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With 2023 general elections over except for the ongoing and soon-to-commence legal fireworks, President Muhammadu Buhari should have his eyes fixed on the next major national episode which he had earlier conceived to hold in 2022.
Moved from 2022 to late April this year and later May 3-6, it is clear that time is not on President Buhari’s side to deliver his dream digital census. The only plausible and feasible thing to do now is to postpone the census by at least two months. While some persons close to the President have continued to insist that the census must go ahead as scheduled for early May, others think a postponement is needed to give the National Population Commission (NPC) ample time to perfect its preparations. There is even a third leg of the argument: those calling for outright cancellation of the census. This is off the mark. Cancellation of the census is the equivalent of national unseriousness.
However, the argument for postponement by two months appears more logical. That way, Buhari would have effectively laid the foundation for a credible, verifiable and effective tech-enabled census different from any of the previous ones.
The 2023 general elections and the census were thought to be Buhari’s parting legacies. One of them has happened, the general elections, but it has turned out more contentious than anticipated. All election watchers, both local and international, scored the conduct of the election low. This is in spite of the huge money spent and the infusion of technology into the electoral process.
Analysts have argued that while Buhari may have fared well in the area of infrastructure, especially roads and railway, his best legacies would be to conduct a free, fair and less bloody general elections as well as deliver a credible census, a good 17 years after the last census in 2006.
On both critical national issues, Buhari took the first major steps in a journey of a thousand miles. First, he gave Nigerians a new Electoral Act embedded with key antidotes against election rigging and grifting. The Electoral Act, aside setting Buhari apart from his predecessors as a leader who means well for Nigeria and democracy, also gives the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the legal latitude to introduce technology into the nation’s electoral process.
Buhari’s other legacy is the 2023 census. Before now, most, if not all, Nigeria censuses had been subjects of disputation. They had been rated as censored censuses and therefore unreliable and discredited.
Obviously, the President is willing to make good his promise of a credible census. Not only him, other notable voices have given full backing to the exercise, including the National Council of State (NCS), former President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). For a country like Nigeria, census ought not to be conducted more than 10 years apart. Holding a national census more than 10 years apart is not ideal for national planning, going by the recommendation of the United Nations (UN). This makes the case of the 2023 census very imperative.
It bears restating that a census is not a jamboree or a statistical exercise in futility. It is meant to help in national planning, delineate the demographics of a nation as well as map out population densities of the various federating components of such nation to aid in moments of national emergencies, distribution of resources and public utilities including schools, hospitals, etcetera.
A good census is one adjudged to have reliable and verifiable data. This will guide all strata of government, from federal to local governments, on how best to prioritise development and distribution of resources and infrastructure in education, healthcare, water resources and general needs of the people.
A credible census is critical in national planning and development. It also holds a compass for investors, foreign and local. One of the complaints of foreign investors about Nigeria is the lack of credible and current data on Nigeria’s demographics. At international conferences and business meetings, many investors have bemoaned the absence of contemporary data on Nigeria that would help them make intelligence-based decisions on where, what and when to invest in the country. It therefore means that cancelling the census amounts to keeping development in abeyance.
Cancelling the 2023 census under any guise accentuates the unseriousness of the nation and projects Nigeria in bad light in the comity of nations. It portrays Nigeria as pathetically primitive given that many nations across the globe have successfully conducted their censuses within agreed time frame of five to 10 years.
In countries where there had been a break from the routine five to 10 years interval, such situation only arose on account of war. Nigeria is not at war. Election is not war. Besides, Nigeria’s elections held in the months of February and March, 2023. It means that the result of the census was not intended to be used to determine outcome of the elections as some have alleged.
To argue that the census is coming too close after the general elections is to live with the mindset that elections approximate to war. Far be it. On the contrary, Nigerians should live with the consciousness that election is a democratic festival to celebrate the liberty of the people to freely choose their leaders. Nigerians should stop beating the drums of Armageddon every election year. Nigeria ought to be a pacesetter in Africa in terms of electoral purity but she’s become the poster nation for all that is wrong in Africa during election. It’s a thing to be ashamed of.
NPC projects that the census will create about 3 million ad hoc jobs. This will help mitigate the growing employment in the country particularly among the youths. But NPC should hasten the process. The commission should move faster with sensitization, publicity, public enlightenment, training of facilitators just so it can deliver a credible, tech-driven census.
Ghana has achieved national census frequency of every 10 years, same as Singapore. South Africa was holding census every five years but had to push it to every 10 years. South Korea, Canada, and Japan hold census every five years. India, with a 2022 population of 1.417 billion, according to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects data, has maintained a 10-year frequency since 1872 when the first census was conducted. Nigeria has no reason not to conduct credible census at least every 10 years.
We have failed in the past. This time, NPC should match its words with action. The incoming government should never jettison the idea of a census this year. To do so is to announce to foreign investors, the global community and the United Nations Population Fund that we are not a people to be taken seriously.
