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• Legal hurdles, internal revolt, others threaten opposition party’s chances ahead 2027
• APC, INEC, presidency’s actions against opposition parties may lead to anarchy – Okorie, Shelle
•ADC caused own crisis; blaming Tinubu, courts, INEC nonsensical – Abayomi
By Omoniyi Salaudeen
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is currently grappling with an evolving crisis. What began as internal friction has snowballed into a full-scale leadership dispute, threatening the party’s status as a viable third force ahead of the 2027 general elections. With uncertainty deepening by the day, the party leadership is racing against time.
On Tuesday, despite daunting legal and logistical hurdles, the party proceeded with its National Convention in Abuja. In doing so, the leadership is attempting to construct a stable structure for the political heavyweights leading the coalition while simultaneously preventing the party from being hijacked by competing interests.
However, the situation has created a tense standoff with the regulatory authorities. By refusing to recognise the David Mark-led leadership pending judicial resolution, INEC has effectively frozen the ADC’s ability to conduct official business—from nominating candidates to receiving statutory grants.
Uncertainty
The instability facing the ADC stems from INEC’s recent decision to withdraw recognition from rival factions, leaving the party in a legal and administrative limbo. The central question remains: Will INEC eventually accept the National Convention as the supreme authority, or will the commission stick to the letter of the law regarding pre-existing court orders?
With this standoff, the party’s fate now rests on whether the High Court validates the convention or strikes it down as an act of contempt. If the leadership fails to satisfy judicial requirements by the end of this month, the ADC risks entering the 2027 season as a ghost party—a platform boasting big names but possessing no legal legs to stand on.
To some analysts, the decision to hold a National Convention despite a standing court order was a classic all-in one move. By defying the court, the leadership is betting that a successful convention will create a fait accompli that INEC cannot ignore. However, if the courts view this as contempt, it could trigger the wholesale disqualification of the party’s upcoming activities.
Rebellion within a rebellion
Already, the festering crisis has split the party into three distinct camps. On one side is the David Mark faction, backed by high-profile defectors, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and former Governor Peter Obi. They claim legitimacy through a July 2025 NEC resolution.
On the flipside is the Nafiu Bala group, which leans on the previous party structure, insisting it remains the authentic leadership while challenging the legality of the new arrivals. Positioned between these two rival camps are state chairmen who have rejected both factions and called for a new interim management committee—representing a rebellion within a rebellion.
Compounding these divisions is INEC’s refusal to recognise any factional leader. Without a recognised chairman, the ADC cannot access its share of joint party funds or submit official candidate lists. This looming uncertainty is no longer just a threat; it is the current reality.
Legal hurdles
The ADC leadership is currently caught in a perfect storm. They must resolve the legal battle for the chairmanship before the INEC deadline for party primaries. Failure to do so will result in the loss of the opportunity to field candidates for the general elections, likely leading to a mass exodus of the very heavyweights recruited in 2025.
The appeal filed by David Mark challenges the March 12 Court of Appeal judgment and seeks to restrain INEC from altering the party’s leadership structure while the case is pending. A five-member panel, led by Justice Mohammed Garba, has fixed April 22 to hear the appeal over the leadership tussle with Nafiu Bala. The court granted an accelerated hearing due to the urgency of the matter, ordering all parties to complete their briefs by April 20. Given the April 23 INEC deadline for candidates, a split ruling or further delay could effectively lock the ADC out of the upcoming electoral cycle.
New constitution as survival mechanism
In a strategic move to neutralise the old guard, the convention ratified a new constitution, serving as a formal vote of confidence from the delegates. By doing so, the leadership is attempting to “move the goalposts.” A new document can technically vacate previous offices and define new terms, potentially rendering current legal challenges against the leadership’s tenure obsolete by replacing the rules they allegedly broke.
The leadership intends to argue in court that the party has self-corrected through its highest decision-making body, the National Convention. However, this move could deepen the crisis. Since the convention was held in defiance of a specific court injunction, the ratification of the new constitution could be declared null and void, leaving the party operating under a document the law does not recognise.
According to renowned constitutional lawyer, Dr Tunji Abayomi, the retroactive application of a new constitution is a legal minefield. Under the law, internal party rules are generally prospective. If a court finds that the leadership’s actions in 2025 violated the then-active constitution, ratifying a new one in 2026 does not provide immunity. Furthermore, the doctrine of Lis Pendens suggests that parties should not take actions that overreach the judicial process while a matter is sub judice. If the court eventually rules that the convention itself was illegal, every act performed there becomes a nullity.
