By Chinelo Obogo

Despite the number of registered political parties in Nigeria, which at present is put at over 28, there appear to be no opposition  party in the country, as  the major one, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is still struggling to come out of its self-inflicted crisis. As 2019 approaches, analysts are of the view that  except steps are taken to refocuse the opposition parties, they  may eventually go into extinction.

At the inception of the fourth republic in 1999, there were three major strong parties; the Alliance for Democracy (AD) which had a strong hold in the South-west, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which controlled the South-east, South-south and some parts of North and the All Peoples Party (APP) which held sway in the North-west and North-east zones of the country.

By 2002, three more political parties were added to the mix. They were: the National Democratic Party (NDP), the All Progressives Grand Alliance, (APGA) and United Nigerian Peoples Party (UNPP). But additional political parties were registered after then, and at a time, the country had over 60 of them, but with less than three of the lot, been formidable. By 2007, the PDP gained control of more than two-thirds of the states and the National Assembly and it prided itself as the largest party in Africa; hence one of its former national chairmen, Vincent Ogbulafor was notoriously quoted to have said that the party would be in power for the next 60 years.

The metamorphosis of opposition parties

The APP which was in control of some northern states changed its name to the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), to accommodate a few that left from other smaller parties, to join it. But shortly before the 2011 polls, a faction of the party, loyal to General Muhammadu Buhari, pulled out to form the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC. And towards the 2015 polls, CPC, ACN, ANPP and others again merged, to form the All Progressives Congress (APC). 

Before then, by 2007, the AD which used to control the South West states had been weakened considerably, as it could not boast of any state. In 2011, the Labour Party (LP) was in control of Ondo State, through Governor Segun Mimiko. He was however defected to the PDP, shortly after winning his second term election, leaving the LP in a coma.  In the case of APGA, it started with two states in 2011; Imo and Anambra, but Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo state, who was elected on the platform of APGA in 2011, joined the parties that merged to form the APC and so APGA too, was left with one state. As it stands, APC has 24 states, PDP has 11 states and APGA has one.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)

While PDP was in power, especially during the tenure of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, the APC which was the main opposition party at the time and civil society organisations were very active and critical of the PDP-led government’s policies, thus, putting the ruling party on its toes. But like the Democratic Party in the US which was in power for eight years, and recently lost the presidential election to the Republicans, the PDP did not see its defeat coming.

After its loss, the party which has never been in opposition was in disarray, and its situation was made worse by the wave of defections that hit the party. Barely few months later, the party was gasping for breath and survival, and insiders are of the view that the governors were not ready to finance the party.

After its loss, the party tried to adjust to its new opposition role. Few months down the line, in one of the gathering of party members in Port Harcourt, its former spokesperson, Olisa Metuh encouraged party members to remain steadfast and united, promising that the party would bounce back. He also promised that the party would put the APC on its toes.

The PDP started strongly by always “checking” on the APC administration. Metuh was consistently issuing statements and addressing press conferences on policy matters every other day. Besides Metuh, other outspoken members of the PDP included former Minister of Aviation, Femi Fani-Kayode, former presidential aide, Doyin Okupe, and the Governor of Ekiti state, Ayodele Fayose, who variously voiced opposition to the policies and programmes of the Buhari administration.

Unfortunately, no sooner had the barrage of criticisms from the vocal members of the PDP against some policies of the federal government, began gaining momentum than some of them were arrested and slammed with corruption charges. Charges of alleged fraud were brought against Metuh, Fani-Kayode, Fayose and other vocal members of the PDP by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

This singular act, made the party lose its vigour and steam and could barely raise its voice or criticise any of the policies of the FG anymore.  Many of its members went into hiding and were afraid to voice opposition to the APC government because of the fear of the unknown.

Another factor that may be responsible for the weakening role of the party is the in-fighting among members. At present, the party has two factions with each claiming control of the party. There is a group backed by the governors elected on the platform of the party, and it has former Kaduna governor, Ahmed Makarfi, as caretaker chairman. Another faction is led by Ali Modu Sheriff, who is also laying claim to the national chairmanship of the party.

