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From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
The casualties of the 2027 presidential election outcome, in the calculations of most chieftains, leaders, members and the national leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and, by extension, the Presidency, are predictably and expectedly all the opposition party candidates.
In their estimation and imagination, as reflected in their actions and words, next year’s presidential election has already been won and lost in favour of the incumbent, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling party, APC.
The indices and criteria that will sway the election in his favour are already evident. The incontrovertible super control of the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the bossy influence on all the security apparatus, the military, the police and the para-military agencies, the penetrative political structure from the Presidency to over 32 state governors and, above all, the overwhelming financial warchest that will apparently be deployed into maximum use by January 16 next year when the election will be conducted are majorly some of the instruments at the disposal of the ruling party to deploy to secure victory.
In fairness to the President Tinubu-led administration, there have been visible infrastructural footprints across many parts of the country and, to a large extent, economic transformation to justify the humongous foreign loans it has taken.
And curiously to almost all the political stakeholders and many average Nigerians, it can only take God-factor to snatch the victory ticket from the jaws of the Aso Rock Villa lion, the incumbent, holding it with the strength, vigour and valour of an experienced political mafia who has a clear-cut knowledge of where the bones of conducting such elections are buried.
Already, the chieftains, leaders and stakeholders of the ruling party have expectedly been talking tough, boasting arrogantly of their readiness to deploy all ways and means, orthodox and unorthodox tactical measures to intimidate, frustrate, outsmart and outmaneuver opposition candidates before and during the election.
From the party’s national chairman, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, former APC National Vice Chairman (South South) Ntufam Hilliard Eta, to the Presidency, there is no threat whatsoever against President Tinubu because, in their belief, he can never be a weakling like former President Goodluck Jonathan, who lost re-election as an incumbent.
Interestingly, both the national leadership of the ruling party and the Presidency are apparently in sync in their boastful words and actions on their readiness to deploy every measure to ensure overwhelming and outright victory for President Tinubu during the election, by hook or crook.
And by way of matching words with actions, only recently, President Tinubu gave an inkling of the level of desperation when he defiantly declared a no-retreat stance against the opponents of the other political party ahead of 2027, setting a combative tone for the polls, during his recent controversial meeting with the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria.
In his declaration of what Nigerians should expect during next year’s presidential election, President Tinubu warned that: “Those who want to unseat me will try. I won’t help them tie a rope around my neck. We will wrestle till the end. All is fair in politics.”
The President, who also assured, perhaps ironically, that his administration will not intimidate political opponents, equally dismissed the claims of persecution as unfounded, stressing: “We will never, never intimidate anyone. If political opponents cry wolf, maybe they are afraid of their own shadows, or it is their own incompetence, not me.”
Superficially, his stance, in absolving himself of political witch-hunting, looks acceptable, especially with the recent court judgments favouring the opposition and the official publication of the personal credentials of the presidential candidates of the opposition parties by INEC recently, which moved the timetable and schedule of activities for the polls next year to speed gear.
Apart from the development perhaps authenticating President Tinubu’s claim that the opposition candidates are crying wolf, the biggest takeaway in the published personal credentials should be the reprieve that there may not be further significant impediments against the nominated candidates, particularly the opposition parties, to stand in for the election after surmounting the landmines allegedly laid against them by the ruling party.
In retrospect, the various efforts to truncate the ambitions of the opposition candidates through deregistration of their party platforms or scuttling their chances through several other clandestine means have been intriguing, tough and rough.
And judging by the unfortunate circumstances that destabilised and dismantled the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the point of its inability to field a presidential candidate, the ugly, precarious situations the opposition party presidential candidates faced almost throughout the build-up to the poll were scary and fierce.
However, if the path that other presidential candidates walked through the hurdle to clinch the ticket was less historically eventful, that of the candidates of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, respectively, was laced with thorns, treachery and torture.
The battle to deem the light, dismantle and eclipse the competitive edge of the opposition forces was a ferocious combination of legal, psychological and physical instruments against the opposition parties.
Apart from the constant struggle to resolve the persistent internal leadership crisis that rocked almost all the opposition parties, several forces in the ruling party not only made their existence very precarious and hellish but also desired that they go into extinction before the election.
And perhaps, after surviving the near-perfectly executed various hurdles hatched to deliberately extirpate the opposition completely, it seems that the nominated candidates now have their feet firmly forward towards participating in the presidential poll.
However, the utterances of the APC stakeholders indicate that it may definitely still not be smooth-sailing for the opposition candidates in the election. And to confirm the magnitude of the battle ahead, the recent utterance by the ruling party’s boss, Prof Yilwatda, was a confirmation that President Tinubu was even mild in his proposed game plan and approach to the poll.
Prof Yilwatda, clearly unapologetic and unrepentant in his declaration that the APC will deploy every machinery at its disposal to win the 2027 elections, recently said: “The APC has all it takes to win elections in Nigeria from councillorship to local government, National Assembly, House of Assembly, governorship, and ultimately the presidential in 2027.”
“With this assurance and confidence, I stand proud and privileged to head a party that has the machinery, the will, and the capacity to win elections at all levels. The Osun governorship election is one of our major tests. Coming from the South-West, this is the last governorship election before the 2027 general elections. This will be our litmus test. It will measure our level of preparedness for 2027.
