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I had this strong urge to return to discuss insecurity from the perspective of personnel training, deployment and on the job efficiency. It is inconceivable to hear about troop ambush and decimation by bands of rascals and vandals. I was on the thought when I realized I had promised my ardent readers to write on who is more likely to win the 2027 presidential race.
Before we go into the nitty gritty of the subject matter, it is very crucial to make the point that elections are won or lost before the actual voting takes place. Events preceding the actual act of voting shape views and opinions and lead people to conclusions.
If we go by the view, it is safe to say the opposition has lost ground already. They allowed the ruling party seize the moment and determine events. One outcome is that opposition political parties have been in disarray since the last election took place in 2023. Rather than recover and steady themselves, ready to give the ruling party a tough “fight” they have gone from one problem to the other.
Some of them who had governors have lost them to the ruling party, an action that would not have been if the opposition knew what to do and activities that ought to engage their attention. One of them would been to work hard to have the courts make judicial pronouncement on the very important subject of jumping to other political parties with offices won on another platform.
They ought to have insisted also on the National Assembly giving clarity on the law regarding defections by expressly banning political office holders from decamping to another party taking along with them the position they won in the election. If they had done these things it is very possible they would have had a result that would have saved the party the truama it is passing through now. The growth of our democracy would also have been guaranteed.
It is puzzling indeed why no one has given thought to election sequence reordering. Many of us still believe the right thing should be bottom up. Starting with the presidential election indirectly accelerates the bandwagon effect syndrome. It also contributes to lose of interest or what is more popularly known as voter apathy including provocation of instability. Our presidential election has become akin to sovereign nations embarking on wars against each other. This shouldn’t be the case at all.
The scene would remain with the observation as we begin another process towards the general elections in January, next year. Religion, ethnicity and money would remain key factors in producing the next president. The cost of the forms alone has become like someone about to purchase land filled with underground. Increasingly, running for the country’s presidency has become a game for only persons with very deep pockets.
The irony in all of this is that those able to purchase the forms and sponsor the campaigns are not the productive kind of citizens. Yes they are very wealthy but they are essentially rental people who make such huge gains from government purse under various guises. If it is not the crudest form of corruption then it is through highly inflated contracts on white elephant projects. Today we see budgets running in trillions yet no one is able to see verifiable impact in any sector of national life.
We had crude oil same time with the Arab nations, those countries have become modern settlements. They are into the jet era while we are still crawling like babies, lost in thought, wondering how we got into terrible mess. There is confusion and hope is fading and these as usual would be carried into the elections. It is even worse now than what we had to contend with in the past. The hunger level is just terrible. It is throwing up resentment. The North which is very adept at politics is fuming and getting ready to confront a target they do not exactly know at present.
The ruling party, All Progressive Congress ( APC) is their creation,. They brought the religious and ethnic flavour to bear on the party but they have just found out division in nation building throws up contradictions that add up to muddle up everything. It destroys sense of ownership; currently there is no sense of a buy-in; this is taking a toll on the nation.
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The North isn’t happy with the incumbent president, Senator Bola Tinubu. Analysts think this would show in the polls. Truth is that the elite of the north are bent on sticking to the same man the people of the lower rungs are railing against. The poor are just that – they are like the wind vane tossed about the wind. In the end they would face the direction directed by their well-to-do leaders.
Northern elites may not like President Tinubu but they are smart enough to know he remains their best bet for now. They may not be getting “returns” as they were used to under President Tinubu, but they won’t abandon him because the song of a united Nigeria always on the mouth of Tinubu is a soothing melody in their ears and hearts. Tinubu is the last visible link the North has now to the west. It means much to them.
What this means is that when the chips are down there won’t be massive shift. The West and North Central are in that same mould. For the West it the tribal card: “it is our son that is ruling.” Add up everything, including matters about the Nigerian Factor, President Tinubu is the candidate to beat.
The main opposition would have either Atiku Abukakar or Peter Obi to square against the incumbent president. Both are strong forces. The challenge is buried in the party’s inability to have taken a stand early on zoning. Insisting it is free for all has taken away shine from their political party, African Democratic Congress ( ADC). Nigerians agree it is the turn of the South to conclude their tenure of eight years before power can return to the North.
It would have been more tactically right to run with the wind and in that case – Peter Obi ought to have jelled with the citizens who obviously desire a younger, better educated citizen to take over. If this had happened Obi’s natural catchment areas would have positively affected in such a manner the fortunes of the party we ought have grown very big.
This hasn’t been the case, so the re-baptized political platform is moving along without vibrancy. So much apprehension surrounds its future arising from two strong grounds, the hanging court cases and who between Atiku and Obi would emerge the party’s presidential candidate.
The fear factor has to do with the growing feeling that courts have become tools in the hands of those who control power. Many Nigerians fear ADC could be hit badly when it matters most. The other truth would be if Obi doesn’t get the ADC ticket even if he doesn’t leave the party the house won’t be the same. South East under such climate will rather stay or pitch tent with Tinubu.
If Obi squares up against Tinubu it will be a “rumble in the garden”, a tough call. Would Obi be able to upstage Tinubu? Tall order. Nigerians know some of the reasons and they are giving them a mention.
Someone said to me “obi will win if there is credible election”. He then asked would there be credible election ? My answer was,”If you ask me who then do I ask?” Even now I don’t know who to ask.
