Insecurity and the broken window theory

When 44 pupils, students and teachers from three schools in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State were kidnapped on May 15 this year I was thrown into the abyss of grief. Why? Because the South West has been relatively safe with only a few and isolated incidents of insecurity. Now with the Oriire incident affecting three schools at once I was stunned. I have been an exponent of the theory that the South West will never be a sanctuary for insurgents because of its high level of literacy and low level of poverty. But I do know that no society is, or can be, crime-free so I was not by any means saying that the South West will be completely crime-free. I was giving the region high marks for reasons I gave earlier. Eventhough the South West has experienced insecurity incidents in Owo and Ekiti, for instance, I think that the attack on three schools in one day in one local government area ought to be a source of worry for stakeholders in the region. The message here is that the stories we were hearing about the North East as fairytales are now items of real-life gossip in the South West region.

The amazing coincidence was that the children and teachers of the three schools were kidnapped on the very day that the Governor of Oyo State, Mr Seyi Makinde was announced as the Presidential Candidate of the Allied People’s Movement (APM). Before that day Makinde had been a member of the splintered PDP. He, Nyesom Wike, FCT Minister and three other Governors formed a rebel group called G-5. Later, the G-5 also split with Wike owning one wing and Makinde the other wing. So some former members of the PDP are now trying to contest the next election on the platform of the unknown quantity called APM.

For me the story of the kidnap of the kids and their teachers had some political undertones. Yes, Governor Makinde is the Chief Security Officer of Oyo State. So the security of lives and property of the Oyo people is his primary responsibility eventhough he controls no security arm. But President Bola Tinubu controls, by law, all the security arms in the country so the lives and property of the people of Oyo State is also his primary responsibility. I was wondering how things will play out. Will Makinde and his followers accuse Tinubu of being behind the kidnap of the kids and their teachers since Makinde wants the chair that Tinubu is sitting on? Or will Tinubu ignore the kidnap incident or simply give tepid attention to it so as to punish Makinde for wanting to contest against him? I do not know what was going on within the circles of the two men but with the rescue of the children and their teachers it appears that both of them realized that they needed to work together for the rescue of the children, political differences notwithstanding.

From available reports the kidnappers are members of the Ansaru Sect. They initially asked for the release of their Ansaru Sect leaders earlier arrested as well as ransom but apparently these requests were not granted. Instead, the Federal Government set up a joint inter agency task force whose responsibility was to disrupt the group’s logistics, communication network, disrupt their internal cohesion, their supply routes and cordon off the forest where they were. They also tried to identify their mothers, wives, siblings and other relatives, collaborators, supplies and informants. As they cordoned off the forest they had effectively restricted the movements of the terrorists. They then arrested relations and collaborators of the terrorists, recorded videos of them which they sent to the kidnappers as a way of forcing them to surrender and release the hostages. The security agencies decided to give them a safe corridor to run away so that they do not harm the children and their teachers. Eight of the kidnappers were arrested while nine of them were said to have been killed. Eventhough the abductees stayed in the forest under tough conditions for 56 days it is a significant relief that they were rescued alive. President Tinubu and the entire security team deserve full marks for the success of the operation but so far they have only received muted applause. It is true that many Nigerians have a river of grievances against their leaders but when the Government makes any achievement we should commend it, because success often comes in small sizes. No country can make all the achievements it desires in one fell swoop. We may not be able to dim the growing flame of insecurity by one achievement but we must always acknowledge achievements when they happen. I am aware that there are 42 pupils that were taken from two schools in Mussa, Askira-Uba Local Government Area of Borno State. Also, some 36 people were kidnapped from Lassa Community in the same Borno State. In Kwara State, there are about 176 people kidnapped some weeks ago who are still in captivity. These various cases of insecurity have victimized Nigeria because of what is known as the “broken window theory.” The theory states that “if a problem is left untackled or is ineffectively tackled, it is likely to graduate into an epidemic.” That is what has happened to Nigeria on insecurity. If we had sought new, meaningful and effective strategies since the Boko Haram started terrorizing us from 2009, we would not have been in the hole in which we are today. We have only woken up late to the realisation that if we had had state police we would have been able to secure our local communities, gather intelligence easily, and respond rapidly to incidents that occur a whisper away from us. But as the saying goes it is better late than never. By the way, in all of the conversation that has been going on about the kidnap of these children we have heard nothing about the part that Amotekun had played, if any. Establishing a regional security apparatus such as Amotekun without appropriate, sophisticated arms and ammunition that is commensurate with the equipment that the terrorists wield today was mere fraud, pure public deception that President Muhammadu Buhari used to deceive the people of the South West region. Since 2014 when the National Conference mounted by President Goodluck Jonathan recommended State Police we would have been a better protected country than now if we did not choose to procrastinate. And “procrastination is the thief of time,” according to Charles Dickens in his book David Copperfield. But, again, as the saying goes it is better late than never.

I am not a security expert but I am impressed by the template used in the Oyo State incident for the successful rescue of the children and their teachers. Can this template be replicated elsewhere? That is for the security experts to worry about and if it can be tweaked and used elsewhere, why not. Any formula that works in one case can be made, with appropriate adaptation, to work in a similar situation eventhough no two security situations are the same. However, the success of this Oyo episode should galvanise us into working strenuously for the recovery of all our citizens that are kept in the forests by terrorists. And when we arrest the terrorists we must ensure that they have their day in court so that the victims may get justice delivered to them. The idea of rehabilitating and reintegrating them into various communities smacks of insanity rather than reality. We send lots of people to jail for stealing telephone sets, akara, moi moi, pure water or fish but some people have the temerity to ask that terrorists who kill and maim old and young people should be set free. They want us to roll out the red carpet for them to walk on to their palace of rehabilitation. That is double standard. That is double jeopardy. That is appeasement for someone who deserves to be punished, not appeased. When Winston Churchill was facing the tyranny of Adolph Hitler, Churchill said that “an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping that it will eat him last.” The blunt truth is that terrorists and similar criminals do not truly, fully, repent because for them appetite comes from eating. What they are used to doing is what they want to continue to do. They are not petty criminals like petty pick pockets who do so for the reason of getting something with which to feed themselves. For terrorists who take lives or ask for millions in ransom it is big business, one that can make them billionaires in no distant date. Repentance is not on their minds. What is on their minds is reward, sumptuous reward, for their criminal exertions. Not repentance.