Worsening insecurity, flood threat may trigger nationwide food crisis,

By Chinyere Anyanwu

Agriculture experts and social scientists have raised fresh fears over Nigeria’s food security outlook, warning that escalating insecurity and forecasts of severe flooding could significantly reduce crop production across key agricultural belts this year.

They noted that the twin threats are already discouraging farming activities and disrupting food supply chains, a development that raises fears of shortages and fresh spikes in food prices if proactive interventions are not urgently implemented by government and relevant stakeholders.

Insecurity, which is spreading across the country like wild fire, has left the country reeling under its impact, especially in its food system.

In addition, the recent prediction of flooding in 33 states by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has heightened the fears of fresh food crisis and hike in prices unless urgent preventive measures are taken.

Reacting to the challenge, the President of the National Palm Produce Association of Nigeria, Alphonsus Inyang, said the problem of food insecurity, which has become pronounced in Nigeria, would continue if the government does nothing about it.

Inyang noted that, “Nigeria has been experiencing these two hydra-headed problems of floods every year in farming communities, in largely agrarian areas, and the problem of insecurity over some years. Sometimes it looks to me as if NiMETH is not working for the government or is not a government agency.

“We expect an inter-agency collaboration between NiMETH, which predicts weather conditions and climatic conditions, and the Ministries, Departments, and Agencies of government (MDAs), including state governments, who are supposed to be the ones to mitigate all these consequences of adverse weather conditions, including flash flooding and drought. Every time flood comes to Nigeria, it meets us unprepared. And these things keep happening.

“And now, insecurity in farming communities has become a huge problem that we don’t know what to do about it.

“We have been fighting insecurity since 2007, when Boko Haram started. For how long will farmers continue to be paying taxes and tolls to terrorists? For how long will farmers continue to be sharing farm harvest with criminals and terrorists? For how long will farmers continue to be going to farms in battles even while paying taxes. Farmers now pay taxes to local governments, state governments, the Federal Government, and to terrorist groups. And this problem is like nobody is doing anything about it.

“So, looking at all these and food security, we can only resort to prayer and fasting. Farmers can only continue in prayer.”

Also commenting, Mogaji, a food security and agribusiness expert, said policy decisions taken before the onset of severe flooding will determine whether the country experiences food shortages and rising prices between the later part of this year.

Mogaji said, “I am more concerned about policy directions towards October, November and December because food prices may escalate due to floods predicted in 33 states.

“If the government takes the right decisions before June 20, we will be able to avert a food crisis later in the year,” he said.

Mogaji described flooding as one of the major threats to agricultural production, noting that it often destroys farmlands, displaces farming communities and disrupts food supply chains.

He, therefore, urged governments at all levels to strengthen preparedness measures by supporting vulnerable farmers, improving flood-control infrastructure, and implementing timely agricultural interventions.

The expert, who explained that previous experiences show that delayed responses to flood warnings usually resulted in reduced harvests and higher food prices, however, noted that the timely distribution of fertilisers and other farm inputs in 2024 contributed to improved food production in 2025, highlighting the benefits of coordinated interventions.

According to him, sustaining such measures and aligning support with farmers’ planting calendars across regions will help mitigate the impact of the anticipated flooding.

He also called for stronger engagement with rural farming communities through extension services, mentorship programmes and improved access to agricultural support.

He stressed the need for decentralised markets and input distribution systems to help farmers remain productive despite emerging climate-related challenges.

The expert said proactive planning and coordinated action by government agencies, farmers and other stakeholders would be critical to safeguarding national food security in the months ahead.

He expressed optimism that, with the right policies and timely interventions, Nigeria could minimise potential losses and maintain stable food supplies despite the flood threat.