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Make no mistake about it, Nigeria’s democracy is facing a grim, bleak and uncertain future. The storm clouds are advancing unrelentingly closer to us with unpleasant consequences never imagined before. It leads to some questions: Is Nigeria losing its hard-earned democracy to the emergence of strongmen and autocrats in our politics? Is Nigeria sliding into an authoritarian regime where the persecution of political opponents is becoming the ‘new normal? Is the country dangerously drifting into one- party state, and what will be the final outcome? More disturbing, is Nigeria looking like a rogue state, where the government in power acts in a dangerously (un)predictable manner and vilifies marginalised groups and individuals who dare speak truth to power? Research has proved that these are ominous signs of countries drifting into authoritarian takeover.
The tension that gripped the country a week ago following the premeditated, senseless attack on Peter Obi, a presidential frontrunner of the African Democratic Congress(ADC) in Benin City, Edo state, has the footprints of the emergence of ‘killer squad’ in our politics. It is a present danger. Beyond that, the failed assassination attempt on Obi tops the list of the markers of democratic erosion. I am inclined to believe it was a script borrowed from the autocrats’ playbook by those who are jittery about Obi’s presidential prospects in next year’s election. The plot has many sub-plots. If one plot fails, try another. What happened in Edo state in broad day light was just a dress-rehearsal of what may happen next in the months ahead. Obi is the main target. The gunmen’s attack was a ‘performance’ from a horror movie that didn’t quite meet what the ‘sponsors’ actually wanted. If the aim wasn’t to assassinate Obi, it was to silence him in such a brutal manner that any contemplation of squaring up against the incumbent President will be an ambition extinguished. When a government in power or its surrogates begin taking steps away from democratic norms, that’s when the following steps begin to manifest in dangerous proportions. The signs include stifling dissent, and free speech, as well as assembly of political like minds of opposition parties. The bottom line is to cause people to be afraid. And for their target, the aim is to cause them to either retreat or surrender. That is the harrowing experience that Peter Obi, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, and other leaders of ADC went through last week when the party received into its fold a former President of the Nigerian Bar Association(NBA) Olumide Akpata. Akpata had told party members that his decision to join ADC was because of the integrity of Peter Obi. Many people have spoken in the same vein, that, without Obi in ADC, Tinubu will have a free ride. Akpata spoke just in time before the gunmen stormed ADC Secretariat at Ogbelaka street, off Sokponba road. The residence of Odigie-Oyegun was not spared. Property, cars, chairs were vandalized. Scores of people, among them, party chieftains were injured by the thugs. Obi’s convoy was riddled with bullets. It was a clear sign that the gunmen came for a mission: to kill.
Narrating his ordeal with teary eyes, but unbowed, Obi said, “it’s time to speak up. It’s time for those in government to act, because they are not going to be there forever”. He also lamented what his family and businesses have been through in recent times. “Even some of my colleagues no longer respond to my greetings when they see me at the airport because of fear of the government in power. It’s extremely difficult to be in opposition. Everything you have is dismantled. But if this is the end, so be it”. Even though his heart bleeds recounting his ordeal, it’s the voice of a man with unwavering convictions. Without conviction, you go for anything. That’s where Nigerian politics is right now, driven by fear and personal interests.
