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The Russian invasion of its neighbour, Ukraine, on February 24, 2022 is reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland, which led to the World War II. The unprovoked aggression, which occurred by air, land and sea, took place after weeks of speculations about the attack which Russia initially denied. We note that since the World War II, this is the first time a major power would invade its neighbour in this manner. This has serious implications for Europe’s security structure and world peace.
As expected, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has justified the invasion. According to him, Russia could not feel safe, develop and exist because of alleged constant threat from modern Ukraine. He claimed that his intention was to protect people against bullying and phantom genocide. Ever since the pro-Russian president, Victor Yanukovtch, was removed from office in 2014, Putin has always accused Ukraine of being taken over by extremists. Hence, the major aim of Moscow is to overthrow Ukraine’s government purportedly to free that country from oppression.
Analysts posit that behind the invasion is Putin’s fear of the West’s military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). In recent times, Ukraine has tilted towards the European Union and NATO, a move that Moscow had long resisted. Putin is also worried about NATO’s forces and military infrastructure deployed in some member states that are near Russia’s borders. He wants them removed, saying NATO was threatening Russia’s historic future as a nation. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, added that it was absolutely mandatory for his country to “ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO.” That was the major reason Russia had backed separatists in their fight with Ukrainian forces.
What Russia has done is typical of super powers. The United States, for instance, often has cat-and-mouse relationship with its neighbour, Cuba and Venezuela, which are Russia’s strongest allies in Latin America. In the current conflict, Russia says Ukrainian forces must surrender and that the country must agree to become a neutral territory. It has attacked oil and gas facilities as well as some other important facilities like airports and military headquarters in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Already, the Russian offensive has cost hundreds of civilian lives. Thousands of Ukrainian refugees have migrated to such countries as Poland, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. The United Nations estimates that over 160,000 Ukrainians are internally displaced. Nigerians living in Ukraine are also affected by the conflict. Hundreds of Nigerian students studying in Ukraine have reportedly managed to cross the border into Poland. Some others find it difficult to leave the country as conflict has intensified. They have limited access to food, cash and some other essentials as trains, most supermarkets, ATMs have stopped working. Frustrated, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, asked for an international brigade of volunteers to help in fighting Russia.
One way or the other, Africa as a whole will also be affected by this war. Both Russia and Ukraine are major players in global agricultural market. In 2020, Russia exported agricultural products worth $4 billion to Africa, while Ukrainian’s agricultural export was worth $2.9 billion. The commodities comprise largely wheat, maize and sunflower oil. This conflict, no doubt, could significantly affect trade and global food stability.
The war has drawn worldwide condemnations and sanctions. Some Western countries have pledged to send weapons and other forms of assistance to Ukraine, a country of 44 million people. Germany, for instance, has confirmed that it will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 surface-to-air missiles. It has also halted approval on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Belgium, Greece, France, Portugal and the Czech Republic have also sent military equipment. The United States of America has vowed an additional military funding to the tune of $350 million.
The West has also targeted Russia’s economy and financial institutions, shutting off key Russian banks from the International Swift payment network. The United Kingdom has further threatened to freeze all the assets of major Russian banks. Russian airlines have also been banned from much of European airspace. Besides, the country’s city of St. Petersburg will no longer be able to host this year’s Champions League final.
Following these sweeping sanctions by Western countries and aggressive statements from NATO leaders, Putin has put his country’s nuclear forces on high alert. The United Nations (UN) and world leaders should make every effort to stop this war. Unfortunately, in a situation like this, the UN is crippled and ineffectual. Russia, China, Britain, France and the United States have veto power at the UN Security Council. Last week, for instance, Russia vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution that would have deplored Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. This is why President Zelensky of Ukraine recently urged world powers to scrap Russia’s voting power at the UN Security Council. No doubt, the UN needs serious reforms. At all times, countries must endeavour to respect the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of member states.
Ultimately, every war ends on a negotiating table. Ukraine is ready for talks. But Russia says such talks can only hold if Kyiv agrees to surrender and demilitarise. It is our hope that reason will prevail and both countries will find a diplomatic way out of the conflict. Anything outside this will spell doom for Europe and the entire world.