This tussle between Sheriff and Makarfi did not help matters as it further weakened the party and gave some Senators who were elected on its platform the legal reason for defection. Less than two months ago, three senators from Plateau, Akwa Ibom and Ondo that were elected on the platform of the PDP defected to the APC on the floor of the Senate, citing the leadership crisis within the party as reason for their actions.

Explaining what could be responsible for the lot of the opposition parties in Nigeria, today, a chieftain of APGA, Chief Maxi Okwu, said opposition parties are in a coma because of a number of factors.

According to him, opposition politics and the first generation civil society organisations were  south-west based. He further argued that the change of government that occurred on May 29, 2015, was made possible by the political forces in the South-west that had traditionally been in the opposition.

He further added that: “the main chunk of the civil society elements had been friendly, to this political platform, and felt entitled to ownership of this government. Unfortunately, the government has become a total disappointment and has left most of these groups in a quandary. I believe that as soon as the shock wears off along with the increasingly insipid and non-performing government, the progressive elements and pro-active civil society organisations would recover their soul and mission.”

On the silence of the opposition after the elections, he said that with the exception of few, most of the others were mere briefcase associations, or at best glorified NGOs, but masquerading as political parties.

Would more opposition chieftains join the APC?

There are speculations already that some state governors in the opposition party are making behind-the-scene moves to either defect to the ruling party or use an alternative platform to realise their ambitions.  It is being speculated that one of the governors  from the South who was elected on the platform of the PDP, has been secretly funding the APC both at the state and the federal level, and plans to defect possibly before the end of the first quarter of this year. When he eventually defects, it is believed that PDP members in the State House of Assembly would defect to the APC in solidarity, with him.

In Ekiti state, the incumbent governor, Ayo Fayose, who incidentally is the chairman of the PDP Governors Forum, was reported to have stated that he was yet to decide the political platform on which his supporters would contest next year’s governorship election.

In Anambra State, there were speculations that the incumbent governor Willie Obiano, who was elected on the platform of APGA may defect to the APC to contest the elections even though he has denied it several times. The rumours became rife after the Minister of Labour and Productivity, Chris Ngige, was reported to have stated that Obiano would win the governorship election on the condition that he joined the APC.

In Ebonyi State, the governor, Dave Umahi, who was also elected on the platform of the PDP, publicly declared that Ebonyi State would support the re-election bid of President Buhari in 2019, which prompted many to speculate that he may also defect to the ruling party.

A Lagos based lawyer and political analyst, Martins Agoziem, attributed this trend to the fear that those in the opposition parties harbour that they may not win re-elections in their states, if they do not have the backing of the federal government.

He said: “With the recent governorship elections in Edo and Ondo where the APC won, there is very palpable fear among opposition governors that they may not get re-elected if they do not move to the ruling party. Unfortunately, this does not speak well for our democracy. In the US, the democrats just lost the presidential election and lost many seats in congress despite the fact that they were in power for eight years. But did you ever hear that democrats started defecting to the Republican Party? This goes to show that many of our politicians only gravitate towards platforms they feel they can benefit from. Most of them have no principles.”   

Comparing Nigeria to the US

Like the PDP, the US Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress in 2009. They had 257 members in the House of Representatives and 57 members in the Senate. But by the 2016 election, the Democrats had their numbers in the House reduced to 188 members, while it saw them get two extra seats in the Senate, at a total of 48, it still leaves them without the majority they once had. Democrats also have 10 fewer governorships in 2016 than they did in 2008, reducing their total number of state executives from 28 to 18.

In 2008, Democrats controlled both chambers of 27 state legislatures and had split control over eight of other state legislatures, while Republicans controlled both chambers of 14 state legislatures. By 2015, the number of Democrats-controlled state legislators had plummeted to 11 while the Republicans’ number increased to 30 state legislatures

Democratic governors attributed the losses experienced in 2014 specifically to a few factors, including “bad luck, bad timing and an unpopular president.”

There are only 18 Democratic governors left across the nation, and the survivors have some theories about why Democrats have been swept out of state houses all over the country in recent years. But none of them are about the substance of the party’s policies.