Chief Oyegun disclosed how the alleged assassination attempt was foiled. According to him, halfway through the proceedings at the party Secretariat, the party received intelligence report from one of the security agencies that an attack was imminent. He said members of the party were lucky to have left the venue just in time before the gunmen struck. Are you surprised that a week after the attack, no arrest has been made by the police that was present when chaos broke out . The question is, whodunit? Fingers are pointing at Gov Monday Okpehbolo. But he had since washed his hands of what happened. However, his threat to Peter Obi last year remains a disturbing reference point. In July last year, Gov Okpebholo irrationally said, henceforth, Obi must get “security clearance” from him before visiting the state, or else, “Obi’s security would not be guaranteed”. The governor was apparently unsettled over the warm reception Obi received during his visit that week to St. Philomena School of Nursing and Sciences in Edo. As a common African proverb says, ‘if a witch cries in the night and a child dies in the morning’, who killed the child is not a difficult question to answer. Gov Okpehbolo has never been ashamed of his sycophancy towards President Tinubu. Last year, he made it clear to his appointees that anyone who comes to the Executive Council(Exco) meeting without putting on the “Asiwaju cap”, risks being sacked. Just last week, he vowed that he would resign as Governor if President Tinubu fails to win the state in a landslide in next year’s presidential poll fixed for January 16. Don’t mind his poor linguistics skills, but Gov Okpebholo said this much: he bragged that as a politician who understudied late Chief Tony Anenih, “my style of politics is grassroots, not thuggery”. With words dripping with slavish sycophancy, last week he boasted in a television interview that the people of Edo state have not “thank Mr. President yet”. They will thank him through their votes”. Also last year, he promised to deliver “2 million votes” to President Tinubu, even when registered voters in the state is below that number. It doesn’t matter. Perhaps that’s what the president wants to hear. It’s a sign of loyalty.
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But history has shown that kings have lost kingdoms, warriors have lost battles and even legends have lost legacies. Who says Nigerian politics is not a fun to follow. With the likes of Okpehbolo, David Umahi and Nyesome Wike, they make politics very interesting. That’s also why the president’s spokespersons are always trying to outdo one another in attacking Mr.Peter Obi. Could this obsession part of a ‘fear factor’ or a desperate campaign haikus- whereby ‘Pull Peter Obi down’ is drilled into their heads as a primary focus in every speech, and at every event? I understand that’s the “first commandment” given to them when they were appointed.
It could also be part of taking attention away from the government’s poor performance in the face of economic and security challenges ahead of 2027 election. That’s why Peter Obi have become the talking point in many political discourse. Truth is, Obi has become president Tinubu’s nightmare. It’s not for nothing despite mass defections to the ruling APC. If telling blatant lies, fudging facts, embellishing half-truths and unleashing unwarranted attacks on perceived political perceive are disqualifying offences, perhaps all the president’s spokespersons would have been out of work long ago. But the opposite is the case.
The frequent attack on Obi at every available opportunity is part of the brief given to presidential aides. It’s a critical component of their duty. That’s why both Mr. Bayo Onanuga and Daniel Bwala are competing with each other in throwing mud on Obi. As the new face of politics in the country, the presidency, and indeed, the ruling APC, are leaving no stone unturned to ensure that Obi’s name does not appear on the presidential ballot in 2027. Mr. Bwala, the President’s aide on Policy Communication, said that much last year in an interview on Channels Television programme, ‘Politics Today’. He boasted that Obi would not get the presidential ticket of the Labour Party( LP) or that of the ADC.
APC is also alleged to be working overtime to infiltrate the ADC presidential primary. The target is not Atiku Abubakar, it’s Peter Obi. That’s an open secret. Obi is widely believed, according to a recent survey as the only formidable force against Tinubu’s re-election. Bwala also bragged that Tinubu will get at least 2 million votes from the South East in 2027, four times what he got from the zone in 2023. That’s the brief given to the “City Boys Movement” to carry out. Or has the presidential result already written ahead of January 16, 2027? Anything that can stick on Obi is part of the playbook to force him out of the presidential race. Don’t be surprised to hear in the months ahead that Obi is responsible for why Tinubu has failed to fulfill his promise on power supply, a critical sector that Tinubu campaigned on, and asked not to be voted for a second time if he failed to fix it. That’s why the cautionary advice, “Be careful what you wish for, because it might come true”, remains relevant, especially for those who aspire to higher offices. All things considered, Obi should brace up for more attacks. His refusal to give up is giving the government sleepless nights. And they are not giving up too. The fixation on Obi by the government has become an occupational disease. Obi should remain resolute. As Dwight D. Eisenhower(34th U.S. President) advised, “Get all the facts and all the good counsel you can, then do what is best” for your country. Nigeria is bigger and more important than all the plots against Obi. The challenges facing Nigerians are of immediate sort. It’s not for the faint-hearted. It’s like riding a tiger. If you get tired before the tiger, you may be swallowed.
