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From Ndubuisi Orji, Abuja
In the 2023 general elections, the Labour Party took the country by storm. Like an hurricane, the LP made a big mark across the 36 states, and the Federal Capital Territory ( FCT) in the presidential and National Assembly elections. The party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi had been a rallying point for Nigerians desirous of a new political others.
For instance, in Edo State, the LP, apart from winning the presidential poll, clinched the Edo South Senatorial seat, as well as the House of Representatives seats for Oredo and Egor/Ikpoba Okha Federal Constituencies.
Expectedly, in the run up to the September 21 Edo State governorship election, the LP became a party of choice for aspirants wishing to succeed Godwin Obaseki as the governor of Edo State, but are disenchanted with the two dominant party- the All Progressives Congress ( APC ) and the Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP).
Nonetheless, about one month to the gubernatorial contest, the party is facing daunting task in its quest to dislodge the PDP and become the ruling party in Edo State.
In addition to intractable crisis in the party and other issues, members of the Obidient movement, which mobilized actively for the LP victory in the 2023 polls, are not united behind the party in the forthcoming poll. The Obedient consists of Obi’s supporters across party lines.
The opposition party had in February nominated former President of the Nigerian Bar Association ( NBA), Olumide Akpata, as its standard bearer in next month’s governorship poll. Akpata defeated educationist and 4-time governorship aspirant, Kenneth Imasuagbon and former member of the House of Representatives, Sergius Ogun, to clinch the LP’s governorship ticket. While Akpata is a new comer to the politics of the state, Imasuagbon and Ogun were previously members of the PDP.
The embattled LP national chairman, Julius Abure, in the aftermath of the primary, had reportedly described the former NBA president as the best man to occupy the Edo State Government House in the coming dispensation.
Nevertheless, Abure charged those who lost the primary to close ranks with the candidate and work for the victory of the party in the main election.
“Primary election usually comes with a lot of tension, bickering, politicking and horse-trading, however, now that the primary is over and a candidate has emerged, I want to call on all Labour Party fateful, particularly, those who have lost at the primaries to team up with the candidate so that we can all work in unity and togetherness for the victory of the party.
“Whatever errors we have made or pains any party member may have suffered in the process of this party primaries, we want to call on all and sundry to put it behind them and let us all come together as a united family to work for the success of the party ahead of the election, “ Abure was quoted to have said.
Zoning, internal crisis blight LP chances
Nonetheless, events in the Edo State chapter of the LP have indicated that the national chairman’s appeal was not heeded by the aggrieved aspirants.
This is as the dust raised by the defeated LP gubernatorial candidate, Imasuagbon, is yet to settle one month to the gubernatorial poll.
Imasuagbon, who came second in the governorship primary is still contesting the outcome of the exercise. He had challenged the nomination of Akpata as the LP gubernatorial candidate. However, a Federal High Court sitting in Benin, in June, dismissed the suit for lack of merit and upheld the emergene of Akpata as the standard bearer in the September 21, contest. Nevertheless, the educationist has taken his case to the appellant court.
Besides the Imasuagbon’s suit, Akpata is also contending with the leadership crisis in the LP, which has affected the cohesion of the party. In the aftermath of his nomination, the schisms in the national Secretariat of the LP has also pitched leaders in Edo State against themselves, with different persons laying claim to the leadership of the party in the state. The result is that the party would be going into next month’s election with a divided house.
Nonetheless, analysts say the biggest drawback for the LP candidate is the push for power shift to Edo Central and the crack in the opposition party.
Prior to the conduct of party primaries for the September 21 governorship poll, the clamour for the zoning of the governorship seat to Edo Central,had dominated political discourse in the state.
Since inception of the present democratic dispensation in 1999 Edo Central has only produced the governor for about 18 months, under Senator Osariemem Osunbor. Osunbor governed the state from May 29 , 2007 to November 14, 2008, when he was sacked by the Court of Appeal.
Consequently, the PDP and the APC apparently in response to the sentiment across the state that the next governor should come from Edo Central, in the interest of justice and equity, choose their standard bearers from the zone.
However, the LP nominated Akpata, who is from Edo South. Edo South would have had the governorship seat for 16 years by November 16, when Governor Godwin Obaseki would have completed his second term. Chief Lucky Igbinedion, also from Edo South, had served as governor from 1999 to 2007.
In all, Edo South has produced the governor for 16 years, and deputy governor for a total of nine years and six months; while Edo North has produced the governor for eight years and deputy governor for 16 years, since 1999.
Recall that in the botched third republic, former APC national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun from Edo South had served as governor of the state, for 11 months, between January 1993 to November, of same year, with Reverend Peter Obadan from Edo North as his deputy.
Therefore, not a few believe that Akpata’s candidature is more or less an own goal by the LP, owing to the prevailing political sentiment in the state, presently . Analysts say the LP will be swimming against the tide in the September 21 contest.
Nonetheless, the former NBA believes that he is the man to beat in the September 21 contest. A national newspaper in a recent interview with Akpata, quoted the former NBA president as saying that the politics of zoning will not stop him.
“Now, every party does their zoning. How does that affect me? With the generality of the people, I have looked around, there are some sympathies for Edo Central, but politics is a game of numbers. It’s not just about sympathy. You must have the numbers to back that move. Oshiomhole, when he was interviewed recently said that he did not run as governor on zoning. He ran as an Etsako man. He went to convince the Benin people that he was the better candidate,” Akpata reportedly said.
He added,,”so, if the two candidates of the PDP and APC, who are from the same central can convince the Edo South, who have about 57 per cent of the voting population, that they are better, congratulations to them. But I fail to see how that will work. I am the Benin man in the race. I am from the Labour Party. Political calculation, it will be very difficult, all things being equal for any of them to beat me.”
The optimism of the LP candidate not withstanding, pundits say the odds against him are enormous. Checks reveal that the influence of the opposition party, judging by the results of the 2023 national Assembly is restricted to Benin metropolis, which consists of three of the council areas- Oredo, Egor and Ikpoba Okha- in Edo South. Edo State has a total of 18 council areas, with seven in Edo South; six in Edo North and five in Edo Central.
Besides, Edo South is also home to Osarodion Ogie and Dennis Idahosa, deputy governorship candidates of the PDP and APC respectively. Also, a number of the leaders of the two other parties, including Governor Obaseki are also from the zone.
Expectedly, pundits opine that votes from the area will likely be split among the LP, PDP and APC. Analysts say this would be a major drawback for Akpata, especially as the LP has no visible presence in Edo North and Edo Central, which sees the September 21 governorship contest as their opportunity to produce a governor for the state.
Besides, there are predictions that unlike in the past when Edo South decided the winner of governorship contests, the zone may not able cast bloc votes for any of the contenders, owing to the many divergent interest of political stakeholders in the area presently. If this prediction comes through, it would further diminish the chances of the LP in the governorship poll.
