By Musa Isa Abubakar
Is Turji dead or alive? That was a question that resonated among Zamfara residents when the Minister for Defence, Badaru Abubakar visited the state recently.
By appearance, the former Jigawa State governor could be mistaken for Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese general, military strategist and philosopher. But, the Nigerian defence minister’s visit to security-challenged Zamfara State merely revealed his comic side. Being a typical politician, the minister spoke rather jocularly than in earnest when he made a political statement regarding the whereabouts of the notorious bandit kingpin, Bello Turji. He had on the occasion requested the security agents to get him ‘dead or alive’.
It was a statement that demands thorough scrutiny and in-depth analysis by pundits because, apart from its serious security implications, it also has political undertones. Coming shortly after the cabinet reshuffle by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, during which some ministers narrowly escaped the presidential axe, it was as if the minister was gloating.
It is a well-known fact that the Jigawa State chapter of the All Progressive Congress (APC) has been engulfed in crisis lately. Locked in fight are between the supporters of the former governor, Badaru Abubakar, and those of the incumbent governor, Umar Namadi. Supporters of both factions have come up with different allegations to prop their case with some threatening to join the PDP. Amid this backdrop, a meeting between Badaru and Governor Dauda Lawal, an adversary of Badaru’s fellow minister, Bello Matawalle from Zamfara, could not have passed, unnoticed.
It explains why some observers are of the view that Badaru Abubakar’s sudden visit to Katsina’s Governor Dauda Lawal more than meets the eye. In any case, the manifest security challenges that have sprung up in the state since he made the visit have become the subject of varied interpretations; particularly with upsurge of attacks by the criminal elements around the north-western axis of Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kano. Then, there is the emergence of a new terror group, Lakurawa.
Talking of getting Turji dead or alive, there was nothing to suggest a strong commitment to make the statement effective. Which is why close watchers of recent political happenings in Badaru’s home State of Jigawa, have since expressed a cautious view that the Katsina meeting as anything but part of any real quest to address the security situation in that part of the country.
In any case, the absence of Bello Matawalle, the minister of state for defence, who holds direct stake in the matter of Zamfara’s security, suggests there could be some mind games at play. Regardless of Matawalle’s complex relationship with Governor Dauda Lawal, his exclusion from a meeting of such magnitude could be a warning signal of a fractured relationship within the strategic ministry.
In Nigeria’s high-stake political landscape, especially under President Tinubu’s administration, loyalty can be a critical indicator as competence. The president, who has prioritised unity within his party and among his allies, would do well to keep an eye on the situation. In a region plagued by insecurity, political stability is essential, and any perceived shifts in loyalty could have destabilising and even catastrophic, consequences for President Tinubu and his party, the APC.
If indeed Badaru harbours ambitions beyond his current position, or he is eyeing a seismic political shift, it could be a warning sign for President Tinubu to be mindful of where his defence minister’s true allegiance truly lies.
Ultimately, while the optics of the most recent meeting may be explained away as a routine effort to address regional concerns and it may well be, seasoned observers nonetheless recognise the potential negative implications. At a time when party loyalty is as essential as the government’s track record of performance, the president must ensure that his ministers’ priorities are fully aligned with his administration’s core objectives.
Based on Badaru’s history of political pragmatism, it would not be surprising if he was testing the waters; that is, quietly shifting his alliances in anticipation of impending power play. While one is wont to concede that all this could be purely speculative, those who have encountered Badaru’s political sagacity are not in a hurry to dismiss the man’s ability to plan several steps ahead.
In the political chessboard of Nigeria, smart moves like these rarely go unnoticed. Certainly not to deep political thinkers like President Tinubu. But then again, sometimes, even the most astute of politicians could get blindsided by crafty political players.
In the light of the above, if President Tinubu prioritises a cohesive defence strategy, he should not disregard the subtle cues emerging from Badaru’s latest meeting. Any apparent attempt to circumvent established lines of communication with his minister of state could be the first step in a broader negative strategy that begins to shift the balance of power within the party.
The president must keep a close watch to ensure that Badaru’s role in the defence ministry remains focused on national security, not mixed with personal alliances or political manoeuvers that could disrupt the administration’s priorities.
As Nigeria faces its complex security landscape, unity within the ranks of the national leadership is vital. Badaru’s actions may be signalling a pivot, as such, in a political ecosystem as sensitive as Nigeria’s; even a subtle shift in alliances could have far-reaching consequences.
For President Tinubu, now is the time to address potential cracks in his administration, ensuring that his ministers’ focus remains on governance, devoid of the distracting influence and negative mix of clashing political ambitions.