The Osun tsunami

If you consider all the incredible things that happened in Osun State long before and immediately before the election of August 15, 2026 you would be surprised, perhaps shocked, that Governor Ademola Adeleke won the poll. He scored 511, 067 votes while his closest opponent, Mr Bolaji Oyebamiji of the APC got 444, 815 votes. Dr Najeem Salaam of the ADC was a distant third with a meagre 17, 180 votes. Adeleke won in 19 of the 30 Local Government Areas, dancing away with 50.8% of the total votes.

Many people in and outside of Osun State must have thought that the problems facing Adeleke were insurmountable and that his second term bid was clearly a pie in the sky. Here are the facts: His party, the PDP, was in tatters and Adeleke thought that the solution was for him to leave the uncertainty that enveloped the party to a place of certainty, the APC. The big guys in the APC mounted a road block against him because his entry would affect their political ambitions. An APC member and former Deputy Governor of the State, Mr Iyiola Omisore even said: “I have not seen a situation where a Governor is struggling to join another party. If your party is strong and your house is in order, why the pressure to jump ship?” Adeleke therefore decided to pitch his tent with a little known party called Accord.

As the campaigns came on stream there was violence in at least 12 Local Government Areas and about 30 persons had lost their lives. Governor Adeleke then accused the ex-Governor and Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Gboyega Oyetola and ex-Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola of using federal might to intimidate supporters of Accord Party. The party even petitioned the Inspector -General of Police requesting him to redeploy the Commissioner of Police from Osun State because he was allegedly turning the police in the State to a branch of the APC. As this was going on, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) struck. It accused the Osun State Government of massive withdrawal of money before the election. It froze the account of the State Government in First Bank. That action was intended to paralyse the government and many people thought that was a political gesture that would have favoured the APC in the election. But President Bola Tinubu moved smartly to save the situation. He asked the EFCC to cause a lifting of the freeze on the account. Adeleke who had taken the EFCC to court decided to dance in jubilation. But the dancing was truncated by a howitzer from Mr Francis Fadahunsi, an APC Senator representing Osun East. He was said to have told APC followers in Yoruba to kill followers of Accord Party wherever they found them. When this remark caused an uproar, the police decided to invite him for questioning. Meanwhile, his media office decided to interpret his statement by saying that his comment was “purely political and metaphorical” and that he was merely urging voters to kill Osun Accord with votes, not violence. That explanation was hanging in the sky and no one, except a fool, could believe it. Some lies are believable but this one was not. After he left the Police Station, Mr Fadahunsi said: “I am a Yoruba man. If a Hausa or Igbo person is interpreting, it may not be correct. Yoruba means a lot of things. What I said was that between now and Saturday we will kill them with our votes.” These words from Fadahunsi were published on page three of The Nation newspaper of August 13, 2026. Even his English interpretation (above) of what he said in Yoruba has confirmed that he was engaging in a disreputable pursuit of victory with violence. Was the election to be held “between now and Saturday” so that the Accord Party would be killed with votes “between now and Saturday?” No. Election was to be held on Saturday only, not on several days before Saturday. So his act of revisionism has failed woefully to convince any right thinking person that he was an innocent bystander in the violence that engulfed the State before the election. Was it Bacchus or Narcissus that was assaulting his being when he said those horrible words? He alone can answer that question. Since the security personnel have chosen to forgive him for this blatant incitement he has done the honourable thing by apologising to the people of Osun. When American President, Abraham Lincoln said that the “ballot is stronger than the bullet” he did not have irresponsible Nigerian politicians in mind. But he was right because in Osun the ballot bullied the bullet into submission. That is why there is dancing in that territory today.

At the town hall meeting organised before the election by Arise Television, it was clear that Adeleke was the most eloquent not only in terms of his vision but also is tackling the criticisms thrown at him. He was a bundle of confidence, answering questions thrown at him without hesitation and without em em em. When he said he was a bulldozer I did see it as an exaggeration or an empty boast but as a mark of his self-confidence. At a meeting like that an incumbent was, of course, bound to have the upper hand, so he did. An incumbent has projects, buildings, bridges, roads and life changing expenditures to point to but his opponents have only criticisms of the incumbent and their own plans to put on the table. Such plans are simply that: plans on paper, not tested for implementability. In any case, I did not rate his major opponent, Oyebamiji very highly when he alleged that Adeleke had spent 97% of the State’s resources in two local governments. I suspected that he was referring to the two local governments in Ede where Adeleke comes from. No Governor can spend 97% of the State’s resources in only two out of 30 local governments without an outrage. Impossible. Was he referring to recurrent expenditure? Impossible. Was he referring to capital expenditure? Impossible. Another lie that no right thinking person could believe. I also think the Osun voters did not believe him because they must have known that the Governor had definitely spent more than 3% of the State’s resources in the other 28 LGAs. Certainly. Anyone who chooses to do a fact-checking will find this was a barefaced lie but no fact-checking is needed here. Commonsense is sufficient to disprove his claim.

Adeleke won the election because he proved to the people that he was a doer, a perfprmer, a man strong enough to do the heavy lifting in a state populated by political and economic heavyweights. Even when tension reached flash point before the election he remained unfazed. Adeleke also won because there were too many political parties, 15 in all, who were splitting their votes. Wherever there are several persons competing, the incumbent often has a better chance than the rest because he often has something to show while the others have nothing to show. Criticisms alone do not win elections. Perhaps voters did not want an increase in the number of APC controlled States which would compound the problem of Nigeria becoming a single party entity. Adeleke also won because he had plenty money to spend. Nigeria’s politics is a big money affair and as the reports have indicated all the big parties were buying votes at various rates ranging from N10, 000 to N50, 000 per voter. These monies were transferred to the bank accounts of the voters. What may they have written under “narration.” Let’s guess: “money for breakfast, lunch or dinner; money for school fees; money for corn and akara; money for recharge card; money for wedding or birthday gift; money for man no be wood; money for satchet alcohol; money for burial; money for ewedu soup; money for ijebu garri.” You can add your own ideas to this list. So is it the highest payer that got picked? I don’t know but there is evidence that there was abundant vote buying and vote selling. That action is poisoning our democracy.

It does appear that INEC did its job well with minor problems here and there. But we cannot regard this performance as a true test of its strength and resilience. It was only dealing with 2.3 million voters in 3, 763 polling units. In the 2027 election it will be dealing with about 100 million voters in 176, 000 polling units. That will be a tough test for INEC. The same goes for the security agencies. The Police and other security agencies deployed a total of about 25, 000 personnel to the State. In the 2027 election, it will not have 25, 000 persons to deploy to each State of the Federation. It will have fewer personnel. It is therefore not yet time for INEC or the Police to speak with chin-jutting pride. The true test of their competence is on the way.

For now, let us sit back and enjoy the nimble dance steps of Mr Bulldozer Adeleke and his tononono cap which is reaching the sky like the Shagari cap of the Second Republic. His win is exciting considering all the hurdles that were piled on his path. His win therefore looks much better than a win, it sounds like a demolition, like an earthquake, like a tsunami of immeasurable dimension. His success is clearly a transparent tribute to tenacity.