The crowded presidential race

If the number of politicians who have expressed interest to contest the 2027 presidential election is anything to go by, the upcoming presidential race is going to be crowded. Apart from the incumbent President Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), other aspirants include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), and former President Goodluck Jonathan, who has been given a waiver by the Turaki camp of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as the sole presidential candidate.  Jonathan is yet to confirm his interest or not in the race.

Also, former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, has purchased the nomination form to vie for the ADC presidential ticket, just as businessman, Hayatudeen Muhammed, has equally purchased the nomination form for the ADC presidential ticket. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State intends to contest the presidential election under the alliance between the Peoples Democratic Party and the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM). How this will play out is yet to be seen. For the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Prince Adewola Adebayo, was on May 9 picked by the Gombe group as presidential flag-bearer in Bauchi. Prince Adewole was the SPD presidential candidate in the 2023 election. However, the Shehu Gabam-led faction of the SDP has picked Oyo State-born Abimbola Akeem Atanda as the SDP 2027 presidential candidate. Add to the above list the presidential hopefuls of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and other marginal political parties.

As it looks presently, the 2027 presidential race is going to be crowded, contrary to earlier held opinion that it was going to be a one-man show. On face value, it appears the present colouration of the presidential race will go in favour of the incumbent. But on a critical evaluation of the situation, the crowded presidential race will produce dark horses from either side of the divide. Although the current power rotation between the North and South is a political party arrangement, it lacks constitutional backing. In other words, it is alien to the 1999 Nigerian Constitution. The implication is that any qualified Nigerian from any part of the country can present himself and vie for the presidency.

Be that as it may, the power rotation between the North and the South has ensured some level of stability in the polity from 1999 till date following the aftermath of the June 12 election annulment. Some prominent politicians who recently condemned power rotation or zoning should understand that quota system is a form of zoning of political offices and spaces in federal ministries, departments and agencies. It is also used in admission into federal unity schools, universities, polytechnics and colleges of education. If zoning is a good principle for jobs and admission purposes, it should not be evil in politics. Atiku Abubakar should rethink his position on zoning of the presidency to the South and leave the stage for candidates from the South in ADC. He should not truncate the zoning arrangement, which he benefited from immensely.

It is not easy now to say how the voters will react to the crowded presidential race in 2027. However, our voting pattern since 1960 till now can really be helpful in determining voters’ emotions and reactions ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Whether people like it or not, Nigerians usually vote based on tribe, religion social associations, godfatherism and popularity or a combination of these factors. Popularity can explain the victory of MKO Abiola during the June 12, 1993, presidential election.

The emergence of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 was to placate the people of the South-West over the unjust annulment of June 12 election, which his kinsman, Abiola, won. Therefore, the election was programmed in his favour. In recent times, INEC, the courts and other factors have played some roles in determining who wins or loses elections in Nigeria, including presidential polls.

Since zoning is a big issue in Nigerian politics, the 2027 election favours a southern candidate. The APC stands a huge chance in this regard before other political parties. The apparent fragmentation of the opposition ahead of the poll will work in favour of a more united front, plus the power of incumbency. But in politics anything can happen. An underdog or a dark horse can spring a big surprise. Therefore, the poll is as unpredictable as ever. Although the North is not favoured by the zoning calculation, a candidate from there can also spring a surprise, depending on voters’ emotions and choices.

Next week will mark our 27 years of uninterrupted democratic governance since May 29, 1999. I don’t know whether we should roll out the drums and dance to our unbroken 27 years of democracy or not. For whatever it is worth, the occasion calls for sober reflection on our democratic journey so far. May be there should be symbolic marking of the day with prayers in churches and mosques to thank God for having a democratic rule for a period of 27 years.

However, it is not yet Uhuru for Nigerians. Our democracy is fast becoming undemocratic in some ways. There is insecurity and general hardship in the country. Nothing epitomizes our undemocratic democracy than the recent APC party primary elections to select candidates for various elections. The rancor and protests that followed the party primaries in almost all the states show that our democracy lacks the very tenets of democracy. If party primaries could be characterized by coronation and imposition of candidates, violence and rigging, there is little hope for our democracy. Some people are coerced to withdraw from the race by some powerful forces within the polity.

Without internal democracy, this nascent democracy will not endure. It will also not thrive. If people cannot be allowed to choose their representatives politically, our democracy is doomed and the future is very bleak. All these will rear their ugly heads as we move towards the 2027 election. Our politics is unpredictable. Our politicians are also unpredictable. With this kind of political praxis, our founding fathers will be weeping and gnashing their teeth over what has become of our politics. Let’s weep for Nigerian politics. Let’s weep for our politicians, too. May God change their minds and make them do the right thing.