Roadto 2023: INEC, credible elections and Nigeria’s future

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By Sunny Igboanugo

Let me give a background. In December 2008, I had the opportunity of sitting down with Nana Akufo-Addo, the current President of Ghana. It was the day he had just won the presidential election as the candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), the ruling party of the country at that time.

Though he had won the majority of the votes, he didn’t have the numbers to be declared President-elect, missing it by the skin of his teeth. He needed just a few more votes to clinch total victory.

I was one of the journalists from across the world who sat on the floor at the Electoral Commission of Ghana (ECG) to witness the announcement, signifying the end of about two days of tension-soaked political activities that accompanied the election. It was such a crowd that reporters had to make do with any available space.

Intriguingly, despite the slim margin, he was not announced the winner. Kwado Afari-Gyan, the chairman of the ECG, simply declared the election inconclusive and ordered a runoff between him and the late Atta Mills, the candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the main opposition party. He didn’t even bat an eyelid in making the decision.

That was my first shock. My mind went back to Nigeria, which had its own presidential election a year before that produced the late Umaru Yar’Adua and how the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of then the President Olusegun Obasanjo government practically broke the bank, bulldozed its way to install the government. It was such a flawed election that even the President, the main beneficiary, was too scandalised to accept it completely without offering his self-redeeming confession by not only attesting to its rottenness but offering immediate reforms.

How could a whole ruling party be that close to victory only to be denied when, elsewhere in many African countries where elections were mere formalities, votes were manufactured from anywhere to make up for the favoured candidates? My mind instantly raced to other countries outside Nigeria. What would have been the case in Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe, Paul Biya in Cameroon or Yuweri Musaveni of Uganda?

This couldn’t be happening in Africa, I told myself. I could also see the puzzlement on the faces of the Western journalists, who obviously had become so used to issues of flawed elections in Africa that they were completely astounded by the development, wondering what was happening, particularly when they had come armed to report bad news, as they were wont.

But there were more intrigues, if not shocks. That evening, I found myself in the home of Akufo-Addo. I wanted to know how he would react to the development. I had expected him, as the candidate of the ruling party, to be huffing and puffing in arrogance as a government candidate. However, the man I met was sober and prudent in his attitude to the entire development. When I asked him about the prospects of winning the rerun, including the outstanding election in Tain constituency in Brand Aghafo region, his answer was clear, without equivocation.

He simply told me that he was aware that Ghanaians, having voted the NPP on two previous occasions and after eight years, were already weary of continuing with the party and there might be a gangup, with the other parties coalescing with the main opposition to back Mills. He was that plain, if not audacious.

You know what? That was exactly how it turned out. By the time the runoff was held, Mills became the President on the strength of the predicted gangup and coalition.

More interesting was the total absence of government interference in the matter. John Kuffour, the Ghanaian President at that time, didn’t even lift a finger to help his own party.

Akufo-Addo didn’t also make a single reference to the President or any political superstructure during the encounter. It was simply a matter of the people of Ghana, their votes and how they would use them. No more, no less!

Ironically, that night, after the meeting with the NPP candidate, news filtered in that a powerful delegation from the Nigerian government, had actually arrived in the country to mount pressure on the President to twist the arms of the ECG boss to skew the election in Akufo-Addo’s favour.

Though I had no way of confirming its veracity, Ghanaian journalists friends I was with in my hotel told me that it was a waste of time. They were sure that the President could not dare throw his weight around, even if he wanted to. Afari-Gyan was as solid as the rock of Gibraltar, as constant as the Northern Star and as clean and straight as a pin. They were that sure about the integrity of the ECG boss.

Now, to the reason why I had to travel this long route to the past. I had my first chance of meeting Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), a few months to the Anambra State governorship election, last year. He was in Lagos to interact with media chiefs in Nigeria’s online industry. It was almost a daylong event of an admixture of serious and relaxed interactions.

Throughout the encounter, I kept looking for the telltale signs that would give him away as yet Nigeria’s electoral dud cheque. Of course, he wouldn’t be the first electoral umpire I had met.  I had actually interacted with virtually all his predecessors, right from President Ibrahim Babangida’s June 12 era till date. In each case, you didn’t have to search too long before the nickel dropped.

But somehow I couldn’t help but observe some traits similar to the ECG boss. Yes, he was not as reclusive, but quite expressive and open, even cracking jokes. I didn’t see that in his Ghanaian equivalent. Of course, it couldn’t be otherwise. One is a teacher and the other a judge. But I couldn’t miss that steely determination to deliver on the job.   

Yet, call it cynicism, call it pessimism, I simply didn’t believe him. After all, is a child stung by a bee not supposed to be wary of a housefly? His long talks about BVAS (Bimodial Voter Accreditation System), and other inventions didn’t cut ice with me. They were, to me, mere terminologies. But, I have since shifted. I’m now a convert to the new INEC.

Anambra, Ekiti and now Osun did it for me. At least, I believe that the commission has got its act together in terms of the structure. From now on, whatever would stymie future elections in Nigeria would be purely human element. It is either INEC skews its own process, deliberately, or the devil would come from outside.

That INEC has cured the various diseases, such as waiting for results to come from difficult terrains and far-flung areas, ballot box snatching, collation centre heists, which are the highway to election rigging, by the single potency of electronic result transmission, is a masterstroke that ought to keep cynics like me at bay. In other words, I’m enthused by both the soundbites and the optics of what has happened so far.

Unfortunately, the test-run of the new INEC has happened in the South alone. It would have been complete if such a major election took place in the North so that Nigerians would also see how the commission deals with the issue of child-voting, which in itself is a serious cause of concern regarding the integrity of the process. But that cannot spoil the fun.

For now, let the picturesque evidence of the commission’s performance so far cover for the anxiety in this regard. For now, let Nigerians enjoy the moment and flow in the euphoria. That of all the elections not a single person is pointing in the direction of INEC for any sort of misconduct is worth celebrating. And why would the drums be rolled out?      

Evidence all over the world shows that robust and thriving democracies are erected on the foundation of credible elections and no country where such exists suffers poverty and want, at least not at the level of African countries. It means that leaders must be afraid of being booted out of office by the electorate. They must be denied the power of impunity and staying in office on a willy-nilly structure. That is the only way credible leadership, which is the sine qua non to all round development, a blessing Nigerians have been denied for long, will emerge. That is the only way Nigeria, the sleeping giant, could wake up, rise and walk.

It is said that nature could provide man with oranges, but never orange juice. Man desirous of orange juice must prepare it. The new INEC appears to be doing just that. It seems to be leading the way to waking the sleeping giant. But not until 2023 happens would the world know how far it has got to that destination. But for now, Yakubu and his men are permitted a drink, while looking forward to calling the party!

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