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By Chinenye Anuforo, [email protected]
The year 2023 was a remarkable year even with some setbacks recorded in the sector. As we have seen another new year, 2024, analysts, consultancy firms and various industry players in the country and the world are once again posting their predictions for the telecommunications industry in 2024.
However, almost all of these predictions share a common theme which is the expected impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the industry this year.
The message is that AI’s influence will pervade all areas, ranging from networks, data centres, internet-of-things (IoT), devices and semiconductors, to network operations, customer service and experience management, data security, marketing and business transformation.
The promised benefits of AI will be tempered by its challenging and potentially hugely disruptive implications, and observers hope that 2024 will see further clarification as to how and where it can be usefully and productively employed.
Current research and forecasts suggest the global digital technology sector, driven by innovations in AI, IoT, cloud computing, and big data analytics, may surpass $5 trillion by 2024. This projection, supported by data from organizations like the International Data Corporation, reflects the sector’s exponential growth, mirroring the rapid pace of digital adoption across various industries.
In 2023, Dr. Tijani Bosun, the Nigerian Minister of Communications, Innovation & Digital Economy, had unveiled a new plan that revolves around Knowledge, Policy, Infrastructure Innovation and Trade, that will serve as tech economy development catalyst for four years.
Bosun, titled the blueprint: Accelerating our Collective Prosperity through Technical Efficiency’ and expressed optimism that if the five pillars are critically exploited and development policies framed around them, in the next four years, the dividend will be a Nigeria with digital capabilities like most developed countries of the world.
Experts in the sector believe that if the Minister plans take its course as unveiled, this would drive some investments and growth in the sector this year.
On their on part, analysts at PwC expect to see a declining growth rate in both fixed and mobile broadband network investment in 2024 and beyond. Equipment vendors too are cautious, with Nokia anticipating a challenging mobile broadband market in 2024.
In the fixed broadband market, the majority view is that fibre broadband deployments providing 10Gb connectivity will continue expanding in most developed and developing markets, with hoped for improvements flowing from government funding in the year.
Technological advancements such as quantum computing and 5G networks are poised to be major market catalysts. Quantum computing, although in nascent stages, holds the potential to revolutionize industries by solving complex computational problems. Similarly, the rollout of 5G networks is expected to significantly enhance IoT applications and connectivity, fundamentally changing how businesses and consumers interact with technology. The African Digital Landscape
“In 2023, the performance of 5G is a focus of predictions for the year but networks continue to fall short on their promise to deliver new value-added services that exploit 5G’s additional bandwidth”, say network data and performance analyst firm Ookla, with service providers struggling to recover their investments in the technology.
“This year the Industry needs to find ways to monetize 5G beyond fixed wireless access use cases, and to support future investment into standalone (SA) 5G and 5G Advanced, Ookla added.
However, the anticipated commercialization of key technologies and features of 3GPP Release-17 during 2024 may improve the prospects for monetization of 5G. These include reduced capability (RedCap) IoT technology, which is already being trialled by the likes of Huawei and Ericsson and is expected to progress towards wider commercial deployment in the coming year.
The economic downturn in 2023 had the effect of holding back the development of satellite-based 5G says Juniper Research, but the rapid growth in 5G subscriptions worldwide (reaching 1.6 billion by end-2023) has significantly improved the value proposition for satellite-based services.
Consulting firm Deloitte reports growing interest in satellite’s capabilities to extend connectivity, and expects to see an expanding ecosystem of satellite and mobile network operators, handset manufacturers and semiconductor companies, with over 220 million smartphones capable of connecting with satellite services to be sold in 2024.
Equipment vendor Ericsson believes that the fully integrated system-on-chip (SoC) solutions expected in 2024 will help to drive NTN, providing the necessary economies of scale needed for global adoption of satellite services in cellular devices. In its annual Mobility Report, the company said that services can be expected to initially focus on text messaging and low-data-rate services.
In the fixed broadband market, the continued expansion of fibre deployments in both developed and developing markets is, in turn, creating a need for upgrades to home Wi-Fi networks in order to pass on the increased bandwidth to devices in the home, says the Wireless Broadband Alliance.
Key trends such as the proliferation of cloud gaming services, which will stimulate the demand for high-speed and low-latency connectivity, will drive demand for more bandwidth in the home.
One result of which will be the rapid adoption of Wi-Fi 6E and Wi- Fi 7, which also have the advantage of being able to access additional spectrum in the 6GHz band as more countries open the band, according to the WBA.
At the same time, WBA expects to see pilot projects and trials of TIP Open Wi-Fi – the Telecom Infra Project’s open source, multi-vendor Wi-Fi architecture – proliferating in developing countries and price-sensitive markets where its cost-effectiveness and open disaggregated model are expected to prove attractive.
According to Deloitte, the telecoms sector’s drive to further reduce its carbon footprint in 2024 will add impetus to the transition from copper wire networks to energy-efficient fibre optics, the decommissioning of power-intensive 3G networks, and the use of power-saving technologies in 5G radio gear.
Deloitte predicts that telcos worldwide may be able to reduce their carbon footprint by 2%, or 15 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, and do the same again in 2025.
Juniper Research also expects operators to focus on new initiatives intended to reduce the environmental impact of telecoms in the year ahead. While increased network automation through measures such as AI and machine learning will generate efficiency gains, the need for more base stations and wider geographical coverage, coupled with the introduction of higher frequency bands, will mean a greater focus for base stations and other network equipment to use less energy.
Similarly, in data centres, AI is accelerating increases in density while at the same time doubling or tripling power consumption levels, says networking and data centre equipment vendor NTT. This is “playing havoc with enterprises net zero targets” and necessitating a closer working partnership with energy providers to explore more sustainable options with techniques such as liquid immersion cooling, district heating projects, and solar panels in space.
While 5G services strive to deliver on performance and ROI, 2024 will also mark the official start of the 6G race according to research company Omdia.
