics of consensus rather than power struggle, the politics of consolidation will still remain the defining factor because, unlike other states, political consensus will be a near impossibility, which could fuel a looming crisis capable of causing an implosion that engulfs the ruling party at both the state and national levels.
And to some pundits, even if Wike is prevailed upon to shelve his persistent efforts to undermine Governor Fubara’s re-nomination and election, the nomination of candidates for the State House of Assembly will still serve as another trigger, igniting a fresh round of crisis among the gladiators in the build-up to the primaries next month.
In Ogun, the handing over of nomination forms to Governor Dapo Abiodun will definitely deepen the crisis in the state chapter. In every consideration, it will effectively formalise the endorsement of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) as his preferred successor and foreclose the possibility of incumbent Senator Gbenga Daniel securing the party’s platform to contest the senatorial ticket.
The political tension facing the ruling party with the magnitude of a possible implosion is palpable in Lagos State, where, despite the endorsement of Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, other party stakeholders have continued to jostle and contest that the governorship ticket be thrown open.
The situation in Lagos is troubling not only because of its multiple hierarchical leadership structures understandably, as the President’s home state but also because of the political movements and factional structures that united to deliver the presidency for President Tinubu yet are now working at cross purposes over who gets the governorship ticket, among strong contenders such as Hamzat, Tokunbo Abiru, Mudashiru Obasa and Abdul-Azeez Adediran (Jandor).
With the nomination forms securely in the custody of Governor Sanwo-Olu, it remains to be seen how the situation will be managed to ensure that whoever emerges as the endorsed governorship and senatorial candidate does not strain relationships within the state chapter of the party.
The expected implosion of the party over the nomination of candidates is also visible in Kwara State, where party stakeholders are at daggers drawn with each other; in Nasarawa, where stakeholders are at each other’s throats; and in many states in the South-East, where party members are complaining of governors sidelining founding members in preference for new entrants loyal to them, all clear indicators that the ruling party may implode.
It remains to be seen how the party’s national leadership, the presidency and the governors manage the backlash from aggrieved National Assembly members and other elective and appointive officials within one month of prosecuting the timetable and schedule of activities, to ensure that the worsening crisis does not engulf the party and result in the feared implosion.