“How is that constitution going to be biding in the light of controversies on ground,” Abayomi quipped, giving analysis of different scenarios that will like play out in court. He argued: “The controversy is that the Exco of ADC is unconstitutional and unlawful. That same Exco organised a congress that now came up with a constitution, which was ratified by the same unlawful congress. Unless the court decides finally that the congress is legitimate, that constitution is a nullity. Even if the court decides in its favour, legitimacy will take effect on the date of the decision of the court. Everything done before that time is an illegality. If they have good thinking lawyers, what they should do is to file an affidavit of urgency in court instead of going on a voyage of discovery.
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“You can go on a voyage of discovery, nothing stops you. But in a situation where the recognition of your candidate or congress is a matter of law, you want to be sure that the supervising agent, INEC, gives its consent and understanding. If you don’t do that, it is an exercise in futility.
“Ultimately, the matter is going to the Supreme Court. So, the crisis in ADC is serious. They are just at the preliminary stage of injunctions. After that, the matter goes to the Court of Appeal. After the Court of Appeal, it goes to the Supreme Court. If in the wisdom of the leaders or rival leaders of ADC they decide to go on a voyage of discovery, it’s okay for them. At the end of it all, they will reap the fruits of their efforts either negative or positive.”
Senator Anthony Adeniyi (SAN), adding his voice to the discourse, predicted the worse scenario where the party might lose the opportunity to have its logo on the ballots.
“The convention is an effort in futility because it was organised in defiance of court order. If they fail to comply with the provision of the law, they may not have their logo on the ballot,” he declared outright.
The old guard purge
While the elite battle continues in Abuja, the ADC’s youth wings are pushing for an immediate restoration of order. Protests in Kogi and at INEC headquarters highlight a growing tension between the original grassroots members and the new coalition of elite defectors.
The convention’s decision to purge the old guard marks a definitive shift toward a brutal internal house cleaning. Leadership has framed suspended members as “double agents” and “infidels” working to undermine the party from within. Allegations include stalling state congresses, such as in Adamawa, to maintain administrative paralysis.
There are heavy whispers suggesting some members of the old guard have acted as consultants for the ruling party, trading secrets for personal gain. They are linked by the current leadership to the endless lawsuits preventing a unified front at INEC. By removing these individuals and neutralising the Forum of State Chairmen, the Mark faction aims to eliminate dissenting voices and move away from a transactional reputation. However, this scorched-earth approach may backfire. By suspending and labelling these members as unfaithful, the party risks a mass exodus of the grassroots structures essential for any viable third-force option.
The blame game
The situation has reached a tipping point, with leadership pointing fingers at external influences—specifically the ruling party and the electoral umpire. They argue the crisis is a coordinated effort to destabilise the opposition, claiming INEC is being used as a tool to ignore valid NEC resolutions in favour of proxies for outside interests. To the ADC leadership, INEC’s interpretation of appellate rulings is not a neutral administrative act, but a deliberate attempt to keep the party in a state of permanent legal limbo.
Tunji Shelle, a chieftain of the ADC in Lagos, expressed satisfaction with the conduct of the just-concluded national convention, yet blamed the wrangling in the party on the antics of the APC and INEC. In spite of the leadership challenges crippling its activities, he declared that the ADC would take over Aso Rock Villa in 2027.
He stated: “ADC has become the darling of the people. Everybody is now showing interest in it. During the membership registration exercise, a lot of people joined within a very short time. It was a very successful one. Now that the convention has come and gone, many more people are still showing interest. It has become an organic party with people showing interest willingly. Many people didn’t believe it could go this far. It has exceeded the expectations of even the people who conceived the idea of the party. ADC is fully ready for the coming election, growing from strength to strength.”
However, Shelle attributed the prolonged litigation to the deliberate efforts of the APC and the presidency, whom he claims are scheming to achieve a one-party state. He added: “It is very obvious that the president and the ruling party (APC) are working against the interest of the ADC. The present government had done it to the PDP before, using Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, as a destabilising force. He even openly said that he would work for the APC and the presidency. And he has done it in Rivers State; he has done it in several other states. Unfortunately, the law court seems to be compromised.”