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“It is our practice ground. It is our rehearsal for the political machine we are preparing for 2027. That is why winning the Osun election is a must for the APC. The party will mobilise resources, coordinate our people, and move into Osun in large numbers,” he said.
Like Yilwatda, the party’s national chairman, former APC Vice Chairman, Eta, was more ferocious in his appraisal and gave the victory to President Tinubu in next year’s presidential election during an exclusive interview with the Daily Sun recently.
Responding to the question on whether the opposition presidential candidates will pose any serious threat to President Tinubu during next year’s poll, he replied that it will not be an anticlimax, but also end in a landslide victory for the incumbent, dismissing both Obi and Atiku as a force.
While waving aside the impression that the APC is jittery ahead of the election over the threats from the Obi and Atiku candidacy, Eta replied: “If there is any party that is not jittery, it should be the APC. Why would the APC be jittery? We have a presidential candidate who in 2023 had too many obstacles on his way, yet he was able to win the election, let alone now. What obstacles do we have now?”
“Is it from Atiku, only talking about identity politics, or Peter Obi destroying himself every time he opens his mouth? What is it for the APC to be jittery about? Every time Obi opens his mouth, he destroys himself, letting people know that there is nothing so special about him,” he argued.
Buttressing his viewpoint further, he said: “The only thing Atiku is doing is identity politics, claiming that he is from the North. The people that will support Atiku are a small group of Fulanis in Nigeria. Not even all the Fulanis, because some of them are progressive. The Asawas, the Middle Belters, the Christians, and the non-indigenous people in the North will not support Atiku.”
“The 2027 presidential election is going to be an anticlimax. President Tinubu is going to win by a landslide. Take my region, for example; beyond the Igbo-speaking areas of the South-South, there is nobody from the zone who will not vote for Asiwaju, and we know the reason.
“Obi and Atiku were not threats to the APC in 2023, and people always forget this. There was no incumbent in 2023. Yes, it was an APC government, but 80 per cent of people in Aso Rock Villa did not want Asiwaju to be the president. They wanted to return power to Atiku.
“Asiwaju ran against his party, his government, Obi, and Atiku and still defeated all of them. Is it now that he is in power and has recorded achievements that he will not win?” Eta queried rhetorically, adding: “Let me repeat that the duo of Obi and Atiku are unfortunately not the kind of people to wrest power from Asiwaju, and Asiwaju is not Jonathan.”
If the ruling party faithful were combative and certain in their confirmation of victory for President Tinubu, the Presidency has been diplomatic in its appeals to the Nigerian electorate to judge and vote for him based on the landmark achievements and footprints he recorded in the areas of infrastructure, healthcare, education, ICT, among others, due to the funds he freed to the subnational governments.
Senior Special Assistant on Media and Special Duties to the President, Tunde Rahman, in his appeal recently, urged Nigerians to forget the remonstrations of the opposition who have continued to wallow in denial that President Tinubu has not done anything, stressing that he has done well to deserve re-election next year.
Rahman, who is also the Director of Media and Publicity for Renewed Hope Ambassadors (RHAs), said: We saw road projects, interventions in healthcare, and bridges built by both the federal and state governments. They are part of the gains of the reforms undertaken by the President Tinubu-led administration. When those reforms were initiated, people complained about initial difficulty, but those difficulties have given way to benefits that we are seeing today.
“Many of the governors have done well because the federal government reforms freed resources to them. You also know that anybody who has done well deserves to come back. Mr. President has done well in his first term, and he deserves to be re-elected to continue with the good work he has done.
“Forget the remonstrations of the opposition who continued to wallow in denial that Mr. President has not done anything, even when he has done marvelously well and deserves to be re-elected.
“I am appealing to Nigerians to judge Mr. President based on his landmark achievements, the good work he has done, and allow them to direct their voting decisions when the time comes,” he appealed.
However, beyond the rhetoric, threats and appeals, utmost in the minds of many Nigerians is the impression that the President Tinubu-led APC administration might likely deploy unconventional measures to ensure outright victory using INEC to perfect the arrangements.
In the minds of many Nigerians, there are endemic fears and perceptions that the APC-led federal government will not permit a free and fair election, judging by the electoral commission’s trust deficit, which might lend credence to their fears.
To confirm the fears of many apprehensive Nigerians, former APC NWC member, Eta told Daily Sun
Responding to the fears across Nigeria that APC may not allow free, fair, transparent presidential elections next year, Eta thundered: “That has always been the fear. In 2015, when APC contested against the incumbent, the opposition parties then were not afraid. It was so hot that then President Jonathan postponed the election for two weeks because he was afraid. I don’t know what is happening to the opposition parties today.”
“I know that every election in Nigeria, from 1960 till today, has always been rigged. We do not have the sophistication and technology to make it not be rigged. I cannot guarantee that the 2027 presidential election will not be rigged. That would be utopian.
“It has not happened in America, and till today, the Democrats still think that Kamala Harris won the last election, and Trump also believes he won in 2020. Wherever human beings conduct elections, there must be a little undermining of the processes. Nigeria is not going to be different,” he quipped bluntly.
A few months to the poll, election stakeholders and hapless Nigerians can only wait anxiously with bated breath and perhaps bank on divine intervention for successful polls next year. The casualties will certainly not be only the losers but the victims that will be killed, maimed and impoverished.