“The same thing happened in the Labour Party. They created a crisis, fragmented the party, and it became a lawsuit. It is the same thing they want to extend to the ADC. It is crystal clear that the present government is behind the crisis in the PDP and the Labour Party. Unfortunately for them, rather than reducing in size, the ADC has continued to grow. It is obvious to every Nigerian that the APC is out to kill the opposition so that we become a one-party state.”
In spite of the legal hurdles before the David Mark-led leadership, he exuded confidence that the party would get justice at the Supreme Court.
“We are very hopeful that we will get justice. I am optimistic because the issue is very clear and the law is on our side, except if there is an abuse somewhere. The interpretation of INEC is best known to the authorities. INEC is not a law court. INEC itself witnessed the transformation of the incumbent Chairman and the Secretary. They witnessed the transition from the old ADC to the current leadership. The party also gave notice to INEC that it was going to hold the convention and they acknowledged it. But suddenly, they came up with an issue that somebody brought a suit to their notice and as a result, they will delete the names of our National Chairman and the Secretary from their website. This is very unfortunate. The court didn’t say so. The Supreme Court had earlier said that the leadership of a party is an internal affair of the party. INEC is now trying to do the job of the court, trying to work against the progress of the party. It is assumed that INEC is being influenced by the President or the ruling party. This is very unfortunate. INEC cannot stop the ADC from being in Aso Rock come 2027.”
Asked to project an alternative option for the coalition forces in the event that the court decides otherwise, he said, “When we get to the bridge, we shall cross it.”
Chief Chekwas Okorie, sharing his perspective on the on-going power-play scenario, predicted a looming anarchy unless the judiciary can guide its conduct by the letters and spirit of the constitution.
“I have been looking at the events in the ADC with worry and concern. For me, it is a serious cause for concern because Nigeria has reached a level where political parties and individuals no longer have confidence in the democratic institutions that exist and may decide to resort to self-help. That is an invitation to anarchy.”
“About three weeks ago, before all these things began to surface in this manner, I had written an open letter to the President urging him to stop the brewing anarchy. We have only one hope left in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is there to give judgment in line with the spirit and the letter of the law. Where the letters of the law are not in consonance with the spirit of the law, the Supreme Court is known to have given priority to the spirit of the law as superior to the letters of the law. The case of Omoboriowo and Adekunle Ajasin in the old Ondo State comes to my mind. In that particular case, Ondo State was ablaze and Omoboriowo ran away from the state. The Supreme Court saw that the danger that was coming could be another ‘wild, wild West’ and ruled that while according to the letter of the law, Omoboriowo won, according to the spirit of the law, Ajasin won and therefore gave victory to Ajasin. Law is made for man, not man for law,” he said philosophically.
According to him, the current instability plaguing the opposition is orchestrated by the ruling party, and he therefore urged the president to be mindful of the rising tension in the country. “My advice is that the president should be mindful of the fact that there are so many flashpoints in this country today. Let the Supreme Court grant the opposition a level playing ground to operate. There are so many judgements that say internal affairs of political parties are not justiciable. If they do anything contrary to that, let it be on record that I, Chekwas Okorie, warned that it would lead to anarchy.”
Abayomi, in a sharp reaction to the discourse, dismissed the allegation of executive and judicial interference as purely nonsensical. He said: “Attacking the court and blaming the government for the act of the court is nonsensical. I don’t think any judge will take instructions from anywhere. Instead of blaming themselves for going to court, they are blaming the court for deciding a case they brought to it. It sounds very funny indeed.”
“I think we should continue to watch the drama to see whether it will become the drama of the absurd or the drama of the wise. INEC is headed by a lawyer, so they know what they are doing. And what they are doing is correct. Instead of blaming the court and blaming INEC, they shouldn’t have gone to court in the first instance. They should have settled the crisis internally. The same thing is what the Labour Party is doing. Today, they blame INEC. Tomorrow, they blame Tinubu. The following day, they blame the court. Can’t you blame yourself for your internal wrangling?”
“Does anybody go to court in the APC? They find a way to resolve their problems. The future of the ADC is already in jeopardy. They brought jeopardy to themselves. If these political parties will not learn to settle their internal affairs, they should simply stop blaming INEC, blaming Tinubu, and blaming everybody. These are the same set of people that destroyed this nation. Is it not this same Mark who said the telephone was not for the ordinary people? Nemesis is catching up with them.”
